Belarus—nestled between the European Union, Ukraine, and Russia—has long been overlooked and underestimated by outsiders, who often see it as little more than an extension of Russia. This perception stems largely from the grip of the country’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko. Since 1994, he has transformed Belarus into a repressive state marked by fraudulent elections, systemic violence, and a deepening reliance on Moscow and Beijing.
But five years ago, Belarusians made it clear that they do not want to live in a belligerent autocracy, isolated from the rest of Europe and the rest of the world. In 2020, I entered Belarus’s presidential election to stop Lukashenko from claiming a sixth term. I didn’t expect to win; Lukashenko had rigged every previous contest. But my message—free the country’s political prisoners, end repression, hold real elections, and restore the rule of law—struck a nerve. According to independent observers, Belarusians overwhelmingly voted for me. When Lukashenko declared himself the winner anyway, the country exploded in the largest peaceful uprising in its modern history. Up to 1.5 million people flooded the streets of Belarusian cities demanding change.
I did not intend to enter politics. I was an English teacher and then a full-time mother focused on helping my hearing-impaired son. My husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was the political one—an entrepreneur whose blog exposed the daily humiliations of life under dictatorship. His words inspired thousands. When he announced his candidacy in May 2020, the regime arrested him days later. I decided to run in his place—not out of ambition, but out of love.
The response to the protests was brutal. To clear the streets, the regime carried out waves of mass arrests, engaged in widespread torture, and generally terrorized the populace. It detained tens of thousands of people, and it beat hundreds more. I was forced into exile, along with many others. But still, the uprising shook the regime to its core. The demonstrations might have succeeded, if not for Russian President Vladimir Putin. To prepare for his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin needed Belarus as a launching pad. He thus propped up Lukashenko by sending in security advisors and other kinds of operatives, providing financial assistance, and signaling a readiness to intervene more intensely—saving Lukashenko’s rule in return for obedience and Belarus’s subjugation. Today, my country remains under de facto Russian occupation. Nine million people are being held hostage by a regime that answers not to them, but to the Kremlin.
Although Lukashenko was able to stop the protests, Belarusians still yearn for freedom. Operating outside the country, my colleagues and I are working to liberate our homeland. We have established a government in exile, staffed with Belarusian activists and defectors from the regime, prepared to take charge of rebuilding the country. We have formalized ties with American and European officials. Many countries now see me as Belarus’s legitimate leader. We have even made inroads with regime insiders who are ready for change.
The spirit of resistance, in other words, endures. And with it, so does the possibility of Belarusian democracy.
AT THE READY
Belarus is a European nation. It has its own language, history, and identity. It has a long tradition of democratic aspirations and of support for its western neighbors. Despite censorship and repression, polls consistently show that Belarusians oppose Russia’s war on Ukraine, reject tyranny, and support democracy. Only four percent favor unification with Russia. Over 60 percent oppose Putin’s deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil.
These numbers are not anomalies. They are evidence of a deep, pro-independence and pro-European orientation that the regime cannot extinguish. They have made it tricky for Putin to do as he wishes in Belarus, despite his and Lukashenko’s tyranny. Putin failed, for example, to drag the Belarusian army into his war. In fact, Belarusian railway workers have sabotaged Russian military logistics, starting in the early weeks of the invasion. Many Belarusians have even joined Ukraine’s defense, forming the Kalinouski Regiment: the largest foreign volunteer unit in Ukraine’s army.
Because of repression, resistance to Lukashenko has shifted underground and out of the country. But even in exile, the Belarusian opposition has built a rare thing: a unified, credible, and ready alternative to dictatorship. We have formed the United Transitional Cabinet and Coordination Council, in which representatives are elected using digital tools. These bodies represent the democratic will of the Belarusian people and provide practical support to those still inside Belarus and to over half a million Belarusians now in exile. They serve as a viable structure of governance—a government in waiting.
History shows that dictatorships often collapse unexpectedly.
In addition to this cabinet and council, our movement includes a network of civil society organizations, diaspora groups, independent media, education and legal services, and humanitarian aid providers that help the repressed and their families. We work with religious groups, small businesses, and labor unions to sustain social solidarity, defend workers’ rights, and preserve Belarusian identity and civic life despite the dictatorship. Our media platforms continue to reach millions inside Belarus, despite press restrictions.
Our movement is delivering on its pledges. Inspired by a step taken by the Estonian government in exile that formed in the 1940s to oppose Soviet occupation, we have introduced a new Belarusian passport for exiles and drafted a new constitution. We formalized cooperation with the European Union and the Council of Europe. And we are carrying out a strategic dialogue with the U.S. State Department to increase pressure on the regime, to support our movement for freedom, and to ensure that Belarus remains on the international agenda and that it features in conversations about Europe’s security architecture. These steps will help ensure that whenever Belarus has its next political opening, we can swiftly take action and turn the country toward democracy.
