1) Bank of England meeting – 07/08 – it’s widely expected that the Bank of England will deliver another 25bps rate cut, taking the headline rate to 4% as it looks to try and cushion the UK economy from slowing growth and rising unemployment and an inflation rate that may yet still move further away from the central banks 2% target.

Unfortunately, the central bank is a hostage to a government that is driven more by the politics of student unionism, than pragmatism.

Despite being warned of the effects that wholesale tax rises would have in the lead up to last year’s October budget the government pressed ahead anyway, and are likely to have to come back again to plug the shortfalls which were warned about at the time.

Since that budget over 9-months ago and the 3 rate cuts, we’ve seen since then, UK gilt yields have moved in the opposite direction with the 10-year gilt above 4.5% while the 30-year has soared through 5.2% to its highest level this century.

With CPI already at 3.6% and its highest level since January 2024 the Bank of England’s room for manoeuvre when it comes to sharp rate cuts is limited and very much constrained by UK fiscal policy, which is likely to keep downward pressure on consumer demand for the rest of the year.

2) UK Services PMI (Jul) – 05/08 – the recent flash PMIs pointed to a slowdown in July after a solid June number of 52.8, slowing to 51.2, although there was an improvement in manufacturing to 48.2 and a 6-month high.

That was about as good as it got with the employment picture further deteriorating, with the composite employment component slipping to 45.1 from 46.6 in June.

Having got off to a solid start in Q1 of 0.7%, the UK economy appears to be hitting the wall and stagnating, with a sharp slowdown expected in Q2 and stagnation at best as Q3 gets underway.

3) European Services PMI (Jul) – 05/08 – it appears to be a similar story in Europe although the various PMI indicators are showing signs of improvement they are coming from a fairly low base and pointing to economic stagnation with both Germany and France showing lacklustre economic activity in both services as well as manufacturing.

4) BP H1 25 – 05/08 – BP’s Q1 numbers weren’t a particularly slick set of numbers, the shares fell sharply after the oil company announced a 48% decline in profits to $1.38bn from $2.7bn a year ago.

The main drag was in weaker than expected gas trading and refining.

Profits attributable to shareholders fell from $2.26bn to $687m, although at least it was an improvement on the almost $2bn loss in Q4. In a further sign that BP is serious about turning its focus back to hydrocarbons the company announced that its sustainability chief Giulia Chierchia would be gone by June 1.

Better late than never I suppose but at least it shows that Elliott Investment Management is starting to get the change it has been calling for.

While investors have remained unconvinced the shares have made progress since then however that appears to have been merely as a result of takeover speculation with Shell being touted as a possible suitor.

This speculation somewhat misses the point when it comes to BP’s problems. The outlook for Q2 wasn’t much better with BP saying that a maintenance program would likely mean lower production.

Having announced a $750m share buyback in Q1 there is little guarantee that these will continue in subsequent quarters.

BP did say it is looking to boost asset sales to $4bn this year, and is looking to cut spending by $500m, restating its capex targets for 2026 and 2027 the jury remains out as to whether current CEO Murray Auchincloss is the main to take the business forward.

Its debt levels remain too high and rose to almost $27bn in Q1, $3bn higher than Q4, and $2bn higher than a year ago.

BP has a target to reduce that net debt number to between $14bn and $18bn by the end of 2027, which is a big ask when you look at how the business has performed over the past 2 years.

While some of that can be funded from disposals like the recent deal to sell its US onshore wind business in Indiana, the rest will need to be funded by improved margins, cash flow and revenue.

Oil production and operations were its key revenue earner in Q1 but even here profits were lower, at $2.9bn.

The bar here is probably quite low when it comes to expectations but a change of management may be the catalyst that is needed here to help regain confidence in a company that has performed poorly for years now.

5) Diageo FY 25 – 05/08 – not had a great year so far with the shares falling to their lowest levels in almost a decade back in July.

