Published on
August 13, 2025
In a concerning new update for European tourism, Germany has now joined the ranks of countries like Russia, the UK, Italy, Greece, France, and Spain in facing a steady decline in tourist arrivals. This development signals an unsettling trend for the continent’s tourism industry, with several nations grappling with factors that are pushing the sector beyond the known and into uncertain territory.
The reasons behind this gradual decline are multifaceted. Economic pressures, particularly rising inflation, increased travel costs, and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, have made Europe a more expensive destination. These factors are affecting both domestic and international travel, with many potential visitors opting for cheaper alternatives. Geopolitical tensions, especially the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the ripple effects of Brexit, have also contributed to reduced travel to certain European countries. In addition, overtourism and local resistance in popular destinations like Spain and Italy are further compounding the issue.
As countries like Germany, Russia, the UK, Italy, Greece, France, and Spain experience this decline, European tourism is finding itself at a crossroads. What was once a booming and reliable sector is now facing unpredictable downturns, pushing the future of tourism in Europe into uncharted waters. In this article, we delve into the causes of this decline and explore the ripple effects it has across the European tourism landscape.
The Overall Decline
According to Eurostat, European tourism experienced a slight decline in 2025 compared to the previous year. The first quarter of 2025 saw 452.4 million overnight stays in EU tourist accommodations, a 0.2% decrease from the same period in 2024. In January 2025, there were 139.0 million nights (+3.5% from January 2024), but February and March saw decreases of 0.8% and 2.7%, respectively. These declines reflect the broader economic factors affecting European tourism, including rising costs and changing travel habits. Economic inflation, which continues to pressure domestic spending, and geopolitical instability are also contributing to the reduced number of visitors in many countries.
United Kingdom Feels the Chill
The UK tourism sector is feeling the chill in 2025, particularly outside of London. VisitBritain forecasts 43.4 million visits to the UK in 2025, a 5% increase from 2024. However, spending per visitor is expected to remain subdued, as high inflation and a strong pound make the country a less attractive destination. Real-term spending is still below pre-pandemic levels, despite more visitors coming to the UK. The loss of VAT-free shopping for non-EU visitors and Brexit-related issues such as stricter visa requirements for EU nationals have also contributed to a decline in EU tourist numbers. The combination of these factors is leading to slower growth in certain regions of the UK, particularly in less tourist-heavy areas outside London.
Ukraine’s Conflict Effect
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to devastate its tourism sector. The war has resulted in the destruction of critical infrastructure, including cultural landmarks and tourist attractions, making it unsafe for tourists to visit. According to reports from the United Nations, the number of international visitors to Ukraine has plummeted, with a 97% decline compared to pre-conflict levels. Safety concerns, coupled with the ongoing conflict, have created a major barrier for both domestic and international tourists. As the war remains unresolved, the likelihood of a tourism rebound in Ukraine in 2025 remains low, with little prospect for recovery in the near future.
Russia’s Travel Slowdown
Russia’s tourism industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in 2025. Sanctions, travel restrictions, and financial transaction limitations have made travel to Russia difficult. According to a report by the European Council, these sanctions have reduced international tourist arrivals to Russia by nearly 60% in 2024 compared to 2023. Visa issues and flight restrictions have made it nearly impossible for many Western tourists to visit the country. Additionally, Russia’s isolation from the global economy and political tensions with other nations have further compounded the situation. With few opportunities for international tourists to visit, Russia’s tourism sector continues to face considerable challenges, with limited potential for recovery.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania’s Triple Trouble
The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are dealing with a “triple trouble” situation in 2025. The proximity to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the ban on Russian tourists, and the reduction in cruise tourism have all contributed to a decline in visitors to these countries. According to Statistics Estonia, the number of tourists in Estonia dropped by 9% in March 2025 compared to the previous year. Latvia and Lithuania have similarly seen a decline in tourism, particularly from Russia. Despite these challenges, Estonia has shown some resilience, focusing its marketing efforts on Scandinavian and Western European markets to offset the loss of visitors from Russia. However, the overall impact on tourism in the Baltic states remains negative.