Right now, such an opening may seem unlikely. But history shows that dictatorships often collapse unexpectedly—triggered by internal or external shocks. Lukashenko, for example, is aging, and discussions about an inevitable transition of power have already begun within the regime’s highest circles. Unfortunately for them, the system he built is entirely centered on himself and lacks any legitimate or stable mechanism for succession. Unlike some autocrats, Lukashenko also has no viable heir. That makes his system brittle. When a power vacuum emerges, we are working to ensure that Belarus is handed over to us, not to Putin.
We are defending what is left of Belarus’s independence.
To do so, we are already sending a clear message to the regime’s elites: there is a chance for a negotiated, peaceful transition. We are proposing a roundtable dialogue between representatives of the democratic forces and those in the regime who are ready to talk about change. The goal of such a roundtable is to achieve national reconciliation and end the political crisis through a peaceful, negotiated transition. This model is inspired by the Polish round table of 1989 between Solidarity, the country’s opposition movement at the time, and the authorities, who were enfeebled by a weakened Moscow and by U.S. and European sanctions. It ended with Solidarity taking charge.
The Belarusian regime, like the Polish one then, is far less monolithic than it appears. Inside ministries, security services, and even state-run media, there are officials who are disillusioned. Some of them are already leaking valuable information to us, including on how Minsk evades sanctions. These insiders could prove crucial when the window for change opens. That is why we keep quiet but active lines of communication with them. They know that change is inevitable—and that their own future depends on being part of it. In fact, our task is to expand these contacts while maintaining the support of Belarusians and preserving pro-European sentiment. We are working to prevent Russian propaganda from poisoning Belarusian society.
We are also defending what is left of Belarus’s independence. For decades, Lukashenko tried to play Europe and Russia off each other, but today, he is entirely dependent on the latter. As long as he remains in power, Minsk will only more closely align itself with Moscow, to the point where Belarus could become little more than a Russian military outpost.
THE POWER OF PRESSURE
Given the regime’s heavy reliance on the Kremlin, a democratic Belarus is not only in the best interest of Belarusians. It is in the best interest of the United States and the European Union. If Belarus is free, Russia will no longer have the same military balcony in Europe, and that will reduce pressure on NATO’s eastern flank and lower the bloc’s defense costs. In fact, a free Belarus could become a source of regional stability and a true security partner for Ukraine. A democratic Belarus would contribute to digital innovation (the country has a top-notch IT sector), support energy diversification, and facilitate trade. Unlike Lukashenko, it would contribute to border security rather than weaponizing migration to provoke instability in Europe.
To be clear, we are not asking outsiders to change our country for us. That is our job, our mission, and our responsibility. But we do ask for help in making this transformation achievable.
The United States and the European Union have already taken many essential, useful steps. After the Belarusian election was stolen in 2020, they developed a three-pronged approach to support the Belarusian people: weakening Lukashenko’s regime, supporting pro-freedom and pro-European aspirations, and assisting in an eventual transition. To that end, both imposed sanctions on the regime. Lithuania and Poland gave refuge to hundreds of thousands of Belarusians, and Washington and the EU provided support to independent Belarusian media, activists, and projects aimed at preserving national identity. The EU has even pledged over $3 billion to support Belarus through its democratic transition once it begins—a powerful signal that Belarus belongs in Europe. They have continued to draw a line between the Belarusian people and the regime, even after the latter helped Moscow drive toward Kyiv. That distinction is one of the key achievements of our movement.
Emptying a ballot box to count votes during the Belarus presidential election, Minsk, Belarus, January 2025 Evgenia Novozhenina / Reuters This approach must continue. At times, I hear analysts call for a return to working with Lukashenko as a means of isolating the Kremlin, as if the two can be separated. Instead, the United States and Europe must double down on its support of Belarus’s people through technical assistance for Belarusian civil society, independent media, human rights activists, cultural organizations, digital security tools, and diaspora networks. They are the oxygen of resistance. That support must be extended to exiles and our institutions. Russia is pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up Lukashenko’s regime. The United States and Europe must make sure we can keep building a strong, resilient alternative.
Some U.S. and EU analysts may wonder whether regime change is feasible when Russia is so committed to keeping Lukashenko around. Morally, the future of Belarus is not for Moscow to decide, but in reality, much will depend on Russia’s strength during any moment of crisis and on the outcome of its war against Ukraine. If Russia is weak and contained, then Belarus has a chance. For this reason, American and European officials cannot ignore Belarus as they begin to discuss ceasefires, Ukraine, and lasting peace in the region. Other states must ensure that Moscow won’t interfere when change in Belarus begins—and that Belarus does not become a consolation prize for a defeated Putin.
