“This must be the very last wake-up call”: ING chief economist warns EU after trade agreement with the US”

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2025/07/29/handelsakkoord-eu-vs-carsten-brzeski/

by Chipay

22 comments

  1. AI translation of the original Belgian article: 

    The EU and the US concluded a trade agreement last weekend: American importers will pay a 15 percent tariff on European products.

    Moreover, the EU promises hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, including in American energy and weapons.

    Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, considers the deal a final warning for Europe to strengthen its strategic autonomy.

    In brief:

    “That 15 percent was the highest achievable. We in the EU must realize that we were at the negotiating table from a position of weakness,” says Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, in a radio interview on De Ochtend (Radio 1) reacting calmly to the trade deal made over the weekend between the EU and the US.

    The US promises tariffs of “only” 15 percent; in exchange, the EU will invest massively in American energy and products. Critics, including the French Prime Minister, argue that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been rolled over, but Brzeski disagrees.

    “We are all Europe, the heads of government are also Europe. It’s typical to allow the Commission to negotiate and criticize afterwards,” he says. According to Brzeski, the EU had no real choice: “We are economically more dependent on the US than vice versa. We are so dependent on exports that we – rightly, in my opinion – did not dare to escalate fully.”

    “We just lay down for Trump, and apparently that was necessary to avoid worse.” However, the EU must learn lessons from this, Brzeski believes: “This should be the very last wake-up call for Europe to finally become truly independent and strengthen its own economy.”

    Worst case scenario’ avoided

    Economic stability was sought by the EU with this agreement. According to Brzeski, there is now a slight relief: “There is now relief that the ‘worst case scenario’ has been avoided. But it is still far from good: the European economy will certainly lose 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.”

    In Germany, the focus is mainly on the automobile industry, where a 15 percent tariff will apply instead of the previously imposed 25 percent. Are they relieved there?

    “Everything is relative, Einstein taught us. If you fear a hurricane, a storm feels better at first, but there is still damage. At the start of the year, the tariff was 2 percent, so there is an increase,” Brzeski explains.

    Difficult promise to realize

    What about the investments promised by the EU in America? Europe would purchase $750 billion worth of American energy, on top of buying American military equipment and investing $600 billion in the American economy.

    “I don’t know how we will import $750 billion in only American energy. We don’t need that at all,” Brzeski says. “The investments in American military equipment are useful. We want to spend a lot more on defense, but in Europe, we do not yet have the production capacity.”

    Finally, Brzeski is surprised by the promised $600 billion investment in the American economy: “I find that interesting because the European Commission cannot promise how much European companies will invest in the US. That promise, I think, is one that will be very difficult to fulfill.”

  2. Lol, why on earth would they actually genuinely do anything?

    Most people don´t know who their political representives are let alone the MEPs. There´s little to no accountability.

    The attitude from them is there´s always more taxpayers money that can be snatched up. Given the entire of the EU´s collaboration and power can´t or is unwilling to stop an illiterate Afghan from illegally breaking into the continent and then living there for the rest of their life on taxpayer funded welfare why on earth would we believe that when dealing with an economic & military super power it´ll suddenly become effective?

  3. Miss Ursula needs to go. No wonder we are so weak. Did anyone actually made an effort there? Last time Merkel was so soft with Putin, now Ursula with Trump. 😡

  5. When the EU taco’s before Trump does… they’ve learned nothing about appeasing Trump, he’s just going to come back for more. All they had to do was call Trump’s bluff. Every time someone does Trump collapses. Submitting just sets the stage for more opportunities to grovel and *still* not get the outcome they want.

  6. ITT: people that read the title and comment based on it. 

  7. Europe was supposed to have woken up to Trump a few months ago 
    Europe claims it needs more Europe to solve the problems caused by Europe.
    All EU members are pro-EU, but that’s not enough.
    Everything that’s happened with Russia has strengthened the pro-European position, but it’s not enough to remain dignified in the face of Trump.

