Weekly Significant Activity Report – August 30, 2025

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1. SS: This post analyzes some significant geopolitical developments from August 23-30 involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

   Key events covered include: 

   1. China’s protests of recent shows of solidarity for Taiwan amid Beijing’s efforts to portray the CCP as the driving force behind WWII victory on the 80th anniversary of the end of the war against Japan;
   2. Russia lashes out at Europe through Ukraine with multiple menacing attacks and gestures amid calls for European peacekeeping efforts;
   3. After a brief bull run on peace hopes, Russia’s economy returns to pessimism driven by Ukrainian attacks on oil and gas infrastructure;
   4. Iran works frantically to thwart an impending snapback of sanctions announced by France, Germany, and the UK;
   5. Iran’s relationship with Australia rapidly deteriorated amid reports by Australian intelligence and law enforcement that the IRGC was behind multiple antisemitic attacks in the country;
   6. New report released by the South Korean central bank suggests that 2024 economic growth in North Korea, the biggest since 2016, was driven by support for Russia’s war effort.

   Things to keep a close eye on in coming days:

   1. The messaging surrounding China’s celebration of the 80th anniversary of victory in the “World Anti-Fascist War” next week. The event will feature provocative displays of unity including with leaders of Russia and North Korea.
   2. Iran continues to flirt with withdrawing from the NPT. Next week will provide greater indications of whether Iran intends to follow this path.
   3. President Trump may announce a new policy toward Russia next week.

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