Bettors are already placing significant wagers on the 2028 U.S. presidential election, with J.D. Vance emerging as the top contender for the Republican nomination and Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field. Despite the election being over three years away, prediction markets are buzzing with activity, reflecting the early preferences and uncertainties of political speculators.
On the Republican side, J.D. Vance is currently favored with a 27% chance of securing the nomination, according to Polymarket. This puts him ahead of other potential candidates, including Donald Trump, who is given a slim 4% chance of another White House run. Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis follow with 7% and 6% chances, respectively, while Donald Trump Jr. and Glenn Youngkin are tied at 4%. The wide spread in these odds suggests a strong preference for Vance among bettors, with other candidates appearing as long shots.
On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom is the top contender with an 18% chance of winning the nomination, according to Kalshi’s prediction market. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is close behind with a 14% chance, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 10%. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff are also in the running with 7% and 6% chances, respectively. Vice President Kamala Harris trails the pack with a 4% chance, indicating a lack of upward momentum in her potential candidacy.
The early betting trends reveal the shifting expectations and biases of political speculators. With billions likely to flow through these platforms in the years ahead, today’s odds may end up being little more than historical curiosities, snapshots of a moment when everything still felt wide open. As the election approaches, these probabilities could experience significant changes, reflecting the dynamic nature of political campaigns and the unpredictable preferences of voters.
