What are the options for Ukraine’s border? Maps explained

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1. European countries believe that any ceasefire should be based on the present 680-mile long front line, which has remained largely static since Russian forces were pushed back after the initial invasion in 2022, despite counteroffensives by Ukraine.

   Russian troops have continued to make advances in the east of Ukraine, however, and Putin may be reluctant to halt his offensive. For example, he is close to encircling the town of Pokrovsk, which has long been a target. Even small gains in territory can put Ukraine’s logistics and supply lines at risk of attacks from Russia’s FPV (first-person view) drones.

   The two provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk are known collectively as the Donbas. Fighting has been going on there since 2014. Ukraine has almost lost the entirety of Luhansk but still controls a third of Donetsk. Putin is said to have named his price for a ceasefire as the whole Donbas, which would mean Ukraine abandoning its entrenched defensive positions in Donetsk, leaving it vulnerable to further attack.

2. As much as it sucks for Ukraine, the reality is we don’t live in a superhero movie. In real life, sometimes the bad guys win. Ukraine has fought with a level of courage no other nation in the west has witnessed in a generation, but the truth is they’re the 40th most populated country on earth fighting the 9th most populated country on earth. They have a manpower problem. And no amount of weapons and arms sales are going to overcome that. The only way Ukraine can reclaim the lost eastern provinces is if western powers get involved directly and that’s not going to happen.

   Land swap is normal in war. It happened to Germany. It happened to Mexico. It happened to China. It will probably happen to Ukraine too.

3. No one knows which territories will be exchanged, but it is most likely that the Donetsk territory (about 6,000 sq.km) will be exchanged for territories in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions (1,300 sq.km)

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