European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Scotland this weekend for a critical face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump, as both sides edge closer to a high-stakes transatlantic trade agreement. The talks come just days ahead of an August 1 deadline for new US tariffs on European goods, a threat that has loomed over the negotiations for months. As per Reuters, Commission officials confirmed von der Leyen’s arrival on Saturday, with her meeting with President Trump scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

Trump, speaking to reporters on Friday evening upon arriving in Scotland for several days of golf and diplomacy, struck a measured but optimistic tone. “I’m looking forward to meeting with von der Leyen,” Trump said, calling her a “highly respected leader,” as quoted by Reuters. “There’s a 50-50 chance we get a deal. Brussels wants to make a deal very badly,” he added. The US president further claimed that the potential agreement with the 27-member European Union “would be the biggest trade deal yet” of his administration — even bigger than the $550 billion pact signed with Japan earlier this week.

Last-ditch diplomacy

According to Reuters, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick departed Washington on Saturday to participate in preparatory talks with EU officials ahead of Sunday’s summit. A senior US administration official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity and said that “We’re cautiously optimistic that there will be a deal reached. But it’s not over till it’s over.”

The European Commission echoed a similar sentiment last Thursday, saying a negotiated trade solution was “within reach.” However, EU member states simultaneously approved counter-tariffs on €93 billion ($109 billion) worth of US goods should the talks fail — a clear sign of both hope and hard-nosed preparation.

What’s in the deal?

A potential framework deal would likely impose a 15 per cent general tariff on EU goods entering the US, Reuters reported, mirroring the structure of the US–Japan trade agreement. In addition, European steel and aluminium exports may face a steep 50 per cent tariff. While these figures are painful, they are still lower than the 30 per cent tariffs Trump had previously threatened across the board. However, Trump made it clear that negotiations would not eliminate all duties.

“There’s not a lot of wiggle room on the 50% tariffs [on steel and aluminium] because if I do it for one, I have to do it for all,” Trump told reporters, as per Reuters. It remains unclear whether the US will exempt EU sectors such as automotive, pharmaceutical or agricultural products from other tariff measures already announced or under consideration. Trump also floated the idea that the EU could “buy down” the higher tariff rate to secure a deal, though he did not provide details on what that would entail.

$9.5 trillion at stake

The EU and US are each other’s largest trading partners, with combined goods, services and investment ties amounting to roughly $9.5 trillion, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels. That relationship is now at risk. In March, the Chamber warned that escalating tariffs and political tensions could jeopardise the “most important commercial relationship in the world.” Business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have urged negotiators to strike a deal that ensures predictability and stability.

EU diplomats remain cautiously hopeful but say the bloc is prepared for both outcomes. As reported by Reuters, some officials expect the deal to broadly follow the US–Japan model, involving staggered tariffs, reciprocal market access, and possibly coordinated investment rules, but concede that final details will depend on the political calculus at Sunday’s meeting. Whether Trump and von der Leyen can bridge the gap in Scotland could shape the global trade landscape for years to come.

(With inputs from the agencies)