Submission Statement: As the US and Russia prepare for talks in Anchorage, Europe is nervous about the potential outcome, fearing a deal that may come at its expense. Europe’s reliance on US power and its inability to imagine a security architecture without the US as its fundamental pillar has led to a lack of decisive action, leaving Ukraine’s future and its own security vulnerable to the whims of the US-Russia relationship. To reverse this trajectory, Europe must commit to reducing its dependence on US decision-making and build credible deterrence against Moscow.
At this point we might be headed toward a future where the US can no longer be trusted to be in NATO for similar reasons to Hungary.
Europe had at least 2 years to handle the situation. We could argue that a war until Putin is dead would be the best outcome for Europe (Russia cannot escape Ukraine and attack other parts) to then deal with a “better” alternative but that’s not something you want to say out loud. If Trump would do nothing and Ukraine would just keep fighting (which itself is becoming harder and harder) Europe would imo be kinda happy.
Everyone knows we need a deal and Russia would get something out of it. Be it 1/3 of Ukraine, NATO promises, getting away without payments to rebuild and so on, the West and Ukraine would need to give Putin/Russia something to stop the war. Today Mark Rutte is ready to accept such terms but half of the EU and NATO are still living in their own dream world. Where Putin would just stop, accept his loss and leave Ukraine completely. A scenario that Putin would not even survive.
Europe needs the US for ISTAR stuff for the next 10-20 years at a minimum. A “clean break” is not possible right now because Europe needs to build their own infrastructure and train people. Europa can live without US payments to Ukraine but not without US knowledge, intelligence and some specific weapons.
I don’t feel a lot of sympathy for Europeans.
[Since George Bush was in office,](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/jun/07/uselections2000.usa), America has been asking Europeans to take defense spending seriously so that the US could pivot towards China. And the response from Europe has been either empty promises, or USA being arrogantly scolded by Europe as “world police”.
The wake up call was 2014. The knock on the door was 2016. The slap in the face was 2022. Europe has had years to figure this out and take initiate. Instead what we got was Germany laughing at Trump when he told them they shouldn’t be reliant on Russian gas; Macron sucking up to China and stating that Taiwan isn’t Europes problem; Italy saying they don’t want to help deal with the houthis; Spain saying they are unwilling to increase their defense budget to 3%.
Europeans want all the benefits of collective defense without any of the effort. Now they find themselves sidelined in a proxy war on their own continent because they are unable to influence its outcome. This is the chickens coming home to roost.
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Submission Statement: As the US and Russia prepare for talks in Anchorage, Europe is nervous about the potential outcome, fearing a deal that may come at its expense. Europe’s reliance on US power and its inability to imagine a security architecture without the US as its fundamental pillar has led to a lack of decisive action, leaving Ukraine’s future and its own security vulnerable to the whims of the US-Russia relationship. To reverse this trajectory, Europe must commit to reducing its dependence on US decision-making and build credible deterrence against Moscow.
At this point we might be headed toward a future where the US can no longer be trusted to be in NATO for similar reasons to Hungary.
Europe had at least 2 years to handle the situation. We could argue that a war until Putin is dead would be the best outcome for Europe (Russia cannot escape Ukraine and attack other parts) to then deal with a “better” alternative but that’s not something you want to say out loud. If Trump would do nothing and Ukraine would just keep fighting (which itself is becoming harder and harder) Europe would imo be kinda happy.
Everyone knows we need a deal and Russia would get something out of it. Be it 1/3 of Ukraine, NATO promises, getting away without payments to rebuild and so on, the West and Ukraine would need to give Putin/Russia something to stop the war. Today Mark Rutte is ready to accept such terms but half of the EU and NATO are still living in their own dream world. Where Putin would just stop, accept his loss and leave Ukraine completely. A scenario that Putin would not even survive.
Europe needs the US for ISTAR stuff for the next 10-20 years at a minimum. A “clean break” is not possible right now because Europe needs to build their own infrastructure and train people. Europa can live without US payments to Ukraine but not without US knowledge, intelligence and some specific weapons.
I don’t feel a lot of sympathy for Europeans.
[Since George Bush was in office,](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/jun/07/uselections2000.usa), America has been asking Europeans to take defense spending seriously so that the US could pivot towards China. And the response from Europe has been either empty promises, or USA being arrogantly scolded by Europe as “world police”.
The wake up call was 2014. The knock on the door was 2016. The slap in the face was 2022. Europe has had years to figure this out and take initiate. Instead what we got was Germany laughing at Trump when he told them they shouldn’t be reliant on Russian gas; Macron sucking up to China and stating that Taiwan isn’t Europes problem; Italy saying they don’t want to help deal with the houthis; Spain saying they are unwilling to increase their defense budget to 3%.
Europeans want all the benefits of collective defense without any of the effort. Now they find themselves sidelined in a proxy war on their own continent because they are unable to influence its outcome. This is the chickens coming home to roost.
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