Good Thursday morning. This is Annabelle Dickson.
DRIVING THE DAY
BACK IN HIS COMFORT ZONE: After another skirmish with the Labour left, Keir Starmer will today play the statesman as he signs a wide-ranging pact with his new pal Friedrich Merz.
Merzy-me: The German chancellor will touch down in London in time for an early afternoon signing of the biggest U.K.-German treaty since 1945, before he and Starmer head out of London for a defense-themed visit, where they’ll take questions from the media.
Brothers in arms: The pact has security cooperation at its heart, including the development of a new long-range missile system and a mutual assistance pledge spelling out a threat to one country would be seen as a threat to another, as POLITICO first reported a couple of weeks ago.
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Now what: Merz’s arrival in London also provides a chance to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly announced drive for weapons to Ukraine — particularly the nitty-gritty, such as who pays what in which framework, and whether Europeans will buy American weapons to be delivered to the battlefield or give weapons to Ukraine and buy replacements from the U.S.
Playing the triangle: The German leader was particularly keen for Starmer to be involved in a recent joint visit to Kyiv with French President Emmanuel Macron, in what’s been called the “triangle alliance,” as my POLITICO colleagues write in their excellent curtain-raiser this morning. On the way to Kyiv, Starmer and Merz sat at opposite ends of the train. As Starmer walked through the train, he declared, in an apparent reference to French obstructionism: “If you want to get to Germany, you have to get past France.”
For the home crowd: The PM is also keen to trumpet measures to crack down on undocumented migration, although today’s announcement on that is not entirely new.
Smash the gangs: The U.K. wants Germany to ramp up prosecutions of smuggling gangs on its turf, the substance of which was already agreed between the two interior ministries last year, my POLITICO colleague Esther Webber writes in. Downing Street stresses the necessary changes to German law will now be made by the end of the year.
So much for German efficiency! Relations between the two countries aren’t entirely smooth, however. German officials have warned it will be “some time” before all British passengers are allowed to use e-gates when entering their country — which Starmer had hailed as a win from the recent EU-U.K. “reset” agreement. Frequent travelers to Germany are set to gain access to e-gates as an interim step, however.
Brexit rebrand: On the topic of Europe, Playbook’s Sam Blewett hears the government won’t be banging on about post-Brexit “resets” anymore, with one senior official telling him it’s being banished from government comms. “Mr. Reset” himself Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister, informed a Lords select committee earlier this month that we have entered the “new strategic partnership” era of the Labour Brexit years. Catchy stuff.
Worth pondering: Starmer’s recent focus on European ententes might just be what the British public want. The British Foreign Policy Group’s annual study on public attitudes to international affairs, out today, found support for the U.K.’s “special relationship” with the U.S. has collapsed, with Brits “turning decisively towards Europe and the EU.”
SCOOP — More tariff talks: Economic reality means ministers have to deal with both. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is planning a trip to Washington at the end of this month to press for relief from Trump’s tariffs, two people familiar with the planning tell my colleagues Graham Lanktree and Dan Bloom. It’s penciled in for four to five days and would include meetings with both Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — at around the time Starmer is pressing Trump up in Scotland.
MEANWHILE IN LABOUR’S CIVIL WAR
NIGHT OF THE LONG KNIVES: Starmer loyalists may be nursing hangovers this morning after hitting the summer party circuit last night. Hours after the PM disciplined seven of his MPs following months of backbench insubordination, loyal MPs and a raft of Cabinet ministers piled into the Starmer-friendly Labour Together think tank’s summer drinks party.
Earlier on Wednesday: Newbie MPs Brian Leishman, Chris Hinchliff and Neil Duncan Jordan were stripped of the whip, along with the longer-serving Rachael Maskell, as Playbook PM covered in detail last night. Rosena Allin-Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammad Yasin had their trade envoy roles removed.
Carrots and sticks: One Labour adviser suggested to Playbook’s Sam Blewett that Team Starmer had picked three rebels from the new intake “to put their head on a spike as a warning,” thinking ahead to potentially contentious debates over issues like the child poverty strategy, special needs education reform and the autumn budget. However, some in SW1 questioned the wisdom of pulling the trigger in the midst of a blue-on-blue blame game over the last Conservative government’s handling of a major data leak.
