Social Security recipients’ monthly checks will likely be higher next year with the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, but the increase may not cover the full effects of rising inflation, a leading senior advocacy group says.
According to the latest estimate from The Senior Citizens League, inflation data from July marks the sixth consecutive month of higher COLA predictions for next year.
Social Security COLA 2026
What they’re saying:
“With the COLA announcement around the corner, seniors across America are holding their breath,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement. “While a higher COLA would be welcome because their monthly benefits will increase, many will be disappointed … Many seniors believe the COLA does not actually capture the inflation they experience.”
FILE – Blank Social Security checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility February 11, 2005 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by William Thomas Cain/Getty Images)
By the numbers:
The Senior Citizens League expects a 2.7% COLA for Social Security recipients in 2026. That’s .2 percentage points more than the COLA for 2025.
Why you should care:
TSCL’s COLA prediction model has consistently increased this year, “pointing to risks for resurgent inflation.”
RELATED: Tax changes will make Social Security go insolvent sooner than previous estimate
Timeline:
The official Social Security COLA will be announced in October.
How is COLA calculated?
The Social Security Administration adjusts monthly benefits every year to reflect increases in inflation. If there’s higher inflation, the monthly benefit is higher as well.
The 2026 COLA is calculated by taking the average inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), for July, August and September of 2025.
Seniors facing challenges
According to TSCL’s 2025 Lifestyle Report, an estimated 11.2 million seniors have to travel at least 30 minutes for health care services, while 18.4 million have to travel at least a half hour for entertainment. This leads to less satisfaction in their daily lives, advocates say.
The advocacy group found that lack of public transit access could be a big part of the problem: 29% of seniors don’t have access to public transportation, and 26% don’t know if it’s available. About a fourth of seniors have access to free or subsidized public transit.
“American seniors’ lack of access to basic amenities in their communities is a major challenge,” Benton said. “Our research shows a statistically significant connection between convenient access to health care and entertainment services and seniors who are more satisfied with their current lives. Seniors with free or subsidized access to public transport also report higher life satisfaction.”
Social Security turns 90
The latest COLA news comes as President Donald Trump plans to honor the 90th anniversary of the Social Security Act by issuing a proclamation touting his administration’s reported improvements to the program.
The backstory:
The Social Security Act was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935, during the Great Depression. The bill was aimed at creating a federal safety net to help Americans with unemployment, illness, disability, death and old-age.
Today, the program provides benefits to almost 69 million Americans monthly. It’s a major source of income for people over 65 and is popular across the country and political lines.
Threats to Social Security
Dig deeper:
Trump’s Social Security proclamation will call the Social Security Act a “monumental legislative achievement,” but the program faces a looming shortfall in money to pay full benefits.
Since Trump took office the program has faced more tumult. Agency staffing has been slashed. Unions and advocacy groups concerned about sharing sensitive information have sued. Trump administration officials including the president for months falsely claimed millions of dead people were receiving Social Security benefits. Former top adviser Elon Musk called the program a potential “Ponzi scheme.”
The so-called go-broke date — or the date at which Social Security will no longer have enough funds to pay full benefits — has been moved up to 2034, instead of last year’s estimate of 2035. After that point, Social Security would only be able to pay 81% of benefits, according to an annual report released in June. The earlier date came as new legislation affecting Social Security benefits have contributed to earlier projected depletion dates, the report concluded.
Republicans’ new tax legislation signed into law in July will accelerate the insolvency of Social Security, said Brendan Duke at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The Social Security Fairness Act, signed into law by former President Joe Biden and enacted in January, also had an impact. It repealed the Windfall Elimination and Government Pension Offset provisions, increasing Social Security benefit levels for former public workers.
“They haven’t laid out an idea to fix it yet,” Duke told The Associated Press.
The Source: This report includes information from The Senior Citizens League, FOX Business, The Associated Press and previous LiveNow from FOX reporting.