According to forecasts by the international rating agency Fitch Ratings, most Ukrainian refugees living in Poland are expected to stay there, even if Ukraine reaches a ceasefire agreement with Russia. Since 2022, about one million Ukrainian refugees have relocated to Poland, helping to boost the labor market and stimulate economic growth in the country.
“We are almost certain that a large percentage of these people will actually stay in Poland and contribute to the Polish labor market and GDP growth, as well as, of course, to other macroeconomic and fiscal variables,” Fitch analysts note.
Experts predict Poland’s economic growth at 3% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027. The Polish government expects annual growth of 3.4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively. The government hopes that this economic growth will help reduce a bloated budget deficit, which last year amounted to 6.6% of GDP. Poland previously pledged to cut the deficit to below 3% by 2028.