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People gather outside a foreign exchange office in Tehran
Three-minute read
The activation of the UN “snapback” mechanism by France, Germany, and the UK has rattled Iran’s leadership, exposing deep anxieties over a looming economic collapse and potential social unrest. While officials maintain a tone of defiance publicly, behind closed doors the clerical regime is scrambling to contain panic, silence warnings, and project stability.
IRGC Detains Chamber of Commerce Officials Over Snapback Report
In one of the clearest signs of damage control, IRGC intelligence agents interrogated senior officials at Iran’s Chamber of Commerce after the publication of an internal report warning of severe economic fallout from snapback sanctions. Sources suggest that the IRGC entered the Chamber’s headquarters on August 28, questioning members of its International Affairs Department and forcing them to retract their findings.
According to those familiar with the incident, board members were also ordered not to comment publicly on the effects of renewed UN sanctions. The move highlights how sensitive the regime has become to economic projections that could fuel public anxiety and trigger unrest.
Senior #Iranian Regime Insider Faces Prosecution After Comments Seen as Undermining Morale Amid Escalating Criseshttps://t.co/jVfljdqUSN
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 29, 2025
Leaked Report Warned of Currency Collapse and Deep Recession
Before being censored, the Chamber of Commerce report — titled “Economic Impacts of UN Sanctions on Iran” — forecasted dire consequences if snapback measures were fully reinstated. In its worst-case scenario:
The U.S. dollar could surge to 165,000 IRR in the coming months.
Inflation could climb as high as 90%.
Economic growth would remain negative across all scenarios, pushing Iran into a deeper recession.
The report warned that Iran’s economy has “no capacity to absorb another wave of UN sanctions” after years of structural weakness, previous U.S. restrictions, and mounting fiscal deficits. Economists close to the Chamber concluded that fresh sanctions could accelerate unemployment, bankruptcies, and social unrest.
#Iran Faces Mounting Crisis: Snapback Mechanism Threats, Nationwide Military Alert, and Fear of Uprisinghttps://t.co/RM2d5Gbltz
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 26, 2025
Why the Regime Reacted So Harshly
Following the leak, state-affiliated media accused the Chamber of “spreading panic” and “fueling instability” in financial markets. Analysts say the IRGC’s heavy-handed intervention underscores two critical realities:
The regime fears that open discussion of economic risks could further destabilize currency markets and deepen public distrust.
Authorities see maintaining morale and controlling narratives as essential to preventing widespread protests.
The sharp response came amid a broader effort to suppress economic warnings. The Ministry of Culture issued a classified directive to all media outlets, ordering them to avoid “alarming headlines” or “crisis-driven analyses” and to emphasize Iran’s “resilience against sanctions.” Journalists were specifically banned from publishing projections linking snapback sanctions to price hikes or market instability.
Khamenei Pulls Strings in Coordinated Crackdown as #Iran’s Revisionist Faction Refuses to Yieldhttps://t.co/KPbDxjMj8L
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 27, 2025
Parliament Pushes Confrontational Response
At the same time, Parliament is escalating its rhetoric. Deputy Speaker Hossein Hajji Deligani announced that lawmakers are drafting a “triple-urgency bill” that would:
Withdraw Iran from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Additional Protocol.
End all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Suspend all talks with the U.S. and European powers.
Deligani accused the country’s diplomats of weakness, claiming that past negotiations “encouraged Europe” to trigger snapback.
#Iran‘s Economic Collapse Deepens as 80% Face Poverty, Blackouts Worsen, and Regime Braces for Unresthttps://t.co/X0aF4AqFgG
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 25, 2025
Confidential Memos Show Security Fears
A separate leaked memo from the Ministry of Intelligence warned government agencies and state-owned firms that renewed UN sanctions could:
Collapse oil revenues
Trigger massive unemployment
Cause widespread bankruptcies
Intensify the risk of urban protests
The ministry urged companies to prepare “resilience plans” including contract renegotiations, cybersecurity upgrades, and risk-hedging strategies — measures aimed less at foreign policy than at containing domestic fallout.
While Tehran projects strength abroad, its internal actions — censorship, arrests, and forced retractions — reflect a deepening morale crisis. The snapback activation has intensified fears of public backlash, currency freefall, and renewed waves of unrest. For a regime already facing declining legitimacy, the return of UN sanctions risks becoming a political and social tipping point.