Morgan glee man: Speaking at the Labour Together bash, Health Secretary Wes Streeting reminded MPs there would have been no Labour government without the left’s bête noire, Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney.
Hard yards: McSweeney, a former director of Labour Together, did the “hard yards” to make sure Labour “could change in order to win,” Streeting pointedly told the gathering.
Not joining the party: Starmer’s tough-guy actions don’t appear to have fully tamed the dissent, with Labour MPs openly criticizing the suspensions last night. Clive Lewis, a backbencher who has rebelled but was spared punishment, told Times Radio that silencing the role of backbench MPs was “dangerous for democracy” and made the government look “weak and brittle.”
Baz breaks cover: Over at Newsnight, a “deeply disappointed” Barry Gardiner pointed out that ex-PM Tony Blair hadn’t felt the need to suspend MPs when he faced his own welfare rebellion in 1997. “The whips do operate a lot better when they get people on their side,” he cautioned.
The big end of term question: Will Starmer see the likes of Lewis and Gardiner as leftie outliers and channel his inner hard bastard again, pulling the trigger on a reshuffle before MPs head off for the summer?
Is Keir just being Keir? The Speccie’s Tim Shipman gets more of the skinny on last week’s Cabinet away day at Chequers, reporting on plans for a “progressive pivot” to let Starmer be himself. He also has some delightful details about how great leaders handle a “smart-casual” dress code. They appear to be as confused as Playbook about the etiquette.
Job lot: The grand strategizing may be in vain if the disappointing economic news keeps coming. Ministers will be nervously assessing the latest labor market statistics, which were published at 7 a.m.
Inflation nation: Wednesday’s unexpectedly high inflation figure of 3.6 percent gets plenty of column inches this morning, with the i Paper leading on accusations that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ employment tax hike is to blame for rising prices. Seb Payne ponders in his Times column today whether we might already be in a “vibecession” — it’s the latest lingo, kids.
Migrating south: Reeves herself has left SW1 behind and touches down in South Africa for the G20 meeting of finance ministers today. She will be doing lots of drum-banging for her mega finance industry reforms, announced at Mansion House on Tuesday. There’s been some more blowback, though. John Vickers, the man tasked with de-risking the City after the banking crash, warned that retreating on those reforms would be a “very bad idea.” The Guardian has his quotes.
It’s SpAd news I’m afraid: It will not just be civil war and economic news occupying Labour aides today. The Cabinet Office will publish its eagerly anticipated SpAd list, POLITICO’s Dan Bloom hears. It’s causing anxiety among some of Starmer’s army of political advisers, who won’t just have their pay bands made public but will also find out how much they earn compared to their colleagues. The annual list isn’t delayed but it’s been a long time coming. It seems a lifetime ago that ex-Downing Street chief of staff Sue Gray was making enemies with her crusade to push down SpAd pay.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
FEELING THE HEAT: The fallout from the Afghanistan super-injunction continues to dominate the front pages, with the Sun and the Mail shifting their focus to a potential compensation bill (which the MOD says it will fight) for those affected by the data leak.
Kept in the dark: Kevan Jones, tells the Times, it is “appalling” that his Intelligence and Security Committee — which has the security clearance to scrutinize Britain’s spy agencies — was not informed about the leak.
Meanwhile on Planet Tory: Some very energetic sources have been briefing the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner on which former Cabinet ministers were opposed to secretly bringing thousands of Afghans to the U.K. James Cleverly, Suella Braverman, Laura Trott and Michael Gove all get name checks in his splash story. There isn’t a leadership vacancy yet, folks.
HAPPIER TIMES: Staffers reported a positive vibe at Wednesday’s Tory away day at the Hilton in Wembley, Playbook researcher Martin Alfonsin Larsen messages in. New CCHQ chief Mark McInnes is said to be raising the game, with a heavy focus on actually winning, a senior party official tells Martin. A McInnes name-check at the 1922 committee also yielded some approving foot-stamps among Tory MPs last night.
