With Russia focused on Ukraine, Washington is stepping up its efforts to ensure that Moscow cannot re-establish itself so easily in its previously vital strategic Middle East and North Africa strongholds of Syria and Libya. The U.S. and Great Britain were instrumental in the removal from power of longtime Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and in the similar ousting of Syria’s long-term president Bashar al-Assad in 2024. Over the 23 years, Washington and London appear to have learned that quickly putting into place a plan to ensure economic health of the country involved in an effective coup d’etat is a good idea from every angle. It minimises the chances of cultural and economic destruction wrought by unfettered migration of affected populations into Europe, it secures valuable energy rights for those countries helping to shape the new regime, and it prevents chief geopolitical rivals Russia and China from adding to their global sphere of influence. It is also crucial to note that major oil and gas projects legally entitle the international companies undertaking them to safeguard these assets in a foreign country by whatever security means they think appropriate, as agreed with the host nation. Given all this, the last few weeks have seen major moves by the U.S. and Great Britain to make sure that this time around the strategic advantage that they have engineered is both countries is not lost.

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For Syria, the beginning of July saw the U.S. remove Syria’s Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources from its sanctions list, together with the country’s General Authority for Maritime Transport, and its two main refineries too. These actions augmented the removal of a broad range of sanctions on the country just a day earlier, including those preventing the importation of Syrian oil and oil products into the U.S. Together, the lifting of these sanctions are aimed at opening the way for the country to realise the still high potential of its oil and gas sector so that it can build a robust economy that is, according to the sanctions removal order: “stable, unified and at peace with itself and its neighbors”. In this context it is apposite to note that before Syria’s civil war began in March 2011 as part of the wider Arab Spring movement, it was a major oil producer, with output of around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from proved reserves of 2.5 billion barrels. Prior to that – before the recovery rate started to decline due to a lack of enhanced oil recovery techniques being employed at the major fields — it had been producing nearly 600,000 bpd. Europe imported over US$3 billion of oil per year from Syria up to the beginning of 2011, and many European refineries were configured to process the heavy, sour ‘Souedie’ crude oil that makes up much of Syria’s output, with the remainder being the sweet and lighter ‘Syrian Light’ grade. Most of this – some 150,000-bpd combined – went to Germany, Italy, and France, from one of Syria’s three Mediterranean export terminals: Banias, Tartus, and Latakia.

As an adjunct to this, a multitude of international oil companies were operating in Syria’s energy sector, including Great Britain’s Shell, Petrofac and Gulfsands Petroleum, France’s then-Total, the China National Petroleum Corporation, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp, Canada’s Suncor Energy, and Russia’s Tatneft and Stroytransgaz. Russia was quick to expand its on-the-ground presence in the country’s oil and gas sector as an adjunct to its launching full military support for al-Assad’s regime from 30 September 2015, at the Syrian president’s request, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Heavy investment especially in the gas sector, allowed Moscow to leverage its influence across the country to such a degree that it became the Kremlin’s key Middle Eastern outpost, with several militarily vital bases. These included the naval base at Tartus (Russia’s only Mediterranean port), the air force base at Khmeimim, and the listening station just outside Latakia). However, following the 30 June and 1 July removal of sanctions on Syria by the U.S., American firms including Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy, and Argent LNG are working to revitalise the country’s oil, gas and power sector, according to a senior source working in the European Union’s security complex. “They will be taking the lead here, [in Syria] alongside local [Middle Eastern] firms focusing on power generation, with British and European firms to step in after that initial work has been done,” he exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “The initial focus [for the U.S.] will be on key oil-producing areas west of the Euphrates currently under control of the new Syrian government,” he added.

It is a similar story for Libya, although British firms have adopted the lead role here in recent weeks. Before 2011 — when the Arab Spring movement led to the removal of its own leader, Gaddafi — Libya had easily been able to produce around 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of mostly high-quality light, sweet crude oil. Production had also been on a rising production trend at that point, up from about 1.4 million bpd in 2000. Although this output level was well below the peak levels of more than 3 million bpd achieved in the late 1960s, its National Oil Corporation (NOC) had plans in place before 2011 to roll out enhanced oil recovery techniques to increase crude oil production at maturing oil fields. There had also been plenty of interest from a slew of international oil companies to be involved in expanding production on existing fields and exploring new opportunities in oil and gas (after all, Libya still has 48 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves – the largest in Africa). Russia was one such country, although the more chaotic conditions across the country resulting from fragmented political leadership meant Moscow was less able to cement firm control over it. Nonetheless, September 2023 saw General Khalifa Haftar – commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) – travel to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose Wagner mercenary soldiers provide support for LNA forces in Libya. Further talks between Haftar and senior Russian political and military figures have occurred at several points since then, according to the E.U. security source. As an adjunct to this, last year saw the arrest of Saddam Haftar — General Haftar’s son — at Naples airport after his name appeared on an E.U. database over an arrest warrant issued in Spain for alleged weapons smuggling. This followed comments from former U.N. special envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, that the country was becoming a mafia state dominated by gangs involved in smuggling operations, especially for arms.

That said, earlier this year saw British oil giants BP and Shell sign a range of agreements with Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC) aimed at boosting the country’s oil and gas output recovery. BP said on 8 July that it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to evaluate options for redeveloping the giant Sarir and Messla onshore fields in the Sirte basin, and to assess potential unconventional oil and gas development. The firm’s executive vice president for gas and low carbon, William Lin, stated that the agreement, “reflects our strong interest in deepening our partnership with NOC and supporting the future of Libya’s energy sector.” In the meantime, Shell is focused on exploring development possibilities for the Atshan oil field and other NOC-owned assets. Shortly afterwards during a visit to Tripoli by U.S. President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, a cooperation agreement was signed between Mellitah Oil and Gas (a joint venture between the NOC and Italy’s Eni), and U.S. construction consulting firm Hill International to manage a project which aims to boost Libya’s gas output. More specifically, it involves the development from 2026 of two gas fields located offshore Libya with combined gas reach 750 million cubic feet per day. Perhaps the biggest sign of the U.S.’s high hopes for a new Libya was the announcement earlier this month that supermajor ExxonMobil had signed an MoU with the NOC to identify hydrocarbon resources in four offshore blocks located off Libya’s northwest coast and its Sirte Basin. All of these on the-ground-developments in Libya and Syria will be very hard for Russia or China to undermine.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

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