[Translated from Daily Shincho]Parliamentary debate has reached a deadlock, and the issue of imperial succession remains up in the air. What does the future hold for Princess Aiko and Prince Hisahito?

Regarding the form of imperial succession, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nukaga Fukushiro had expressed an intention to put together a draft agreement as a legislative body during the Diet session that closed last month, but in the end this was shelved. After a series of informal discussions with each political party, a "common understanding was reached" on the idea of female members of the imperial family remaining in the imperial family after marriage, but a "common understanding was not reached" on the idea of adopting male descendants of former imperial families. Speaker Nukaga stated that "coordination will be made with each political party in preparation for the extraordinary Diet session in the fall," but the future of the next generation of imperial family members, including Prince Hisahito and Princess Aiko, remains unclear.

"Among the younger generations of Imperial Family, there is Princess Kako, the second daughter of the Akishino family, and Princess Tsuguko, the eldest daughter of the Takamado family, but the ones who are closely related to the Imperial succession are Prince Hisahito, the eldest son of the Crown Prince's family and the only male Imperial Family member, and Princess Aiko, the eldest daughter of the Imperial Family," says a former career bureaucrat who has experience as a senior member of the Imperial Household Agency.

Prince Hisahito has just begun to seriously approach biology at the University of Tsukuba, where he will study, ahead of his coming-of-age ceremony in September. Among the Imperial Family's predecessors who have pursued the path of biological research are Emperor Showa, who studied hydrozoa, a type of jellyfish; the Emperor Emeritus, who devoted himself to classifying gobies; and Prince Hitachi, who has devoted himself to studying animal cells, especially tumors. Before the war, the Imperial House Law, which was positioned as a legal code equivalent to the Constitution, stipulated that "the Imperial Throne shall be succeeded by a male of the male lineage belonging to the Imperial line," so Prince Hisahito was the long-awaited birth of a male member of the Imperial Family.

Naturally, the nation was excited about the birth of a boy, the first in 41 years. On the other hand, even though there are always people around the royal family who are in charge of taking care of them and providing security, it is natural that unforeseen events such as illness or accidents can occur to members of the imperial family. For example, in April 1895 (Meiji 28), after the end of the First Sino-Japanese War, Prince Kitashirakawa Yoshihisa had already shown symptoms of malaria in China, but he headed to Taiwan, which was showing signs of independence, and in October he developed a fever. His condition rapidly worsened and he passed away. His son, Prince Kitashirakawa Narihisa, studied in France in 1921 (Taisho 10). He learned to drive while there, and two years later, in 1923, he was killed when he crashed into a large tree while driving near the village of Perrier-la-Campagne, about 140 kilometers west of Paris, while speeding. Prince Akishino, who is not yet 60 years old and is first in line to the throne, and Prince Hisahito, who is second, are by no means guaranteed to live long lives. It goes without saying that it is difficult to prevent unforeseen accidents or illnesses 100%, although of course this should not happen.

A person related to an organization related to the former aristocracy points out that "After the war, many former Imperial families became civilians and served as a kind of 'guard' for the Imperial family, that is, a shield. This is because Emperor Meiji, who felt that the Imperial family was in danger of being continuant due to the successive premature deaths of his children, actively approved the creation of new Imperial families. As this fact shows, a safety net is essential to maintain the Imperial family. This is why it is necessary to revive the former Imperial families while allowing adoption."

However, there have been eight female emperors in their teens in the past, and there were also members of the Imperial family such as Empress Jingu and Princess Iitoyo who are strongly believed to be female emperors. Some are of the opinion that allowing female members of the Imperial family to remain in the Imperial family after marriage and to be able to ascend to the throne in the event of an emergency should also be an option for the safety net. In fact, a May opinion poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun showed that 70% of people were in favor of a female emperor. On the other hand, a specific LDP proposal to strongly push for the acceptance of adoption into the former Imperial families was specifically stated in May. According to the proposal, adoption is open to boys aged 15 and over. The adoption regulations themselves will be established by law as a permanent system, and while adopted male lineage children will not be eligible to inherit the throne, boys born afterwards will be eligible. A former Imperial Household Agency official said, "There have been cases in the past where adult men from former Imperial families have been arrested for illegal drug use, and with social media now having a great influence, we are now in an era where scandals involving idols and other celebrities are "exposed," regardless of whether they are recent or ancient, whether they are criminal cases, or whether the statute of limitations has expired. It is a rational idea to not give the right to inherit the throne to an adopted child who suddenly enters the Imperial family. The same can be said for the husbands of female members who remain in the Imperial family, who are also not granted the right to inherit the throne in the LDP proposal." He went on to say the following. "When forming or reshuffling a cabinet, the new minister is subjected to a background check, slang for which is a 'physical examination,' but even so, it is not rare for inappropriate 'politics and money' or extramarital affairs to come to light after the minister takes office. In that sense, I think the LDP's proposal is spot on."

However, another former Imperial Household Agency official speculates, "The reason why the marriage of Akishino's eldest daughter, Komuro Mako, was delayed was the financial scandal involving Komuro Kei's mother, Kayo. This is a prime example of how a parent's behavior can affect a child's future. When it comes to a former Imperial family, especially a male descendant, the options are extremely limited. This may not be the right way to put it, but I think we have to say that there is a high risk of being "targeted" on social media."

Twelve years after Princess Kako's birth, Prince Hisahito was born on September 7, 2006, at Aiiku Hospital in Minato Ward, Tokyo. He weighed 2,558 grams and was 48.8 centimeters tall. He was the first member of the imperial family to be born by Caesarean section. The operation began at 8:23 a.m. and ended at 9:07 a.m. The "Sword Ceremony" took place in the afternoon of the same day. On July 18, just before the birth, Ichiro Kanazawa, then chief medical officer of the Imperial Household Agency, held a press conference and announced that Kiko's placenta had shifted and she was in a state of "placenta previa," which could lead to heavy bleeding. He had hinted at the possibility of a Caesarean section.

In fact, due to the effects of placenta previa, Prince Hisahito's development in the womb was poor, and there was a possibility that he would be a low-birth-weight baby with a birth weight of less than 2,500 grams. Since he was once called a premature baby, Kanazawa explained this off the record and repeatedly emphasized that "even if he is below 2,500 grams, he should never be called a premature baby," as this could give people a negative impression of him being "premature." At the time, the risk of life-threatening placenta previa, especially for the mother, had dropped to about 0.2 percent, but it had risen to 10 percent in the past. Regarding the decision to have a Caesarean section, Empress Emerita Michiko spoke in a document released on her birthday in October of that year: "When I had my first child over 40 years ago, placenta previa was a very feared condition. I was still in my mid-20s at the time, and I was extremely worried, because I felt that childbirth couldn't have changed that much from ancient times to now." At the time of his birth, both mother and child were already in danger.

Under the current Imperial system, if someone were to fall ill or get into a traffic accident, there is still no safety net in place, so no one would be able to become emperor, and the imperial line would be completely cut off. Of the eight female emperors, the third, Empress Jito, is said to have ascended to the throne in a hurry because Prince Kusakabe, who was the most likely candidate to become the next emperor, died of illness. Finally, a source at the Imperial Household Agency said the following. "Postponing a decision will only result in Prince Hisahito's future and Princess Aiko's future being thrown into disarray. The deadline for deciding on the concrete form of the safety net for the imperial line has already come."