Winning here: Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch also attempted to rally exhausted Tory MPs at the end-of-term gathering with the promise of a “fun, exciting conference,” reports Playbook’s Bethany Dawson, who was camping outside. One shadow minister told her they are “fed up” with “stage-managed speeches for the media” and are keen to see members get involved in policy again. Something to look forward to — just don’t mention their leadership picks.
Not winning here: CCHQ finances still appear to be tight. A job ad for a “press volunteer” with a salary of £0 has been doing the rounds among Tories. A rather timely call for evidence on unpaid internships is being unveiled by the business department today, according to the Commons order paper.
ED MILI-PLANS: Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is mulling a string of policy reforms as Labour bids to hit its twin election pledges of cutting energy bills and achieving green goals. Proposals under consideration include cutting costs for heat pump owners, increasing subsidies for buying new green tech and putting more cash into underground “heat zones,” my colleague Abby Wallace reveals. It is all part of the government’s big money Warm Homes Plan, coming in the fall.
STRIKING HEADLINE: Wes Streeting will meet BMA leaders this afternoon in an attempt to stave off strikes by resident doctors, due to start next Friday. The Times front page highlights warnings from coroners who linked deaths resulting from poor care to previous industrial action. The BMA says strikes need not happen if the government comes forward with a plan to “restore doctors’ pay.”
BIG SOCIETY LATEST: Before hosting Germany’s Merz, Starmer will launch his “civil society covenant” — a promise to work with charities and community groups — at the government’s first Civil Society Summit. The Home Office has said a pilot scheme, including an initiative to get officers to crack down on predatory behavior at night, will be extended to 15 new areas by March next year.
POWER ON: Technology Secretary Peter Kyle is in Bristol today, where he’ll be booting up (symbolically, at least) the country’s most powerful supercomputer.
MORE CHALLENGES: Security Minister Dan Jarvis is set to highlight the “vast and relentless challenge” posed by fraud, corruption and money laundering in a speech at the National Economic Crime Centre.
PRESSURE BUILDING: The government is facing calls to release the delayed “Learning from Lives and Deaths” report, which details the deaths of people with learning disabilities and autism in England, ITV reports. Lib Dem peer Paul Scriven has submitted two urgent questions to the government seeking an explanation for the delay. He spoke to ITV about the “preventable” and “unforgivable” death of his nephew Myles, who had a learning disability and was autistic.
TICK TOCK: Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, speaking at the IFG, had a warning for Keir Starmer, saying that although the prime minister has four years of his term left and a large majority, he shouldn’t forget that “the window you have to really do [big] changes is your first year or two in a parliament.”
REF! Seven Lib Dem MPs, including party Leader Ed Davey, have written to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy requesting she intervene in UEFA’s “disgraceful” decision to demote Crystal Palace from the Europa League over breaches of its multi-club ownership rules. BBC Sport has the story.
AT THE COVID-19 INQUIRY: Former Care Minister Helen Whately, now the shadow work and pensions secretary, is up from 10 a.m. Stream here.
SW1 EVENTS: Channel 4 hosts a screening of “Groomed: A National Scandal” with Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika at 4 p.m. … Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Alex Burghart and former Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke have an “in conversation” event hosted by Onward, followed by a Q&A with the Lobby, at 9.30 a.m. (details here).
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with business questions to the Leader of the House Lucy Powell … a select committee statement on the Science, Innovation and Technology Committee’s report on “Social Media, Misinformation and Harmful Algorithms” … the government’s response to the the Joint Committee on Human Rights’ report on “Accountability for Daesh Crimes” … a general debate on the global plastics treaty (led by Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael) … a debate on aging community and end of life care (Labour MP Leigh Ingham). Conservative MP Danny Kruger has the adjournment debate on the future of the Church of England.
