Live: Tasmanian election results show Liberals with most seats as Labor slides

Last year, towards the end of the ABC’s live blog coverage, I wrote the following:

“Well, that was weird. Did we get a result? It seems we got a few different ones, if you watched the leaders’ speeches.”

This election feels a bit the same. No clear result. Many questions unanswered.

It seems strange that Dean Winter’s Labor, despite having as chief election analyst Casey Briggs called, their worst result EVER in Tasmania, could be in a position to negotiate with the crossbenchers who may prefer to throw their lot in with Labor, rather than Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals.

What kind of authority could Labor expect to have in that scenario?

But the Liberals, despite their primary vote increasing tonight, will need to get mostly progressive crossbenchers on-side, some of whom have explicitly rejected large parts of the Liberals’ agenda – and that is not guaranteed at all.

So, if anyone was expecting a clear picture tonight, SORRY.

Tasmanian politics – undefeated in keeping Australia and the world bamboozled.

Sorry, we did not get to all your comments, many of them asking the same thing as we were: ‘What just happened?’

 We will be following closely the negotiations sure to come over the coming hours, days and weeks and bringing the outcome to you as soon as possible.

Good night!

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Dean Winter has continued by saying “tonight, the Tasmanian people have spoken”.

“They have delivered another hung parliament and, with it, a resounding message they want their politicians to work together more collaboratively.

“They aren’t happy with politics as usual and they want to see things done differently. And the Premier’s speech earlier tonight showed some of the same approach that he took on election night some 16 months ago, and we know that hasn’t worked.

“That isn’t what Tasmanians have just voted for. Tasmanians have voted for a parliament that represents a diverse range of views, one that appears highly likely to be progressive in majority.

“And it is incumbent on all of us to respect the will of the people to make the parliament work in the best interests of the people of Tasmania. Whoever forms government will have to form a new approach to politics.

“I have listened to Tasmanians’ verdict tonight and I understand that they are deeply dissatisfied with the way our parliament has worked and they want a change of approach.

“The Liberals will have the most seats, but is uncertain how they will achieve a majority. They have enough respect for Tasmanians to be upfront and honest about that. I would be going back on what I have committed to. Labor does stand for safe, secure, well-paid jobs, and I want to be clear that I won’t be trading away any of Labor’s policies or our values. If the Liberals are unable to form a goal of the moment, another election is not an option.

“However the coming days play out, Tasmanians can be assured the message they have sent will play my part in making this parliament work in the best interests of our state. It seems likely that the three major parties in the state will end up with more or less the same number of seats as they did in the last parliament. Another election is not an option, which means that we need to figure this out.

“This will take leadership, it will take maturity, and it will take a willingness to work and seek common ground. Whoever forms government after the election, I commit to that being my approach going forward.

“Tonight’s result didn’t go as well as I wanted to, but I commit to continuing to work with you, our Labor friends, to fight for a Labor government that delivers a Labor agenda for our state. Thank you.”

Dean Winter has begun by referencing Constable Keith Smith who was shot dead last month.

“Early in this election campaign, our community felt the grief when we lost Constable Keith Smith. In Ulverstone you could feel the community mourning. It felt like the bottom had fallen out of our state. It felt like we were all part of that loss. I have had tough days on this job, and my family like most families, though, knows that the matter what happens in my workplace, I will always come home safe. For Keith’s family, that didn’t happen.”

Mr Winter says he wants to “acknowledge Jeremy Rockliff and his family tonight”.

“I have fundamental and real concerns with the direction state is moving in, but I do know that Jeremy cares deeply and he has been in parliament now for longer than anyone, and his result in Braddon tonight reflects service. I would like to thank my caucus in my Labor movement. In particular the two behind me, Anita (Dow) and Josh (Willie), who have stood with me every step of the way, and our entire Labor caucus.

“I would like to thank them for their loyalty and friendship over the past year or so, and through this election campaign.”

Jeremy Rockliff has already stated his intention to meet the governor and be recommissioned.

ABC chief election analyst Casey Briggs explains what Labor needs to do if it doesn’t want the Liberals to return to power – and it involves speaking to the newly-elected crossbenchers.

“If the Opposition does not want that, they’re going to have to come forward and present an alternative to the governor before that happens, which means they will have to get to start hitting the phones if they want to avoid the premier being recommissioned.”

“The governor is just not going to appoint an opposition as premier without the sort of formal advice from enough people — 18 members of parliament saying they would support them.”

Labor’s Sarah Lovell and former Greens leader Cassy O’Connor don’t agree that Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals have a mandate to form government.

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The ABC understands Dean Winter, the leader of Tasmanian Labor, will speak soon.

Labor is currently sitting on 8 seats. It is likely to pick up a ninth seat in Braddon and it could get a second seat in Franklin, according to chief election analyst Casey Briggs.

“I can’t see Labor getting beyond 10. I think 10 is the maximum for Labor at this point,” he said.

“The Liberals have 14 and that could continue to grow by another 1 or 2 potentially.”

Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff continues by saying “things are looking good for the Greens”.

“We will be watching votes and preferences flow over the next few weeks, but at this point I am so happy to say we have held our five seats and I am so proud be returning to parliament with Cecily Rosol, Tabatha Badger, Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet.

“I want to give a huge shout to all the people, all of our volunteers who have worked so hard in Braddon and are watching this tonight. The Greens are more than a four decades old grassroots movement that doesn’t take money from big corporations.

