Kevin Warsh is the favorite to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve if President Donald Trump appoints a successor to Jerome Powell before the end of 2025, according to a leading bookmaker.
Newsweek contacted the Federal Reserve for comment on Saturday via online inquiry form outside regular office hours.
The Context
Over the past few months, Trump has been sharply critical of Powell, whom he appointed during his first term, over the chair’s refusal to slash interest rates. In June, the president said Powell was costing the United States “a fortune” and demanded that rates be reduced by a “full point.”
On Wednesday, Trump was asked whether he planned to fire Powell following media reports that he had been sounding out Republican politicians about the possibility. The president replied, “I don’t rule out anything, but it’s highly unlikely [that I’ll fire him]—unless he has to leave for fraud.” Powell’s term is due to end in early 2026.
What To Know
On Friday, Star Sports offered odds of 2/1 (33.3 percent) on Warsh, who served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, being appointed by Trump as the new Fed chair by the end of 2025, assuming a new chair is appointed.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett followed with 9/4 (30.8 percent); then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with 3/1 (25 percent); and Chris Waller, who sits on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, with 8/1 (11.1 percent).
Star Sports said that if Trump did not appoint a new Federal Reserve chair by December 31, the market would “resolve to void.”
Trump has spent months calling for Powell to lower interest rates, a move supporters believe would kick-start the economy with cheaper borrowing but that critics say would fuel inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on July 9, 2024.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on July 9, 2024.
Bonnie Cash/GETTY
The Federal Reserve rate is 4.5 percent, down from 5.5 percent a year ago.
On his Truth Social website in June, Trump shared a handwritten note he had sent Powell, in which he said: “You have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower that rate by a lot! Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost!”
Speaking in February, Trump described Powell as a “numbskull” and said he was “making it difficult for people, especially the young, to buy a house.”
He added that Powell was “truly one of my worst appointments.” Referring to former President Joe Biden, he added, “Sleepy Joe saw how bad he was and reappointed him anyway.”
What People Are Saying
Star Sports political betting analyst William Kedjanyi told Newsweek: “Donald Trump has been harassing Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, for months and months over interest rates. Trump wants Powell pushed out, despite the fact that Trump appointed him, and even if he does manage to survive, Powell’s term ends in 10 months.
“Warsh is our 2/1 front-runner—a Wall Street favorite who knows the system well from his years serving under George W. Bush and Barack Obama, who has also received the backing of Fox News journalist Maria Bartiromo, whom Trump respects.
“It’s pretty clear that whoever Trump appoints, they are going to be on board with lower interest rates. With that in mind, Hassett is our 9/4 second favorite, with Hassett receiving a number of positive mentions in the media recently. Hassett is very close to Trump and has worked with the president during both of his terms—the only worry may be if Wall Street views that as a threat to central bank independence.”
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen whether Trump will fire Powell this year or wait until his term ends in 2026. Either way, Powell’s replacement could have a significant effect on financial markets.