The war between Israel and Iran came and went in June, leaving a false sense of calm in its wake. Israel attacked Iran, with support from the United States, supposedly with the aim of destroying Tehran’s nuclear capacities. The U.S. then escalated, intervening directly in the war with its famed bunker-buster bombs, but supposedly with the aim of de-escalating. A ceasefire was indeed reached soon thereafter.
Pointing to the damage done to Iran’s nuclear facilities and military capabilities, the U.S. and Israel believe that the war weakened Tehran and possibly made it more malleable, leaving it much further from being able to produce nuclear weapons and eager to return to the diplomatic table. For its part, Iran seems convinced instead that the war has to the contrary demonstrated its resilience and the limits of Israel’s military power, pointing to the fact that the regime is still standing, that at least some of its nuclear facilities have apparently not been obliterated and that the Iranian population has rallied around the flag.
On one level, a situation in which each side believes it has won—or at least has not lost—should give us hope that the ceasefire might hold. On another, though, neither Israel nor Iran believe it will, and both are preparing for the next round of escalation.