October 2025 WTI NYMEX futures moved into the “prompt” month this week as September settled. Prices are trading below the 20-day Moving Average but above the 8- and 10-day MAs.

Volume is below the recent average at 160,000. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), a momentum indicator, is in neutral territory at 50. Resistance is now pegged at $64.17 (20-day MA) while near-term critical Support is $63.50 (the next key level on the downside). The 8-day MA “crossing over” the 13-day MA is bullish.

Looking ahead

While the Russia-Ukraine war seemed to take center stage this week, traders have to still monitor the Israel/Hamas situation along with US/Iran. As a result, geopolitical risk will remain a factor. To what extent that impacts prices will depend on the progress or lack of progress, in all of these situations.

Next month will not only bring the end to the summer driving/vacation season but will also mark the return of 500,000 b/d of OPEC+ crude supply.

A new tropical wave 100 miles ENE of the Leeward Islands bears watching according to the National Hurricane Center with further development expected over the weekend and into next week as we enter the peak of hurricane season in September.

Natural gas, fundamental analysis

Despite the occasional rally, Henry Hub NYMEX Natural Gas Futures have been in a steady 2-month downtrend. Prices hit $4.15/MMbtu on June 23, 2025, and are currently at their lowest point since at $$2.70/MMbtu.

Above-average storage volumes and a cooler start to September continue to pressure prices. The week’s High was $2.92 /MMbtu on Monday with the week’s Low of $2.698 on Friday.

Supply last week was +0.5 bcfd to 112.6 bcfd vs. 112.1 the prior week. Demand was -1.3 bcfd to 106.1 bcf vs. 107.4 bcfd the week prior, with the biggest decrease in LNG exports.

Exports to Mexico were 7.3 bcfd vs. 7.5 the prior week. LNG exports were 15.5 bcfd vs. 16.8 bcfd the prior week. Dutch TTF prices, which fell in the days ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, have reversed course and are up about 4.0% this week to $9.85/MMbtu equivalent while Asia’s JKM was quoted at $11.55/MMbtu.

The EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report indicated an injection of 13 bcf, below the forecasted +25 bcf and the 5-year average of +33 bcf. Total gas in storage is now 3.199 tcf, dipping to 2.9% below last year and to 5.8% above the 5-year average.

Some analysts are now calling for a season-ending total that will exceed 3.9 tcf while the EIA is projecting 3.87 tcf, which would be 2% above the 5-year average.

Thus far during the injection season, total volumes have consistently been above the 5-year averages.

Natural gas, technical analysis