Cyprus, Bulgaria, Montenegro’s Russian Tourist Decline
Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Montenegro, once popular with Russian tourists, are seeing a significant decline in tourism from this key market. According to the Cyprus Tourism Organization, the number of Russian visitors to Cyprus dropped by 70% in 2024. Similarly, Montenegro and Bulgaria have also experienced a sharp decline in Russian tourist numbers due to sanctions and travel restrictions. The loss of this market has led to significant challenges for these countries, which were heavily reliant on Russian tourism. However, Montenegro has managed to attract visitors from new markets, particularly from Western Europe, partially offsetting the decline in Russian visitors.
Spain, Italy, Greece, Netherlands’s Breaking Backlash
Countries like Spain, Italy, Greece and the Netherlands are facing growing backlash against overtourism. In 2024, these countries saw increasing protests from local communities, especially in major tourist hubs like Barcelona, Rome, and Amsterdam. According to the European Commission, tourism in Spain was down by 3% in popular areas like Barcelona due to overcrowding and rising living costs. Local governments have responded with new policies, including tourist taxes, caps on visitor numbers, and restrictions on short-term rentals. These measures are aimed at managing the negative impacts of mass tourism, but they may also deter tourists, leading to a decline in visits to certain regions.
European Economic Border
The broader European economic environment in 2025 has created what can be termed the “European Economic Border Wall.” Rising inflation, higher prices for flights, accommodation, and everyday expenses have made Europe a more expensive destination. According to Eurostat, travel prices across the EU increased by 6% in 2024, significantly impacting tourism. Visitors from key markets like the US, Canada, and Japan are showing less interest in European travel due to these rising costs. Inflation and the cost-of-living crisis have also reduced domestic tourism within Europe, as locals are spending less on leisure activities. These economic factors are contributing to the overall decline in tourism across the continent.
Why the Numbers Are Unstable
Several key factors are causing instability in tourism numbers across Europe. Brexit-related changes, such as stricter visa requirements for EU citizens, have made travel to the UK more complex and less attractive. Geopolitical tensions, especially in Eastern Europe, have further reduced international travel to countries like Ukraine and Russia. In addition, the rising cost of living and inflation have made Europe a more expensive destination, affecting both domestic and international travel. These economic, political, and logistical challenges are creating fluctuating trends in tourism, resulting in an unpredictable and unstable landscape for the industry.
European Tourism in 2022
In 2022, European tourism began its recovery from the pandemic, with many countries reporting an uptick in visitor numbers. According to Eurostat, 2022 saw a 50% increase in international arrivals compared to 2021, but still fell short of pre-pandemic levels. Southern European countries like Spain and Italy were particularly popular, with tourist numbers rising sharply in coastal regions. However, the recovery was uneven, with countries in Eastern Europe experiencing slower growth due to ongoing political instability and the war in Ukraine. Overall, 2022 marked a positive, though incomplete, rebound for the European tourism industry.
European Tourism in 2023
By 2023, European tourism was on a stronger recovery path, with many countries reporting a return to near-pre-pandemic levels of visitor numbers. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), Europe saw a 7% increase in tourist arrivals in 2023. Southern Europe, particularly Greece, Spain, and Portugal, saw continued growth in visitors, while countries in Eastern Europe, such as Poland and Hungary, struggled with geopolitical uncertainties. The overall recovery was hampered by rising travel costs and inflation, which affected tourists’ spending power. Despite these challenges, European tourism in 2023 continued to recover, albeit at a slower pace.
European Tourism in 2024
In 2024, European tourism experienced continued growth in certain regions, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany. According to the European Commission, international arrivals to the EU were up by 5% in 2024. However, overtourism became a growing issue in countries like Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands. Local protests and policy changes, including tourist taxes and visitor caps, were implemented to manage overcrowding. Countries like Montenegro and Croatia showed significant growth, particularly in visitors from Western Europe, while others, such as Russia and Ukraine, saw declines due to geopolitical tensions.
European Tourism in 2025 (Till Now)
As of 2025, European tourism is showing mixed results. Some countries, like Scotland, have experienced strong growth, while others, like Ukraine and Russia, continue to see declines. The tourism outlook for the rest of 2025 remains uncertain due to economic pressures, rising costs, and geopolitical instability. According to VisitBritain, the UK is expecting 43.4 million visitors in 2025, a 5% increase from 2024. However, real-term spending per visitor is expected to remain low, reflecting the broader challenges facing the industry.
