this would make the DUP look weak and I would love that
SFFF coalition (plus mystery guest) it is then.
Stormont has to stay in some form for transition, so the TDs from NI can double job as MLAs to save us all some money. Heck even keep the fifth seats as MLAs only.
Plus it gives the unionists who can’t bear to sit in the Dáil something to do.
Seeing unionist parties in the Dáil would be so bizarre lol. I wonder if hardline unionists would even sit in it or abstain. Although ideally I’d like to hang onto Stormont in this scenario.
This seems to be missing a whole constituency in Dublin.
Can’t we have less TDs and even less local ones. 50 local TDs and 50 party list ones.
An interesting piece but it’s not really how things would probably play out. You can’t just bolt NI’s 2022 Assembly results onto the 2020 Dáil and call it a day, a united Ireland would mean a complete redraw of constituencies, turnout patterns shifting, and some NI parties either merging with southern ones or vanishing entirely, replaced by other entities.
The DUP, UUP, TUV etc.. surviving as standalone blocs in the Dáil is very doubtful too, just as SDLP would probably fold into FF and Alliance might have to reinvent itself, no more fence to sit on and what not. Sinn Féin’s seat numbers here look like a mashup of two separate elections rather than a realistic projection. Sinn Féin’s dominance in NI would also likely bleed into the south, but that doesn’t automatically hand them a majority, in fact, their ceiling might hit earlier than expected in a UI scenario. FF/FG could still carve up seats between them, and new coalitions would emerge to balance SF’s growth. Until Sinn Féin clearly distance themselves from all that toxic IRA baggage, no more excuse making, no more commemorating, the southern instinct will be to contain them and if they ever get into government to obstruct them, not hand them any real power. I project that if unity is to happen it’ll probably be the early to mid 2040’s and they could very well be unrecognisable by then and they wouldn’t be the first party to change tact when it meant getting their hands on power. Real power, not the pantomime up in Stormont.
So it’s neat to look at, but closer to fiction that than an actual forecast of what a post unity Dáil would look like.
It’d be interesting to see what would happen to SF vote share in the North. Sometimes this type of party suffer really badly once they achieve their main goal. Sometimes they remain dominate for decades.
lol the ppl on this sub are on a different planet. I’ve been hearing about a the inevitability of a United Ireland for 40 odd years 🤣
I actually see Alliance becoming an all Ireland party and doing quite well in the greater Dublin area being a trendy modern liberal party
Why doesn’t FF/FG have a presence in the North like SF does?
Lol!
Imagine the dup having to do actual politics? That would be useful
I know this is based on current circumstances but I suspect, depending on the unification process, there would be significant realignment, amalgamation, inter-party transfer of voters, and party-splitting, leading to a different looking electoral map.
I think Alliance, SDLP and Social Democrats could merge and do very well.
A United Ireland is it a Republic or Constitutional Monarchy under this situations? I am very interesting outcome if Irish Free State continues and British Monarch as Head of State of Ireland and Irish Culture more British? Ireland still part of United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and what is the election outcome for Irish Free State outcome and also UK wide including Ireland what kind of Government if Still have Irish Free State and Still have United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and also I am very interested Irish Free State situations got a Governor General to represent the Monarch in Irish Free State?
I did see the idea floated that the six counties would retain their government structure essentially being a devolved government with the Dail replacing Westminster.
Essentially it would allow certain structures like the NHS, benefits etc to remain in place with less disruption.
Obviously it’s very dependent what is agreed and discussed in what a united Ireland would look like talks.
16 comments
this would make the DUP look weak and I would love that
SFFF coalition (plus mystery guest) it is then.
Stormont has to stay in some form for transition, so the TDs from NI can double job as MLAs to save us all some money. Heck even keep the fifth seats as MLAs only.
Plus it gives the unionists who can’t bear to sit in the Dáil something to do.
Seeing unionist parties in the Dáil would be so bizarre lol. I wonder if hardline unionists would even sit in it or abstain. Although ideally I’d like to hang onto Stormont in this scenario.
This seems to be missing a whole constituency in Dublin.
Can’t we have less TDs and even less local ones. 50 local TDs and 50 party list ones.
An interesting piece but it’s not really how things would probably play out. You can’t just bolt NI’s 2022 Assembly results onto the 2020 Dáil and call it a day, a united Ireland would mean a complete redraw of constituencies, turnout patterns shifting, and some NI parties either merging with southern ones or vanishing entirely, replaced by other entities.
The DUP, UUP, TUV etc.. surviving as standalone blocs in the Dáil is very doubtful too, just as SDLP would probably fold into FF and Alliance might have to reinvent itself, no more fence to sit on and what not. Sinn Féin’s seat numbers here look like a mashup of two separate elections rather than a realistic projection. Sinn Féin’s dominance in NI would also likely bleed into the south, but that doesn’t automatically hand them a majority, in fact, their ceiling might hit earlier than expected in a UI scenario. FF/FG could still carve up seats between them, and new coalitions would emerge to balance SF’s growth. Until Sinn Féin clearly distance themselves from all that toxic IRA baggage, no more excuse making, no more commemorating, the southern instinct will be to contain them and if they ever get into government to obstruct them, not hand them any real power. I project that if unity is to happen it’ll probably be the early to mid 2040’s and they could very well be unrecognisable by then and they wouldn’t be the first party to change tact when it meant getting their hands on power. Real power, not the pantomime up in Stormont.
So it’s neat to look at, but closer to fiction that than an actual forecast of what a post unity Dáil would look like.
It’d be interesting to see what would happen to SF vote share in the North. Sometimes this type of party suffer really badly once they achieve their main goal. Sometimes they remain dominate for decades.
lol the ppl on this sub are on a different planet. I’ve been hearing about a the inevitability of a United Ireland for 40 odd years 🤣
I actually see Alliance becoming an all Ireland party and doing quite well in the greater Dublin area being a trendy modern liberal party
Why doesn’t FF/FG have a presence in the North like SF does?
Lol!
Imagine the dup having to do actual politics? That would be useful
I know this is based on current circumstances but I suspect, depending on the unification process, there would be significant realignment, amalgamation, inter-party transfer of voters, and party-splitting, leading to a different looking electoral map.
I think Alliance, SDLP and Social Democrats could merge and do very well.
A United Ireland is it a Republic or Constitutional Monarchy under this situations? I am very interesting outcome if Irish Free State continues and British Monarch as Head of State of Ireland and Irish Culture more British? Ireland still part of United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and what is the election outcome for Irish Free State outcome and also UK wide including Ireland what kind of Government if Still have Irish Free State and Still have United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and also I am very interested Irish Free State situations got a Governor General to represent the Monarch in Irish Free State?
I did see the idea floated that the six counties would retain their government structure essentially being a devolved government with the Dail replacing Westminster.
Essentially it would allow certain structures like the NHS, benefits etc to remain in place with less disruption.
Obviously it’s very dependent what is agreed and discussed in what a united Ireland would look like talks.
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