As the Roman summer nears its end and the pope takes a final summer weekend at Castel Gandolfo, speculation is mounting about possible changes in the Vatican curia.
Curial heads serve on five-year terms, with the exception of the secretary of state.
Still, Pope Leo could replace Vatican department heads at any time — or, as Pope Francis did with most curial heads after his 2013 election, let them serve until their terms expire or they reach retirement age.
For Leo, there is likely some expectation to make appointments soon: several prefects are past retirement age, and one senior curial position – the Dicastery of Bishops, which used to be led by Pope Leo himself – is vacant.
Who might leave the curia soon and who might replace them?
Two senior curial officials are widely expected to leave their posts, and another is seen as meriting a promotion.
Archbishops Edgar Peña Parra and Paul Gallagher head the two main sections of the Secretariat of State — the section for general affairs, which handles operations, and the section relations with states.
Traditionally, officials in those roles rarely serve much longer than a single term. But Peña Parra has been in his post since 2018, and Gallagher since 2014.
Peña Parra has been rumored to be set for a move to a high-level nunciature, most likely Spain. But in Spain, signs indicate that Archbishop Piero Pioppo might be the preferred Vatican’s choice to represent the pope in Madrid, which means that Peña Parra could end up staying in Rome.
Gallagher, too, is generally well-regarded among Vatican leaders, and has been seen as likely to be given eventually a dicastery to oversee.
The third in the mix is Archbishop Fortunatus Nwachukwu of Nigeria, a section secretary at the Dicastery for Evangelization.
Nwachukwu was the Vatican’s head of protocol between 2007 and 2012, when he became nuncio to Nicaragua. In 2017 he left Nicaragua to become nuncio to most of the English-speaking Caribbean islands, along with Guyana, Suriname, and Belize. In 2021, he became permanent observer of the Holy See to the UN, in Geneva, and in 2023, he was appointed to his current post.
The Vatican hasn’t had an African in a senior curial role since Cardinal Peter Turkson left the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development in 2022. As the most senior African member of the curia and widely respected in Vatican circles, Nwachukwu could be poised for a promotion.
Each of those prelates are widely considered candidates for senior curial positions — especially for leading the Dicastery for the Causes of the Saints, the Dicastery for the Laity, Family and Life, and the Dicastery for Integral Human Development.
The only current curial vacancy is also the most closely watched, because it used to be the pope’s job. And while Pope Leo may decide to keep the rest of the curia intact for now, he must soon appoint a new prefect to head the Dicastery for Bishops.
Some might expect that the most logical pick is the dicastery’s secretary, Archbishop Ilson de Jesus Montanari, who was rumored to be Francis’ preferred choice before appointing then-Bishop Prevost for the position.
But Montanari was said to have refused the appointment, preferring instead an episcopal appointment in his native Brazil. If that’s still the case, Montanari’s timing has never been better, as the archbishops of the country’s two largest sees, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, are past retirement age.
Further, Montanari is not known to have been an especially trusted collaborator of Pope Leo XIV himself, and has not always enjoyed the confidence of apostolic nuncios in the episcopal appointment process. That might make him an unlikely candidate.
But another name rumored for the post is Bishop Luis Marín de San Martín, OSA undersecretary of the Synod of Bishops, who is an Augustinian and personally close to Pope Leo, and widely thought to be bound for a senior curial appointment.
de San Martín has not had any experience as a diocesan bishop, which might make his appointment seem unlikely.
Another name rumored for the Dicastery for Bishops has been Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.
While the extent of their personal relationship is unknown, the pope may be inclined to reward his leadership within the College of Cardinals, as he was widely considered one of the leading candidates entering this year’s conclave.
Moreover, as pro-prefect of the Section for the First Evangelization of the Dicastery of Evangelization, Tagle is already in charge of the appointment of bishops in mission territories, and in some dioceses in Latin America, Asia, Oceania, and Africa.
On the other hand, Tagle has suffered criticism over his administrative chops, which might give Pope Leo pause in handing over his own former department.