The Importance of Tourism Amid Europe
Tourism remains a vital part of Europe’s economy, providing jobs, generating revenue, and supporting local economies. According to the WTTC, tourism accounts for 10.4% of Europe’s GDP, employing over 27 million people. Despite the challenges facing the industry in 2025, tourism remains essential for many countries. Even as some regions experience declines, the industry continues to play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability and providing opportunities for growth, especially in emerging markets like Montenegro and Croatia.
Visitor Decline Patterns
The decline in visitors is not uniform across Europe. According to recent data from Eurostat, countries affected by political instability, such as Ukraine and Russia, are experiencing significant drops in tourist numbers, with Ukraine’s tourism down by 97% since the onset of the conflict. Meanwhile, other countries dealing with overtourism or rising costs, like Spain and Italy, are seeing slower declines. The pattern of tourism decline is closely tied to both external factors, such as geopolitical tensions, and internal factors, including local policies aimed at controlling overcrowding and rising living costs.YearQuarterTourist Arrivals (Millions)Growth/Decline (+/-)Key Reasons for Change2022Q189.4+50%Recovery from pandemic lockdowns, rise in domestic travel, and easing of travel restrictions.Q2116.7+60%Strong summer season recovery, particularly in Southern Europe (Spain, Italy).Q3142.5+45%Continued strong travel during the summer months, aided by pent-up demand post-pandemic.Q4105.0+35%Slower recovery in winter due to economic concerns and the onset of higher travel costs.2023Q192.3+3%Continued recovery, but rising inflation and cost-of-living pressures affect affordability.Q2121.0+4%Increased travel from the U.S. and Asia post-pandemic, offset by higher costs.Q3148.0+4%Strong summer, with many destinations showing near pre-pandemic levels of tourism.Q4110.2+5%Slower winter tourism due to rising energy prices and travel restrictions in some areas.2024Q197.1+5%Steady recovery from winter slowdown, with increased long-haul arrivals from North America and Asia.Q2124.5+3%Ongoing growth in Southern European countries, but overtourism concerns arise in popular cities.Q3150.8+2%Peak summer tourism in major tourist hotspots (France, Spain), with significant local backlash over overcrowding.Q4113.6+3%Increased tourism in regions like Eastern Europe, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.2025 (Till Now)Q189.4-0.5%Continued geopolitical instability, rising costs of living, and inflation reduce domestic and international travel.Q2118.5+1.5%Modest growth in summer months, supported by favorable exchange rates but hindered by economic pressures.Q3146.3-1%Slight decline due to economic concerns, high travel costs, and a decrease in Russian tourism.Q4110.0-2%Decline in winter tourism as higher travel costs, energy inflation, and uncertain geopolitical conditions weigh heavily.
Why Spending Fell Despite More Visitors
Despite an increase in visitor numbers in some regions, spending has fallen due to rising costs. According to a 2025 report from the European Commission, tourist spending across the EU was up by 2.5% in nominal terms but fell in real terms due to inflation. Higher accommodation costs, rising flight prices, and additional tourist taxes have all contributed to a reduction in spending per visitor. Tourists are spending less on activities and dining, which has impacted local economies, particularly in expensive cities like London and Paris.
Strategies for Recovery
To recover, European countries must diversify their tourism markets, promote off-season travel, and manage overtourism through regulation. According to a report by the European Commission, destinations must adapt to changing global travel habits, including greater demand for sustainable and eco-friendly options. Countries should also focus on improving the visitor experience, enhancing accessibility, and leveraging digital marketing to attract new markets. Strategic investments in infrastructure and sustainability initiatives will be key to ensuring long-term growth.
Outlook for the Rest of 2025
The outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains uncertain. While some regions, such as Scotland, continue to experience growth, others are still struggling with declines. The overall tourism recovery in Europe will depend on factors such as global economic conditions, geopolitical stability, and the effectiveness of local policies in managing overtourism. According to Eurostat, growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with some regions seeing a decline in visitors due to rising costs and ongoing political uncertainties. However, continued recovery in certain markets is still anticipated, with Europe expected to remain a key destination for international tourists.