On committee corridor: The Lords’ Built Environment Committee quizzes Housing and Planning Minister Matthew Pennycook on the practical delivery of new towns (10 a.m.) … and the Social Mobility Policy Committee grills Employment Minister Alison McGovern and Skills Minister Jacqui Smith on social mobility policy (10.05 a.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with the introduction of the Bishop of Chester Mark Tanner … questions on amendments to the European Convention of Human Rights, inter-availability of rail tickets and tackling unsustainable debt in cooperation with partners in the Global South … a report by the Commission on Antisemitism by John Mann and Penny Mordaunt published on July 15 … and Day 1 of committee stage of the Planning and Infrastructure Bill.
BEYOND THE M25
YOU’VE GOT MAIL: Donald Trump said Wednesday that he intends to send a single letter telling more than 150 countries what tariff rate they will face. “It’s all going to be the same for everyone, for that group. They’re not big countries, and they don’t do that much business,” Trump told reporters. POLITICO has the details.
NOT MATES: Trump attacked members of his MAGA base on Wednesday for pushing for the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, saying they were playing into the hands of his political opponents and that he no longer wants their support. “My PAST supporters have bought into this ‘bullsh*t,’ hook, line, and sinker,” Trump posted on his Truth Social account. Why doesn’t he ever say what he really thinks? POLITICO has more.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel launched massive airstrikes on Damascus, destroying part of Syria’s defense ministry, in an attempt to persuade interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government forces to withdraw from the south of the country. Israel said it was acting to protect the Druze minority and push Islamic militants away from its border, after days of clashes between armed factions that have threatened to undermine Syria’s postwar transition. Reuters covered it here.
The U.S. said the fighting would stop soon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on X that all parties involved in the clashes had agreed to “bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end tonight.” The U.N. Security Council will meet today to address the conflict.
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MEDIA ROUND
Minister for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls Jess Phillips broadcast round: Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.).
Shadow Crime Minister Matt Vickers broadcast round: Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.05 a.m.).
Also on Today: Suspended Labour MP Rachael Maskell (7.09 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Labour MP Graham Stringer (7.05 a.m.) … Shadow Justice Minister Kieran Mullan (7.40 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Keir Starmer’s former Political Director Luke Sullivan (7.05 a.m.) … Reform MP Sarah Pochin (8.35 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour peer Shami Chakrabarti … Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Alex Burghart … Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith … the Spectator’s Tim Shipman.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Starmer and Merz find their happy place: War
Daily Express: ‘They failed to provide what might have helped.’
Daily Mail: Thanks for saving us, now we’ll sue you.
Daily Mirror: Sue chef.
Daily Star: Leaky bum time.
Financial Times: Diageo chief stands down as falling alcohol sales take toll.
Metro: New Maxwell appeal bid as Trump flips.
The Daily Telegraph: Cabinet bid to halt Afghan airlift.
The Guardian: Four MPs lose Labour whip as PM attempts to reassert grip on party.
The Independent: The ultimate betrayal: now even the special forces we campaigned for are named in leak.
The i Paper: Reeves blamed for UK inflation hike, as NI rise hits food prices.
The Sun: Afghans’ £1bn blunder compo.
The Times: Afghan leak intelligence was hidden from MPs.
TODAY’S NEWS MAGS
POLITICO Europe: Le Pen or Bardella?
The New Statesman: A question of intent.
The Spectator: Broke Britain.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Cloudy, but should get sunnier after lunch. High 26C, low 18C.