Which could leave open a path for another possible candidate: Cardinal Joseph Tobin.
During their time as superiors of the Augustinians and Redemptorists, respectively, Tobin and Prevost became personal friends, and Tobin is widely rumored to have already taken up in recent months some special projects in the name of Pope Leo.
Cardinal Arthur Roche turned 75 in March, and his five-year term expires in less than a year, making his replacement likely in the near future.
One of the most contentious questions facing Pope Leo in the early stages of his pontificate is how he will handle Traditionis custodes, Francis’ motu proprio limiting access to the Traditional Latin Mass. The choice of Roche’s successor will be closely watched for signs of the pope’s liturgical orientation.
Two continuity candidates stand out.
Archbishop Vittorio Viola, OFM, succeeded Roche as secretary of the DDW and is considered to be one of the main drafters of Traditionis custodes.
And Archbishop Claudio Maniago, archbishop of Catanzaro-Squillace, has led the Italian bishops’ liturgy programs since 2015, has been a member of the dicastery since 2016, and was tasked by Pope Francis with reforming the dicastery after Cardinal Robert Sarah’s retirement in 2021.
But there are fewer candidates within the dicastery who would signal a different approach.
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Budapest, a member of the dicastery, could be the prototype for a transitional term into a different kind of liturgical vision, namely, a cardinal with a reputation for liturgical and theological conservatism, who is not himself considered a traditionalist. Erdo would likely be seen as not necessarily inclined to immediately push for the overturn of Traditiones custodes, but instead for a more flexible approach to its application.
While the TLM debate draws much of the attention in the West, other liturgical issues may have broader global impact.
During Francis’ pontificate, the DDW approved adaptations of liturgical rubrics for certain ethnic groups in the Diocese of San Cristóbal de las Casas in southern Mexico, while a similar adaptation was approved for a three-year period for communities in the Amazon region in South America.
Similar requests from other indigenous communities around the world have also been expected.
If the pope believes that liturgical inculturation is an even more significant issue than the TLM at a global scale, he could altogether skip appointing a prefect with strong opinions on the TLM, but with significant experience with liturgical inculturation.
One name possibly fitting that profile is Cardinal Jaime Spengler, OFM.
Spengler is the president of both the Brazilian bishops’ conference and the Council of Latin American Bishops’ Conferences, known as CELAM, and has been a member of the DDW since June 2022.
While Spengler has been regarded in some corners as theologically progressive on liturgy, observers in Brazil say the cardinal is more moderate than he was often painted during the Francis pontificate.
During the Synod on the Amazon region, Spengler supported the institution of an Amazon rite, though in a 2024 interview with The Pillar, Spengler said that “there is a single rite in the [Latin] Church: The Roman rite.”
“This rite needs to be and is called to be adapted to the different cultural realities… It’s not a question of bringing in a rite from outside to make reality adapt to it. Moreover, how many cultures are there in that reality?… What are the anthropologies, so to speak, that underlie all these cultures and languages? Keeping all this in mind is not a simple job.”
Dicastery for Promoting Christian Unity
Cardinal Kurt Koch is the only man in the world who can say he’s led the same curial department during the last three pontificates. But Koch is 75 ,and his most recent five-year term expired in July, making a change possible soon.
Therefore, a successor might come sooner rather than later.
As usual, a potential successor would be the dicastery’s secretary, Archbishop Flavio Pace.
Pace worked since 2012 in the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches, becoming its undersecretary in 2020 before being appointed to his current post on February 23, 2024. However, at 48-years-old, Pace would be considered slightly too young for such a role.
If Pope Leo looks outside the Vatican, possibilities include Archbishop Bertram Meier of Augsburg, a prominent critic of the German “synodal way” who became a dicastery member in 2023. His outspoken stance has raised his profile in Rome.
Two other interesting possibilities would be Bishop Raimo Goyarrola of Helsinki, Archbishop Bernard Longley of Birmingham.