In the meantime, Washington and the EU can increase their punitive actions toward Minsk. They could, for instance, apply more secondary sanctions and restrict the cargo trade through the EU-Belarus border, one major source of income for the regime. Even the threat of such actions could make a difference for Belarus’s cash-strapped government. We must raise the cost for Minsk of every act of repression and every crime it commits. That is why we are also calling on other countries to support Lithuania’s initiative at the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice to hold the regime accountable for its crimes. We understand that ending Lukashenko’s regime may require some kind of settlement: if Lukashenko were to step down voluntarily and agree to free and fair elections under international supervision, for example, other states could consider giving him and his family personal security guarantees. In fact, we proposed doing this in 2020. But in general, to end the regime’s impunity, its perpetrators must be brought to justice.
THE ART OF THE DEAL
Unfortunately, over the past five years, I’ve often felt that international organizations such as the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have struggled to respond meaningfully to crises like the one in Belarus. Too often, their actions stop at words of condemnation. They lack the tools or the political will, or they are paralyzed by rules demanding consensus and by the obstruction of authoritarian members.
Individual world leaders, however, are a different story. As I have met presidents and prime ministers—at the G-7, the UN General Assembly, and other global platforms—I have realized how crucial personal initiative truly is. I have witnessed bold leadership on Belarus from leaders such as President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Vice President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Perhaps most important, I have witnessed such leadership from U.S. President Donald Trump. It was during his first administration that the United States took decisive action against Lukashenko—action that largely shaped the transatlantic approach to Belarus. Washington was among the first governments to react to his brutal 2020 crackdown, imposing sanctions on his regime. Trump appointed Julie Fisher as ambassador to Belarus. She was denied entry by the regime, but she later brilliantly served as the U.S. special envoy for Belarus until 2022 and now works as the American chargé d’affaires in Kyiv.
Belarus is part of Europe’s story.
Trump has continued this strong track record during his second term in office. Retired general Keith Kellogg—the president’s Ukraine envoy—secured the release of several Belarusian political prisoners, including U.S. citizens and my husband, Siarhei, who had spent five years in solitary confinement. I will be forever grateful to Trump and his team for this breakthrough. It was not only a humanitarian mission but also a clear demonstration of American leverage. Lukashenko fears Trump’s unpredictability, and so he chose to release Siarhei rather than risk stronger sanctions or some other escalation that could endanger his hold on power. He got nothing from Washington in return. Today, we urge Trump to go even further and use that same leverage to push for the release of the remaining 1,150 political prisoners. Doing so could mark the beginning of de-escalation between the Belarus regime and democratic forces. If his efforts succeed, Trump could score the greatest humanitarian victory for Belarus in modern history.
Trump need not fear the consequences of deeper involvement. Unlike many global crises, Belarus is not mired in civil war, ethnic conflict, or ideological divisions. It is in a decades-long standoff, rooted in one man’s relentless grip on power. For Trump, this is a low-cost, high-impact opportunity. Belarus could become his foreign policy success story—one that sends a message to other entrenched authoritarian regimes, including in Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela, that they are not secure.
To strengthen and coordinate these efforts, it is time to again appoint a U.S. special envoy for Belarus, just as Kellogg was appointed for Ukraine. This envoy can work closely with Washington’s EU partners and our movement on releasing political prisoners, synchronizing sanctions policy, and ensuring that Belarus moves along the path of reform.
I am confident that the U.S. Congress will support this approach. Belarus remains one of the few foreign policy issues that unites lawmakers across party lines. Democrats and Republicans alike, in both the House and the Senate, believe in the steps I have laid out. An updated version of the bipartisan Belarus Democracy Act—which has historically authorized support for Belarusian civil society, independent media, and political prisoners, while mandating sanctions against regime officials—is already being drafted, with both Democratic and Republican sponsors. It can serve as a blueprint for action.
STOP AT NOTHING
I often say the fight for freedom is not a sprint—but a marathon. Yet it still requires being ready at a moment’s notice. Even the most entrenched dictatorships can suddenly fall.
Fortunately, Belarusians are ready. They are peaceful, patient, and resilient. We are fighting for their dignity, for justice, and for their right to live at home, in peace. They want what every American and European already enjoys: the right to speak freely, to worship without fear, to choose our representatives, to shape our own future, and to live with dignity. They are the values that bind us to our neighbors to the west.
They are also the values that inspire me to keep fighting, as are the thousands of families who are still waiting for their loved ones and the hundreds of thousands of Belarusians who remain in exile. The regime may have believed that releasing my husband would silence me. But it has only reignited my resolve. With Siarhei beside me, and with the strength of our people, I will continue this struggle with double the energy.
Some may say Belarus is too small to matter. But we are part of Europe’s story, and we have paid a high price to advance the continent’s overall freedom. We will not give up. The question is not whether change will come to Belarus. The question is who will be ready when it does.
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