Portugal is confronting a deepening demographic crisis, as recent data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) highlights a marked decline in its younger population and a significant increase in the elderly. The Portugal News reports that in 2023 only 12.8 percent of the Portuguese population was aged between 0 and 14, positioning the country as the third in the European Union with the lowest proportion of young people, surpassed only by Italy and Malta.

This trend is attributed by the INE to decades of consistently low birth rates combined with a rise in life expectancy. Analysis reveals that between 1970 and 2024, the proportion of young people in Portugal decreased from 28.5 to 12.6 percent. 

Concurrently, the population aged 65 and over more than doubled, escalating from 9.7 to 24.3 percent. This demographic shift places Portugal among the oldest nations within the EU, trailing only Italy and significantly exceeding the average European age profile, the Portugal News says.

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The Portuguese ageing index, which calculates the ratio of elderly individuals to young people, reached 192.4 elderly per 100 young people in 2024. This figure underscores the escalating challenges confronting the nation’s social and economic policies. Furthermore, the INE reports that the renewal rate for the working-age population has fallen to 77.4, below the European average, indicating that the number of young individuals entering the workforce is insufficient to replace those exiting it.

The ramifications of fewer young people and an expanding elderly population are already evident across Portuguese society and its economy, with a diminishing asset base exerting considerable pressure on social security provisions and healthcare services. In the EU, only Luxembourg and Ireland currently have more young people than elderly individuals, says the Portugal News, emphasising the distinctive nature of Portugal’s demographic predicament.

The INE projects that if current demographic patterns persist, Portugal’s resident population will decline to approximately 8.2 million by 2080. This forecast further accentuates the urgency for policy interventions designed to stimulate birth rates and facilitate the integration of young people and migrants into the labour market.

This article was drafted by AI before being reviewed by an editor.