Why is the birth rate in Germany falling more and more?

Julia Brandner was 28 when she underwent sterilization. For the procedure, her gynecologist asked for a psychiatric report on her mental capacity, even though the law only requires consent for women over 25. Brandner is surprised by the intensity of the debate surrounding her book.

She sees a shift to the right towards more traditional values, where women should return to the kitchen and take care of the children. The AfD, which is partly far-right, has taken up the issue of the falling birth rate and calls for more children as a means of combating the shortage of skilled workers instead of immigration.

Brandner’s criticism: Even in 2025, the burden of raising children will fall almost entirely on women. “It is precisely the many single mothers who are left alone, while fathers are held to account for little. Having children is a major risk of poverty for women. It is unacceptable that even today a woman has to sacrifice her own well-being to ensure the well-being of society.”

Birth rates are falling worldwide

Germany is not alone in its declining fertility rate. Across the world, the numbers are falling dramatically, in South Korea the drop is to 0.75 – the only exception is the Sahel region, where women still give birth to more than five children on average.

Michaela Kreyenfeld is a sociologist and co-author of the German government’s report on the family. She sees an increasingly strong connection between economic crises and insecurities and attitudes towards fertility. In an interview with DW, she says: “Is it selfishness or just self-determination that makes women not want to have children? We’ve been talking about this since the 1970s, so it’s nothing new.” But the multiple crises are new. “The coronavirus pandemic, rapid climate change and high inflation. This is another new situation, especially for the younger generation.”

Elon Musk and pro-natalists advocate more children

A counter-movement is currently emerging in the US, with the richest man in the world as its most prominent representative at the forefront: Pronatalists and Elon Musk want to bring as many children into the world as possible.

Even Russian President Vladimir Putin is urging Russian women to have more children – anyone who supports childlessness faces a fine of up to 4,000 euros, says Kreyenfeld. Neither the well-being of the children nor the parents, and certainly not the woman, is the focus of interest – the key word: teenage pregnancies. The conditions in which children are born are therefore secondary.

A cautionary example from Eastern Europe’s past, says the sociologist, is Romania: “President Ceausescu took massive measures at the time and increased the birth rate from 1.8 to 4 within a year, limiting access to contraceptives and imposing draconian penalties for abortion. The result was the so-called ‘lost generation’ in Romania: the generation whose parents did not take care of their children because they did not love them at all.”

“Fertility gap” – the gap between desire and possibilities

So what can be done to increase the birth rate again without political pressure? Martin Bujard, who is more than anyone else an expert on the birth rate in Germany and knows the figures for the last two decades down to the decimal point, knows the answer. The deputy director of the German Institute for Population Studies says that the debate about women who voluntarily remain childless like Julia Brandner misses the point.

“If someone doesn’t want to have children, it’s their free decision. This shouldn’t be stigmatized; however, it’s becoming increasingly acceptable to live a childless life.” But the point is elsewhere: “We ask empirically about the desire for children – and this shows that as recently as 2024 the desire for children was on average around 1.8 children per woman and per man, which is significantly higher than the birth rate of 1.35. If these desires to have children, which exist, were to be realized, we would have fewer demographic problems and much more well-being in the long term.”

The “fertility gap” is the gap between the desired number of children and the birth rate, which means that many women end up having only one child instead of the desired two. This is because they can find a stable relationship later in life, because children are increasingly seen in the social debate as a problem rather than an asset, and because politics could do more than it currently does.

Tasks for Germany: Improving conditions 

Martin Bujard praises Germany’s past efforts at family policy, such as expanding kindergartens and all-day schools, as well as introducing financial assistance for parents in the early 2000s. This paradigm shift has attracted international attention, as Germany has been among the countries with the worst birth rates in the world for decades.

However: “Since 2013 we have had a legal right to child support, but that is no longer so reliable, because childcare is often lacking. There is a shortage of qualified workers and very little money flows into the system. If there were enough money, we would also talk about higher salaries for educators.”

Germany is being urged to do more in family policy, as the trend is worrying: 22 percent of women and 36 percent of men between the ages of 30 and 50 currently have no children, according to the German Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth. Young female academics in particular are increasingly childless. The only way is to improve the balance between work and family life, says the deputy director of the German Institute for Population Studies.

“The worst-case scenario is that with a further decline in the birth rate in 2030, social security will face even more serious problems in the long term. This would cost welfare a lot: social security contributions would have to be increased, pensions would fall and cuts would also have to be made in healthcare. The shortage of qualified workers would deepen, and it could only be remedied to a limited extent through further immigration.” /DW