Trump Will Slow, but May Not Stop, the Rise of Electric Vehicles | President Trump and Republicans in Congress are eliminating federal incentives to buy electric vehicles, but carmakers need to keep selling and investing in them.

6 comments

1. The US is 15% of the global auto market, both the EU and China are bigger. The US doesn’t have the market power to stop EVs, and US automakers will be reduced to niche regional manufacturers if they don’t keep up with electrification of transportation.

2. The free market will decide.

3. Every automaker knows that global conventional crude oil production peaked in 2005, global all-liquids production peaked in 2018, Ghawar is in decline, and 75% of the primarily oil yielding locations in US shale basins have already been drilled in the last 15 years.

   Regardless of what sells in 2025, they’ll need globally competitive EVs in 2035. If that means taking small losses on each one to stay competitive and retain market share, they’ll do it. Peak oil is an existential threat to ICE only auto manufacturers.

4. Trump thinks that the US is the sole dominant market in the world and he can dictate what he wants regardless of billion dollar incentives otherwise.

   He isn’t used to be told no so directly and firmly.

5. While development for US market EVs will slow because incentives and emissions penalties are gone, the auto manufacturers will still keep developing for other countries with more advanced EV and zero emissions push. When the US does swing back in the other direction, at least the auto companies won’t be starting over if they just borrow from non-US market designs and platforms.

6. With climate, winning slowly is the same as losing.

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