Explore AGL Energy’s Fair Values from the Community and select yours

It’s been a sad week for AGL Energy Limited (ASX:AGL), who’ve watched their investment drop 14% to AU$8.71 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Revenues of AU$14b beat expectations by 4.2%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of AU$0.15 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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ASX:AGL Earnings and Revenue Growth August 15th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, AGL Energy’s ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be AU$14.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. AGL Energy is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of AU$0.87 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$14.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.04 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

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The average price target fell 8.3% to AU$11.01, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on AGL Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$12.00 and the most bearish at AU$9.68 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.0% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.2% per year. It’s pretty clear that AGL Energy’s revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

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