“We run a truly grassroots campaign across the other the selection and I want to thank everyone involved, our committed energetic volunteers who helped us have thousands of conversations with people on the doors, who showed up at 6am and put on a green beanie on dark freezing mornings, giving up their weekends.”

Dr Woodruff starts with an acknowledgement of country, then begins.

“Democracy is always something to celebrate but, even so, we acknowledge this election wasn’t what anyone wanted.

“Both major party leaders had options to avoid it, but here we are.

“I want to give a shout out to all the people who had the courage to stand for election.”

I want to acknowledge Jeremy (Rockliff) and Dean (Winter) work on this campaign. Elections are gruelling for everyone, especially for leaders and their family.

“This campaign has been like no other I have ever been part of. A bitterly cold campaign held over the school holidays immediately on the tail of recent elections wouldn’t have been anyone’s wish. But the Greens did what we could to bring energy and fun to our campaign. And despite the challenges, despite the challenges of a snap election, this has been one of the biggest campaigns that the Tasmanian Greens has ever held.

“While it might all look like simple politics on the outside, elections are truly made up of individual people driven by values and made up by all the people here and across the island. They are committed to change, people willing to give up their time to fight for it.

“We heard it on the doors every day. Tasmanians are crying out for change.

“They look at our state and see serious issues. People can’t afford a home of the basics. They struggle to get by, day by day, forced to make impossible choices about which bill to pay or if they can afford to run the heater. And if you’re a waiting list in Tasmania, you are waiting longer than anyone else in the country.

“The budget is in complete disrepair. Both the Liberals want to spend more than $1 billion on building the state a third stadium.”

In his speech, Jeremy Rockliff has said he will go to the governor and ask to be recommissioned.

He is entitled to do that, explains Casey Briggs.

“If the governor gets advice from other parties saying the Premier will not have the confidence of the house, the governor does not have to accept his advice, but also the parliament does not have to accept the recommissioning. Jeremy Rockliff could be reappointed as premier by the governor.

“It has happened before.  He could face the floor and immediately face a no-confidence motion and if that passes it would go back to the governor to recommissioned someone else. That is the process. It is a process we have seen take place before in Tasmania.

“He is allowed to ask to be recommissioned.”

“I want to take this opportunity to thank the people of Tasmania for the great privilege that you have provided me in being a member of parliament, a minister in a government, and Premier of Tasmania for the last three years,” Jeremy Rockliff, flanked by his family and his mother, has told the tally room in Hobart.

“I also want to acknowledge and thank every single one of the 160 candidates that stood at this election for your courage and your conviction. All of whom have stood to try in their own way to make a positive difference to this wonderful state.

“To see your name on the ballot paper for the very first time, in many cases, is a moment I know you will never forget as you become part of Tasmania’s very rich democracy.”

(ABC News: Luke Bowden)Acknowledgement of ‘sacrifice’

Mr Rockliff said tomorrow will be 23rd anniversary of his first election in 2002.

“I thank you for the great privilege that you have given me to serve your community, being a member of parliament and to stand for election and to serve — this is a tough gig.

“It is tough on families, and I want to acknowledge Dean Winter as Leader of the Opposition, his wife, Alison, and family.”

Walking out to a jubilant crowd chanting “Rocky”, Premier Jeremy Rockliff said he was “very humbled” by the result.

Blaming Labor Leader Dean Winter again for the very early election, Mr Rockliff said Tasmania had voted to reendorse his government.

“It is our team, who will achieve the most seats in this election, significantly increased vote,” said Mr Rockliff.

“I intend to visit the Governor and ask her to recommission my government so we can get on with the job for Tasmania.”

“Tasmanians have spoken. As they always have and will continue to do so. Now is the time for those who have had and will have the great honour of being elected to parliament to work together, with goodwill, across the chamber, in the best interests of all Tasmanians.

“Each and every one of us who have been elected cannot expect to get 100 per cent of everything we want. We must work together, respect the will of the people, be mature, be pragmatic, but most of all, work in the best interests of all Tasmanians.”

Tasmanian Liberals leader Jeremy Rockliff is about to address his party faithful.

 ABC chief election analyst says Casey Briggs that the Liberal vote is up three points.

“The Labor vote is down. The Greens are up a modest half a percentage point. The Nationals have only got 1.5 per cent in the selection statewide — not a very good result for them, but also not a good result for Labor on the primary vote.”

Casey says these projected numbers are “pretty similar to the last election at this point”.

“Similar to the election that we saw just 16 months ago …  so I guess there might be some people asking the question tonight of ‘what exactly was the point’. “

Tasmanian Liberals leader Jeremy Rockliff is soon to make a speech, we understand.

We will bring that to you live.

Liberal candidate for Braddon Felix Ellis says while they are hoping for a majority there are “potentially sensible independents” they could work with.

Tasmania’s crossbench has traditionally been on the more progressive side making it harder for the Liberals to find common ground with the very politicians they need to rely on for confidence and supply.

The Liberals have spent the last days of this election warning about the dangers of “radical independents”.

“There are single issue radical independents who are seeking people’s votes tonight who have a very sketchy track record,” Mr Ellis told the panel.

“People who are opposed to jobs and development across large swathes of our state and our economy. People that want to lock out Tasmanians from the places that they love doing, the things that they love.

“If we do have to work with others, just as we have in this parliament, we’re hopeful that it will be people who have Tasmania’s best interests as heart.”

A little bit awks, fellas!

Can’t wait for these two to be back at it in parliament.

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