Renta 4 | On Friday, the ECB released the results of the stress test. This exercise, we recall, does not establish a pass/fail threshold, but is designed to provide additional information for the supervisory review and evaluation process.

The adverse stress scenario has been designed by the EBA/JERS for a three-year time horizon (2025-2027) and assumes a hypothetical worsening of geopolitical tensions, with very negative and persistent trade and confidence shocks, which have strong adverse effects on private consumption and investment, both nationally and globally.

For the comparison of how the application of the stress test assumptions affects CET 1, the capital level as at December 2024 recalculated under the new CRR3 capital regulations has been used.

At European level, with a CET 1 starting point of 15.8%, the stress test shows a level of 16.9% in December 2027 in the baseline scenario and 12.1% in the adverse scenario.

Bankinter. In the baseline scenario and assuming full implementation of CRR3 (‘fully loaded’), the capital level would stand at 12.74% in December 2025 (versus 7.81% SREP 2025 and 12.4% in December 2024), 14.10% in December 2026 and 15.19% in December 2027. These levels would fall to 10.22%, 10.84% and 11.49%, respectively, in the adverse scenario. In terms of the capital ratio, in the adverse scenario in Dec-25 it would stand at 10.35% (versus 12.56% in 1H25) and 12.95% in the base scenario.

Unicaja. In the adverse scenario and assuming full implementation of CRR3 (‘fully loaded’), the capital level would stand at 12.2% in Dec-25 (versus 8.21% SREP 2025 versus 15.07% in Dec-24), 12.5% in Dec-26 and Dec-27. In the baseline scenario, CET 1 would be fully loaded at 17.95% in December 2027.

Assessment: The results show solid figures in the baseline scenario, with capital levels increasing to December 2027 for all listed Spanish banks and an average loss of 1.9 pp versus December 2024, with Sabadell and Unicaja as the entities with the greatest capital deterioration.

In the adverse scenario, as of December 2027, the average CET 1 ratio for Spanish banks would stand at 11.2%, compared to average SREP requirements as of December 2025 of less than 10%.