SPOTTED … at POLITICO’s summer bash at Dartmouth House, sponsored by the Scottish Whisky Association: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson … Attorney General Richard Hermer … Local Transport Minister Simon Lightwood … Solicitor General Lucy Rigby … EU Relations Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds … former Prime Minister Liz Truss and her spokesperson Jonathan Isaby … Shadow Paymaster General Richard Holden … Labour MPs Mark Sewards, James Asser, Callum Anderson, Josh Fenton-Glynn, Richard Baker, Lee Barron, Uma Kumaran, Mike Tapp, Florence Eshalomi, Sarah Coombes, Steve Race, Jeevun Sandher, Chris Curtis, Michael Wheeler, Marsha De Cordova, Luke Murphy, Chris Murray, Chi Onwurah, Richard Quigley, Rosie Wrighting, Natasha Irons, Kate Dearden, Jim Dickson, Helena Dollimore and Alan Gemmell … Conservative MP Lewis Cocking, Gavin Williamson, John Cooper, David Davis and Gagan Mohindra … Lib Dem MP Victoria Collins, Rachel Gilmour, Luke Taylor, Edward Morello, Will Forster and Paul Kohler … Labour peer Maurice Glasman … Conservative peer Robert Hayward … the leader of the House’s press secretary Katie Armour … SpAds Ryan Denston, Maria Herron, Alaina Macdonald, John Stevens and Chris McQuiggin …
And breathe: Nigel Farage’s chief of staff Victoria Hughes … Labour’s Head of Strategy Adam Ludlow … No. 10’s James Lyons and Sophie Nazemi … former No. 10 staffers Tom Webb and Tom Lillywhite … LOTO official spokesperson Dylan Sharpe … former Labour COO John Lehal … the Lib Dems’ Gareth Lewis, Tim Wild and Christine Longworth … Radio 4 Controller Mohit Bakaya … the News Agents presenter Lewis Goodall … the Polish Embassy’s Jerzy Boczkowski … Irish Embassy’s Jamal Alkayed … CCHQ’s Richard N. Jackson and Sheridan Westlake … LGBT Labour Co-Chair Joe Dharampal-Hornby … Labour NEC member Abdi Duale … Co-Op Party General Secretary Joe Fortune … Purpose Union CEO Lewis Iwu … CBI CEO Rain Newton-Smith … TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak … iNHouse founder Katie Perrior … Scottish Whisky Association’s Fraser Grieve and Mark Kent … former Politics Live presenter Jo Coburn … Sky’s Katy Dillon … Political Editors Andy Bell, David Hughes, Pippa Crerar, Jack Elsom, Hugo Gye, Tim Shipman and Adam Payne … hacks Serena Barker-Singh, Aubrey Allegretti, Keith Bays, Martina Bet, Matt Chorley, Sam Coates, Ollie Cole, Ashley Cowburn, Harriet Line, Ethan Croft, Zoë Crowther, Louis Degenhardt, Antonello Guerrera, Mikey Smith, Robbie Hawkins, Marie Le Conte, Tom Scotson, Geri Scott, Anne Alexander and Henry Zeffman.
Also spotted … at Labour Together’s summer bash at 8 Northumberland Avenue, sipping on Champagne, wine and non-alcoholic Tom Collins: Prime Minister Keir Starmer … Labour frontbenchers Wes Streeting, Bridget Phillipson, Pat McFadden, Ellie Reeves, Lisa Nandy, Ed Miliband, John Healey, Yvette Cooper and Darren Jones … Labour MPs Anneliese Dodds, Josh Simons, Tom Hayes, Yuan Yang, Alistair Strathern, Kate Dearden and Liam Byrne … No. 10 chief of staff Morgan McSweeney … PLP Secretary Matt Faulding … Prime Minister’s press secretary Sophie Nazemi … No. 10 SpAds Adam McNicholas and Yasmeen Sebbana … No. 10 Policy Unit Director Stuart Ingham … No. 10 Director of Strategy Paul Ovenden … DHSC SpAd Kirsty O’Brien … Cabinet Office SpAd John Stevens … think tankers Helen Miller, Hannah White, Harry Quilter-Pinner, Tim Leunig, Sam Freedman and Jeegar Kakkad … former Labour comms director Tom Baldwin … West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin … Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea … Labour Together’s Cam Vargas, outgoing boss Jonathan Ashworth, Matthew Upton, Ben Szreter, Christabel Cooper and James Howat.
STUDIOUS: Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury Gareth Davies has been made a senior fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, studying how structural financial capabilities, institutions and networks shape state power in the 21st century.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Dan Bloom.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel … non-affiliated peer and former First Minister of Northern Ireland Arlene Foster … Environment Minister Emma Hardy … South Shropshire MP Stuart Anderson … Caerphilly MP Chris Evans … Tory peer John Patten … Tory peer Joyce Anelay … Tory peer Andrew Robathan … non-affiliated peer Pola Uddin … Queen Camilla.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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