(Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a three-week high on Friday as hot weather forces power generators to burn lots of the fuel to keep air conditioners humming and a slow but steady rise in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
That price increase came despite ample amounts of gas in storage and record output. That record output should allow energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. Stockpiles were currently around 6% above the five-year normal.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.3 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.565 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 27.
For the week, the front-month was up about 8% after dropping around 14% over the prior four weeks.
Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least August 2, with the hottest days so far this summer expected next week.
Temperatures across the country will average around 81 degrees Fahrenheit (27.2 degrees Celsius) on July 25, on track to top this summer’s current hottest daily average of 80 F on June 24 but still below the daily average record high of 83 F on July 20, 2022, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 2018.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 rose to 107.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.
On a daily basis, output hit a record high of 107.92 bcfd on July 14, topping the prior all-time daily high of 107.91 bcfd on April 18.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would slide from 110.1 bcfd this week to 107.4 bcfd next week before rising to 110.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.8 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan said its 0.4-bcfd Elba Island LNG export plant in Georgia should return to service by the weekend after a couple of days of maintenance.
The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
Week ended Jul 18 Forecast
Week ended Jul 11 Actual
Year ago Jul 18
Five-year average
Jul 18
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+39
+46
+20
+30
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,091
3,052
3,228
2,904
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.4%
+6.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub
3.56
3.54
2.21
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1)
11.72
11.93
10.32
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1)
12.18
12.41
12.32
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
3
4
3
3
3
U.S. GFS CDDs
238
236
218
213
203
U.S. GFS TDDs
241
240
221
216
206
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
106.5
107.5
107.4
103.3
97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.2
8.5
8.0
N/A
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
114.7
116.0
115.3
N/A
105.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
2.0
2.1
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.0
7.0
6.8
N/A
6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
15.2
15.4
15.4
11.1
10.0
U.S. Commercial
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
U.S. Power Plant
45.2
47.8
45.2
49.0
48.1
U.S. Industrial
22.2
22.2
22.3
21.8
21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
82.9
85.6
83.1
86.4
86.9
Total U.S. Demand
107.1
110.1
107.4
N/A
99.2
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
77
77
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
79
79
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
80
80
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
Week ended Jul 18
Week ended Jul 11
2024
2023
2022
Wind
7
7
11
10
11
Solar
7
7
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
44
44
42
41
38
Coal
19
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
16
17
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL)
3.52
3.42
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL)
3.05
3.13
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL)
3.90
3.82
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL)
2.74
2.91
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL)
3.26
3.29
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL)
4.25
9.75
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL)
3.79
3.93
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL)
1.88
1.91
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL)
0.17
0.40
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England (E-NEPLMHP-IDX)
62.93
165.64
PJM West (E-PJWHDAP-IDX)
64.93
112.27
Mid C (W-MIDCP-IDX)
36.03
54.77
Palo Verde (W-PVP-IDX)
44.42
53.75
SP-15 (W-SP15-IDX)
29.48
39.31
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