Goyarrola has been the Bishop of Helsinki since 2023 but had led the ecumenical dialogue with the Finnish Lutheran Church for more than a decade — and the Vatican appointed him in April to lead the Church’s dialogue with the Lutheran World Federation.
Goyarrola is widely perceived as a doctrinally orthodox bishop who has been able to maintain an open and friendly channel of dialogue with Lutheran leaders despite theological differences, especially on moral issues.
Longley has a similar pedigree but with more episcopal experience, as he’s been the bishop of Birmingham since 2009.
Longley has significant experience in ecumenical matters, serving as co-chairman of the Anglican Roman Catholic International Commission, and moderator of the steering committee of Churches Together in Britain and Ireland.
In June, Pope Leo XIV named him a member of the Vatican’s Dicastery for Promoting Christian Unity and, in July, a member of the Dicastery for Interreligious Dialogue.
If it weren’t for his age —75 — Cardinal Anders Arborelius of Stockholm might also seem a natural choice for the post.
Arborelius is a convert to the Catholic faith, the first Swede in centuries to be named a bishop, and is active in ecumenical conversations and initiatives across Europe. He is a member of the ecumenical dicastery at the Vatican, along with the dicasteries for clergy and for Eastern Catholic Churches.
Cardinal Michael Czerny, SJ, a self-identified Pillar reader in a good way, is also the oldest prefect of the Roman curia at 79-years-old, four years over retirement age.
When Pope Francis named Cardinal Fabio Baggio in October 2024, many assumed he was the natural successor to Czerny, as he was already serving as the undersecretary for the migrants and refugees section of the dicastery.
But Pope Leo could chart a different course by appointing the dicastery’s secretary, Sr. Alessandra Smerili, FMA, as its prefect, which would follow Francis’ choice to allow non-clergy to serve as prefects.
An interesting non-curial possibility could be Cardinal Domenico Battaglia of Naples.
As a diocesan bishop, Battaglia was known for his ministry as a “street priest,” with a particular personal pastoral outreach to youth and those affected by drug addiction, earning him the nickname the “Bergoglio of Southern Italy” in some corners of the Italian press. He has also called to make Naples a “safe port” for migrants, echoing one of the main concerns of Francis’ pontificate and Czerny as prefect.
Cardinal Marcello Semeraro is already 75 and his five-year term is set to expire in October 2025, so it could become one of the first major curial changes in Pope Leo’s pontificate.
As usual, the dicastery’s secretary, Archbishop Fabio Fabene, is a strong candidate to succeed Semeraro.
Fabene has served as the dicastery’s secretary since 2021. Before that, he had been the under-secretary of the Synod of Bishops between 2014 and 2021, and the head of office of the then-Congregation of Bishops between 2010 and 2014.
Nevertheless, nearly every recent prefect of the dicastery but Semeraro had been a longstanding member of the Roman curia.
Thus, the post has historically gone to long-serving curial officials as a gesture of appreciation or as a promoveatur ut amoveatur, a promotion intended to move someone to a different position.
Namely, it would be the kind of curial role in which Gallagher, Peña Parra or Nwachukwu would traditionally be appointed.
Cardinal Kevin Farrell is already 77 years old and his term as prefect of the Vatican’s “mega-dicastery” is set to expire in a year — he might well be replaced sometime soon both in his post as prefect and as cardinal camerlengo.
Though it has a very broad portfolio, the Dicastery for Laity, Family and Life is not considered one of the “core” dicasteries of the Roman curia, which might also make it an attractive position for Gallagher, Peña Parra, or Nwachukwu.
For that reason, the dicastery might also be considered for a promoveatur ut amoveatur for a senior curial official Pope Leo XIV wants to reassign discreetly, which is what many consider could happen with Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith.
However, the dicastery’s secretary is Gleison de Paula Souza, a Brazilian layman. If Pope Leo wishes to advance Praedicate Evangelium’s reform allowing lay prefects, de Paula Souza could be seen as a natural choice.