In the last week of July, prices in most European electricity markets fell thanks to increased solar photovoltaic and wind energy production, as well as lower demand in several countries. Daily solar generation records for the month of August were broken in Spain, Italy, Portugal, and France. In the fuel and CO₂ markets, futures experienced volatility, closing with values close to those of the previous week.
During the week of July 28, solar PV production increased in most major European electricity markets, reversing the negative trend of the previous week. The French market recorded the largest increase, 8.6%, while the Italian market posted the smallest, 0.3%. The Spanish and German markets recorded increases of 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. As an exception, the Portuguese market reduced its solar PV production for the second consecutive week, this time by 6.7%.
During the week, solar PV generation markets broke records for the month of August. On Friday, August 1, the Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese markets set new all-time highs for daily generation for this month, with 196 GWh, 143 GWh, and 27 GWh, respectively. The following day, August 2, the French market generated 133 GWh, setting its daily generation record for August.
For the week of August 4, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s solar production forecasts , photovoltaic solar production will increase in the German, Italian and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
During the week of July 28, wind energy production increased in the Italian, Spanish, and German markets by 22%, 26%, and 60%, respectively, compared to the previous week. The Spanish market maintained this upward trend for the third consecutive week, while the Italian and German markets repeated it for the second week. In contrast, the Portuguese and French markets reduced their wind energy production by 21% and 25%, respectively. The French market accumulated declines for the second week, while the Portuguese market reversed its trend after two weeks of increasing wind energy production.
In the week of August 4, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s wind energy production forecasts , wind energy production will decrease in all the markets analyzed.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electrical demand
During the week of July 28, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest decline, 12%, while the Spanish market saw the smallest drop, 0.8%. The German, French, and British markets recorded declines of 2.3%, 2.7%, and 2.8%, respectively.
With the exception of the German market, these markets accumulated declines for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, the Portuguese and Belgian markets increased their demand after registering declines during the previous three weeks. Demand increased by 6.8% in the Portuguese market, and by 1.2% in the Belgian market. In the latter, demand recovered after the celebration of July 21, Belgian National Day.
Average temperatures fell in most markets, favoring a reduction in demand in those markets. The decreases ranged from 0.4°C in France to 2.6°C in Italy. Only in Spain and Portugal did average temperatures rise by 0.8°C and 1.4°C, respectively.
For the week of August 4, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s demand forecasts , demand will increase in the German, British, French, Belgian, and Spanish markets. On the other hand, demand will decrease in the Portuguese and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the last week of July, the average prices of the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The N2EX market in the United Kingdom and the IPEX market in Italy registered the smallest decreases, of 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage drop in prices, of 24%. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , prices fell between 12% in the EPEX SPOT market in Belgium and 21% in the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal.
During the week of July 28, weekly averages were below €80/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets, whose averages were €88.77/MWh and €104.28/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the Nordic market reached the lowest weekly average, €29.95/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , prices ranged from €43.28/MWh in the Spanish market to €76.44/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, August 3, prices remained below €45/MWh in most markets. On that day, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the markets analyzed, at €7.59/MWh. Meanwhile, prices in the Italian market remained above €100/MWh during most sessions in the last week of July. On Friday, August 1, the Italian market reached its highest daily average of the week, at €113.27/MWh.
During the week of July 28, declining demand and increased solar production in most markets led to falling prices in European electricity markets. Wind power production also increased in Germany, Spain, and Italy.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of August, prices will rise in the Iberian, Italian, and French markets, influenced by the drop in wind energy production in these markets. However, price declines will continue in the rest of the main European electricity markets, favored by the increase in solar energy production in some cases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.