While it may be hard to envisage amid daily chaos in the US, the Trump years in the White House will eventually come to an end. And when Donald Trump is gone, there will be a massive shift in American politics at all levels.
The Republican Party has spent more than a decade trapped in the gravity of a single personality, and every election since 2016 has tightened Trump’s grip. He has been the binding agent for middle-class WASPs in the suburbs, rust-belt laborers who have felt left behind by the Democrats, corporate lobbyists looking to expand their influence and profits, and the menagerie of authoritarians, reactionaries, white-nationalists, Christian-nationalists, and libertarians.
So what happens when Trump is gone and the unifying piece of the party is no longer there? Who takes the torch?
The Candidates
Vice President J.D. Vance, Florida Governor and failed 2024 Presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio each represent elements in the GOP’s “suit and tie” reactionary front. Playing populist rhetoric to legitimize the unitary executive, they have sought both to empower and to benefit from the MAGA movement at the federal and state level.
Trump has been vague on his preferred candidate. He has walked back his references to a third term but has been indecisive in support for successor. He has said it is “too early” to back a Vance 2028 run, and has named Rubio as a second potential candidate.
To speculate, what would a Vance presidency look like? Vance has proven a divisive Vice President, with lower favorability ratings than Republican predecessors. Like Trump, he has branded himself as a political outsider taking on the establishment of the party, but he arguably lacks the populist fire that Trump has lit. Vance is far more active in pushing extreme policies, such as more votes for households with children.
If Vance secured the Presidency, this would cement MAGA and the anti-establishment wing as the new status quo for the GOP rather than a case of “Trump flu”. He would maintain and possibly expand Trump 2.0’s most ostentatious policies: mass deportations and raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, savaging of programs for economic and social security, geopolitical isolationism, and cozying up with authoritarian regimes from Russia to El Salvador.
While rhetorically playing to the “Trump base”, Marco Rubio could try to broaden his reach with clear space from Trump. He traces his roots to the establishment from the Florida Legislature to the US Senate to a Presidential run in 2016. Inside the Trump Administration, he has rebranded himself as a reactionary, including with the gutting of the State Department’s staff and bureaus, but it is far from clear if Rubio genuinely believes in the more extreme Trump-era policies, or if he is just trying to stay in MAGA’s good graces.
As Secretary of State, Rubio has the golden ticket within the Administration. He can deny connection to the worst of the administration’s domestic failures while claiming a share in its successes, particular if they grab headlines such as an end to Israel’s war on Gaza or Russia’s on Ukraine. He can avoid entanglement in the Epstein Files scandals.
Since his failed bid for president, Ron DeSantis has pulled back to the state level, offering space — and deniability, if the Trump era goes wrong — outside the federal orbit. But he has pushed for radical policy in line with the Administration. “Alligator Alcatraz” is not just a detention facility for migrants – it is a state-level model of what DeSantis could do as President. These displays, DeSantis hopes, will give him the populist edge to sweep up MAGA voters.
A Shifting Party Culture
Within the GOP, the divide is widening between the “pro-business” party and the new, faux-working-class aesthetic which Trump’s MAGA populism has promoted.
There can be no fence-sitters. Moderates have largely been ousted from the party, described as unelectable and challenged by Trumpists in primaries. Anyone perceived as out of line with Trump as RINO (Republican In Name Only) and doomed to be removed by loyalist candidates. The conservative party, looking to enact its goals through rule-of-law institutionalism, is vanquished by a reactionary movement that relies on core to legitimize its actions, whether they are deemed legal or not.
On the old-GOP side of the gap are a few groups and figures of note. Some business elites prefer stable Republican leadership that does not rock the boat, with the expectation that the party provides tax cuts and loosens regulations. When the populist wing acts too rashly, as in the case of Trump’s tariffs, profits are threatened.
But it is the “MAGA hard right”, helmed by ostentatious cultural figures pushed forward by Trump, that grabs the headlines and public momentum. Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock, and Elon Musk all spoke at Trump’s 2024 victory rally. The podcast hard right with characters like Joe Rogan and Theo Von propelled The Donald with endorsements. Conspiracy theorists moved from the fringe to the mainstream, from denial of COVID-19 and Robert Kennedy Jr.’s ascendancy to Health Secretary to denial of the 2020 election.
Trump is the glue that holds together the disparate groups on the hard right. To a business owner, he plays the stern dealmaker. To the libertarian, he is a gutter of wasteful spending, even as he piles on trillions in Government debt with his Big, Beautiful Bill. To a conspiracy theorist, he is an exposer-of-truths.
But as Trump’s falling out with Elon Musk and the ongoing party crisis over the Epstein Files indicate, the true believers in MAGA have to see action not just rhetoric. Musk appeared to believe genuinely that his so-called Department of Government Efficiency would cut wasteful spending. His break with Trump was fueled by a sense of betrayal over a Big and Not-So-Beautiful Bill.
Both Trump and his circle leaned on Epstein conspiracism, and now for some followers, they have been found to be failures or deceivers. The rhetoric of “cutting spending” and “exposing the truth” is no longer sufficient.
Passing the torch to the next leader will likely intensify these crises. A successor without Trump’s kaleidoscopic appeal could mean an exodus of many in these groups. Libertarians may go back to third-party dreams. Conspiracists may break away from a betrayal by “establishment politics”.
More Than A “Passing Illness”
The Republican Party does not have a passing illness in the form of Donald Trump. His administration is representative of a greater shift in the party’s culture and modus operandi. Vver the last decade, the GOP has slowly melded into MAGA, with even moderate members tacitly endorsing Trump and his inner circle.
The future of the party is not a decision between MAGA or the “old way”, but instead two different hard rights. One is the MAGA right, represented by Trump and possibly Vance, and the other is the reactionary but more institutional right of Marco Rubio.
The future of the party is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the traditional GOP is not coming back.