Area business leaders are optimistic about the economy | Articles

In a regional survey of 298 Northern Virginia business leaders — about one of three based in Fairfax County — said they have “uncertainty” about the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff and government spending policies, predicting it may result in “stunting growth” in Northern Virginia, but said they have “confidence” in the local economy.

The Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce (NVC) and Pinkston, a communications consulting firm based in Falls Church, released a report with their findings, which examines the viewpoints of executives on the economy, hiring projections, market outlook, and the impact of President Donald Trump’s policies, including cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.

With companies such as Capital One, Northrop Grumman, and Booz Allen Hamilton, based in Fairfax County, the county serves as a key engine for the Northern Virginia and state economies.

“Our Q3 survey makes one thing clear: the federal government’s impact on our regional economy is real and significant,” said Julie Coons, NVC President and CEO. “That’s why NVC is forging a path forward with our NOVA Roadmap initiative — working closely with regional partners to ensure the health and longevity of our economy.”

Business leaders are facing the policies of the Trump administration, but many are positive about the future. “Despite concerns at the federal level, business leaders are feeling more optimistic about their companies’ ability to navigate uncertainties, highlighting the resilience of our region,” said Coons.

“Approximately 40% of business leaders now believe the economy will grow over the next six months, and 26% expect it to remain stable. This reflects a notable shift in sentiment, with only 34% anticipating a decline, down from 59% in April’s survey,” NVC and Pinkston reported in a statement.

According to the Q3 survey, 68% of business leaders are “very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance over the next six months.” However, in the Q2 survey, taken in April 2025, 54% of business leaders said they were “very or somewhat optimistic about their company’s performance in the next six months.”

Despite a vast majority of business leaders expressing concern about DOGE’s impact on the greater Washington, D.C., economy, the report said that 56% of business leaders say DOGE “has had no impact on their company’s business decisions in the last six months.”

With tariffs looming over the nation and the world, the impact of tariffs is a mixed bag. The survey reported that 40% of business leaders believe that Trump’s tariff policy and negotiation process “will cause their company to decline,” while 48% “expect no impact,” and 11% expect their company “will grow.”

“As Elon Musk has departed the Trump administration and DOGE actions appear to be subsiding, Northern Virginia business leaders’ optimism has slightly improved; however, major concerns remain,” said D.J. Jordan, senior vice president at Pinkston. 

“This region’s business leaders are incredibly smart and resilient, and they can adapt and make effective changes to their business if they have more certainty. Tariff policy and DOGE have created uncertainty about the future playing field, and it appears that some companies are waiting on the sidelines before growing operations and increasing capital,” said Jordan.

According to the report, about one of three companies, or 29%, are based in Fairfax County. Another 28%, or one of three, are headquartered in nearby Loudoun County. The final one of three — or 16% in Arlington County, 10% in Alexandria, and 4% in Prince William County — are based in the Northern Virginia region.

The 298 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners are members of local business industry groups, including the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

In Fairfax County, they include the Central Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, the Dulles Regional Chamber of Commerce, based in Herndon, the Falls Church Chamber of Commerce, and the Greater Reston Chamber of Commerce.

Other Northern Virginia industry groups include the Alexandria Chamber of Commerce, the Arlington Chamber of Commerce, the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce, the Prince William County Chamber of Commerce, and the Virginia Black Chamber of Commerce in Fredericksburg. 

All in all, despite widespread and persistent concerns about a diminished economy due to federal cuts and tariffs, the new report concludes that confidence remains among Northern Virginia business leaders, and local companies will weather the economic instability despite uncertainty.  

Terry L. Clower, director of George Mason’s Center for Regional Analysis, offered insight on the subject to the Fairfax County Times. 

“The tariffs will raise the cost of doing business for a wide range of companies/industries operating in Fairfax County. These costs will inevitably be passed along to consumers, though in the near term, some of the costs will show up as lower profits for the companies. In some cases, such as tariffs on materials and parts making car prices higher and lowering total sales, it is possible the county will see tax revenue losses,” said Clower. 

Clower also provided some insight into the county’s economic outlook. “Fairfax County, and the region, are facing serious challenges to adapt to whatever the federal government is going to become over the next couple of years. The ingredients for future growth, with a smaller federal sector, are present, but we have to rethink the way we engage with businesses and become faster and more predictable in land use planning and management. The opportunity is out there, but we need elected leaders to change their collective thinking about how we do economic development,” Clower concluded.