According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 22 July and 5 August), activity in July continued to grow significantly in industry and construction, and more moderately in market services. In August, business leaders expect activity to remain on the rise in manufacturing and construction and to change little in services, but these expectations should be interpreted with greater caution this month due to the summer holidays. Order books are deemed to be slightly less depleted in industry, with the exception of aeronautics, and in construction, while remaining relatively weak.
Our monthly uncertainty indicator, based on a textual analysis of the comments made by the businesses surveyed, continued to decline in all three sectors, and more significantly in construction. It remained significantly higher in industry than in services and construction, reflecting the former sector’s greater exposure to international markets, particularly to US pricing policy.
Business leaders in the agri-food (wine industry), wood-paperprinting, chemicals, and capital goods sectors mentioned this more specifically.
Selling prices were deemed unchanged overall in all three sectors. Supply difficulties remained low overall, except in the aeronautics and automotive industries. Recruitment difficulties affected 18% of businesses, down one percentage point from last month.
Based on the survey results, together with other indicators, we estimate that GDP should continue to grow in the third quarter at a pace similar to that of the previous quarter (+0.3% according to INSEE’s initial estimate).