CEO Debra Crew, who replaced Ivan Menezes in June 2023 has been unable to stem a share price decline which began back in 2022 and has shown little signs of slowing since hitting peaks of just over 4,000p.

Since then, the shares have halved and while we’ve seen a modest recovery from the July lows the rebound appears somewhat half-hearted.

The company’s woes started with profit warnings in late 2023, with weakness in Latin America, along with a slowdown in the US prompted a sharp slowdown in sales.

With concerns over tariffs adding additional headwinds, it’s not surprising that the shares have struggled, but have they fallen too far?

When Diageo reported in May Q3 sales were up 5.9% with improvements in the aforementioned core markets, although Asia Pacific struggled.

The company kept its full year guidance unchanged with H2 expected to be better than H1, based on the assumption that UK and European tariffs would remain at 10%, and that Mexican and Canadian imports would remain exempt under USMCA, and are expected to knock $150m off its operating profit.

While the company is looking to cut costs, it is also building a new manufacturing facility in Alabama as it looks to safeguard its biggest market.

6) Travis Perkins H1 25 – 05/08 – having seen a boost from its Q1 numbers back in April which saw the shares rally from 15-year lows just below 480p, and saw the shares rise to as high as 660p in June, the shares have since slipped back.

With the bar so low outperformance in its Toolstation division did the lion’s share of the heavy lifting, however that wasn’t enough to prevent group revenue falling 2.4% with the merchanting division seeing a 3.5% fall.

Toolstation on the other hand reported a 2.8% rise. Its performance stands in contrast to Wickes which has seen some solid gains this year with the shares at 3-year highs.

Having completed the sale of the Staircraft business for £24m in May the hope is that the appointment of new CEO Gavin Slark from SIG will enable this battered business to start a turnaround in fortunes, although the fact that he won’t take over much before the end of the year leaves the current business somewhat adrift, and recent share price performance appears to reflect that viewpoint.

7) IHG H1 25 – 06/08 – has had a pretty uninspiring quarter share price wise since its Q1 update in May. The Holiday Inn owner saw global revenue per room increase by 3.3%, with a strong performance in the Americas of 3.5% and EMEA of 5%. Greater China was disappointing with a slide of 3.5%.

Both business and leisure performed well with business revenue rising 3% and leisure revenue rising 2%.

While a $900m share buyback appears to have helped support the share price in the short term the hotel chain was fairly ambivalent about its prospects for full year 2025, keeping guidance unchanged and on track to meet consensus.

8) Disney Q3 25 – 06/08 – we’ve seen a gradual improvement in the share price of the Mouse House in the last few months, after a solid set of Q2 numbers helped propel the shares above $100 and to their highest levels since March 2024 in early July at $124. Revenues increased 7% to $23.6bn, while net income rose to $3.1bn, a sharp rise from the $0.7bn seen a year ago.

The parks and cruises division helped in this regard, with sales rising 6%, to $8.9bn, driven mainly by domestic parks, while the Disney+ streaming business also saw a pickup in subscriber numbers to 126m, an increase of 1.4m, and beating the rather downbeat forecast that predicted a fall.

Average monthly revenue per user also saw an improvement of 3% to $7.77 a user with the international market seeing the biggest improvement of 5% to an average of $7.52 a user.

On guidance for Q3 management said that they expected a modest pick-up in subscribers for Disney+ in Q3, although given the dreadful quality of recent film releases, like Snow White, Captain America Brave New World and Thunderbolts, that may prove to be optimistic, and could prove to be a drag on the film production business and profitability there.

For the full year Disney said it expects to see a 16% increase in full year profits.

9) Uber Q2 25 – 06/08 – has had a rather uninspiring quarter share price wise, after a disappointing Q1 update.

Q1 revenues of $11.53bn fell short, although profits came in well ahead of forecasts at 83c a share, or $1.83bn compared to a $654m loss a year ago.

On all other measures Uber showed decent growth in services and mobility with an almost even split when it comes to revenues for both.

On guidance Gross Bookings are expected to come in between $45.75bn and $47.25bn.