    In short, Europe will never come out of this coma, and the pro-Europeans will blame the populists for pandering to the American people.

  8. Von Der Leyen can only tax its own citizens and be very firm when it comes to applying new laws to EU and its companies. When it comes to everything outside EU she agrees to anything.

  9. After all the talk about standing up to Trump, they folded stupidly quickly. Either the leadership is weak, or they know he won’t stick to this deal so it doesn’t matter what they promise him for some short term stability, because he will have torn it up in a few weeks as one of his latest tantrums.

    Probably the weak part, Europe really needs to take a step back from the USA and their madness…

  10. I ( Canadian) was discussing with a friend (American) about diversifying from US stocks into a basket of European stocks with the assumption that the Europeans, as a whole, could get their stuff together and figure out policies that would allow them to diversify and insulate themselves somewhat from US capriciousness.

    He (the American) has spent 3 years in Spain and somewhat pooh-pooh’ed my guarded optimism warning that his experience working and studying with an assortment of EU citizens (NL DE IT ESP SLO PL CZ) was that they are squabbled, were slow or essentially impossible to find agreement or complacent). In short, like any group of very different people squashed together.

    Sadly, this episode of the EU completely utterly bending knee to the US shows me that it would have wiser to keep my expectations about the EU low.

  11. But there is no deal: just some empty promises to send Trump home happy.

    Just think about it: it takes years to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU as any of the member states can veto it. They aren’t agreed in between a couple of rounds of golf and sealed with a handshake.

    And look at the “deal” on energy. Firstly the EU can’t tell independent companies where they have to buy there supplies from. Secondly $250 billion a year is just not feasible: it would mean breaking contracts with existing suppliers. And the USA companies would have difficulty supplying that much without cutting off their existing customers.

    China showed how to deal with Trump during his first term: pat him on the head, send him home with some empty promises and concentrate on making serious deals with everyone else.

  13. Trump wanted to look like a winner. We make it easier for him in exchange for keeping 15%. It is not necessary to do our part, he knows that we will not do it and he cares little

  14. >This must be the very last wake-up call

    Spoiler: it won’t

  15. What a weak weak Union. This money is going to make the USA stronger and EU weaker.

    Next negociation round is going to be even from a weaker position.

    Someone here thinks this isn’t the beginning of the end?

    I personally don’t think the Union will survive this medium term. Euro will tank to abysmal depths and Germany won’t be selling V8s for very much longer.

    I think the Union will collapse and nations will start to form adhoc efficient alliances on topics they really agree with.

  16. Stop buying American products.

    Stop using American services.

    That’s the only way to free ourselves.

  17. The very last wake up call was when Russia invaded Ukraine, there were more wake up calls since then but looks like the EU just prefers to sleep on.

  19. Germany went from 27,5 % taxes  on car  since april to 15% thanks to this deal, the only country  that actually won something after this shitshow

    Fuck everyone else i guess 

  20. I’d love to hear the same man talk about that deal if the german automobile sells were annihilated by the deal – with another good tradeoff for another european country mind me there – instead of being a bit better off as VdL negociated.

    I’m willing to bet it wouldn’t be quite the same input he’d have on the matter.

    Edit : I do, however, agree with this : we should get our asses off the couch and become sovereign in all strategic fields we can, so that we aren’t relying on the US anymore.

  21. No one should be doing any sort of deal with trump. You’ll be sorry you did. Guaranteed.

  22. I don’t believe in the UE “investment” or energy importation to that level. First all the investments called by Trump were projects already planned during the previous mandate. All the current foreign projects in the US are frozen due to the weight of the uncertainty.

    Then, the Commission doesn’t order to the private companies what to buy. They planned following their previsions and needs. And if Europe needs LNG, it doesn’t need that much. And the American exporters are happy to sell gas to the EU, but only enough to justify dragging the price up on the national market.

    The military part could be very concerning if the US uses it to force themselves on the EU market despite the will of some to build an EU military industry.

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