Crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after a sharp fall at the start of the week due to news that the United States would delay the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods for 90 days as trade negotiations continue.
At press time, international benchmark Brent crude was trading at $66.98 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $64.25 per barrel.
Both benchmarks have shed a cumulative 10 per cent since the start of the year, according to Bloomberg data released on Monday.
While Brent prices recovered marginally, Nigeria’s key crude grades, Brass and Qua Iboe, traded at about $68.80 and $68.85 per barrel, respectively.
The Nigerian blends have remained stagnant in price since 8 August, signalling muted demand growth in their target markets.
The rebound came after Washington announced that it would postpone the planned tariff increases on Chinese imports for three months. The delay appeared to offer oil traders renewed hope that the protracted trade dispute could be resolved without severe disruption to the global economy.
China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, and its demand outlook has a significant influence on global pricing.
Despite the slight price recovery, Nigeria’s oil earnings remain under strain. Official data by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that oil revenue for June 2025 stood at N630.96 billion, just 52.37 per cent of the monthly budget target of N1.2 trillion.
Nigeria is expected to produce about 2.06 million barrels of crude per day at $75 per barrel. The country has been unable to meet this since January, making the 2025 budget revenue projections a mere aspiration.
This represents a shortfall of N573.84 billion, equivalent to a 47.63 per cent underperformance, placing further pressure on both federal and state governments that depend heavily on petroleum revenues for fiscal operations.
The June figure reflected a marginal improvement from the N615.13 billion reported in May 2025, largely due to the recovery of gas flare penalties owed by upstream operators. However, analysts warn that without a sustained rise in production volumes and export demand, government finances will remain tight.
Beyond trade developments, markets are closely watching the planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, set for Friday.
Expectations are centred on a possible breakthrough to end the war in Ukraine, which has cast a shadow over global oil supply chains.
While some traders hope for progress, sentiment remains cautious.
Speaking on Monday, President Trump said: “I am going in to speak to Vladimir Putin, and I am going to be telling him, you’ve got to end this war. You’ve got to end it. It is not up to me to make a deal. I think a deal can be made for both.”
B Any agreement to end the conflict could ease concerns over disruption to Russian crude exports, a factor that has supported oil prices since the war began.
“Any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would end the risk of disruption to Russian oil that has been hovering over the market,” said ANZ analyst, Daniel Hynes as quoted by Reuters.
However, if the talks fail, the United States is expected to proceed with additional sanctions, including secondary measures targeting countries that continue to buy Russian oil, notably India and China.
Analysts estimate that such measures could trigger an immediate spike in oil prices, with projections ranging from $80 to $200 per barrel.
For Nigeria, the combination of volatile global prices, stagnant premium grades, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty presents a complex challenge.
While the delay in U.S. tariffs on China has offered temporary relief to the oil market, domestic revenue figures highlight the fragility of the country’s fiscal position.
Market watchers say the next few days, shaped by U.S.–China trade negotiations and the Trump–Putin meeting, could prove decisive for short-term oil price trends. For now, both traders and policymakers remain on alert for developments that could send prices sharply in either direction.