Four out of Europe’s Big Five economies showed a contrasting performance between new and used car markets in the first half of 2025. Are both markets fundamentally decoupling? Also, market intelligence by Autovista24 points to the UK’s used car market as having the strongest recovery, and now is within a hair’s breadth of pre-Covid levels. 

The used car markets of the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy all posted positive growth for the first six months of 2025, achieving aggregate growth of approximately 1.8% year-on-year, this despite continued volatility in the new car sector. 

Fundamental decoupling

In fact, the period was characterized by a fundamental decoupling between new and used car performance in four of the five markets:

In Italy, used car transactions grew by 3.1% while new car registrations declined by 3.5%.  Germany saw modest used car growth of 0.3% against a significant 4.7% decline in new car sales.  France experienced similar divergence with used car growth of 0.9% while new car sales remained essentially flat.  In Spain, the divergence favoured the new market, which surged by 13.9% while used car growth was more modest at 3.0%.

This divergence suggests that both segments are driven by distinct incentives. Used car buyers are increasingly seeking value amid economic uncertainty, while new car purchases are more heavily influenced by policy incentives and replacement necessities.

EV sales surging

Another imporant development: the accelerating electrification adoption, with used EV sales surging across all markets, with growth rates ranging from 15% to 52%. Overall, distinct regional trajectories reflected varying policy environments and economic conditions. The UK achieved the strongest recovery by reaching within 0.9% of pre-COVID levels.

Overall, the total transactions volume of the Big Five markets reached around 13.9 milllion units in H1 2025, up 1.8% year-on-year. The UK led with 4.02 million transactions (+2.2% yoy), followed by Germany (3.27 million, +0.3%), Italy (2.85 million, 3.1%), France (2.72 million, +0.9%), and Spain (1.03 million, +3%). 

Here’s how each of the Big Five markets did in the first half of this year:

UK: recovery champion

The UK is Europe’s recovery champion, marking its 10th consecutive quarter of growth and getting very close to 2019 performance levels. The sustained growth reflects the normalization of supply chains, with new car registrations having recovered and feeding fresh inventory into the used market. 

The UK also demonstrated the biggest shift to used BEVs among the Big Five, with sales surging by 40% to just under 69,000 units, for a 3.4% market share. HEVs grew by 27.7% to just over 100,000 units (5%), while PHEVs grew by 10.3% to nearly 24,500 units (1.2%). 

This electrification surge pushed total EV share in the UK used vehicle market to 9.7% in the second quarter, indicating robust consumer confidence in used EVs.

Germany: stability über alles

Germany’s used car market exhibited its characteristic resilience with minimal volatility, achieving marginal H1 growth of 0.3% that represented just 8,985 additional units compared to the previous year. This stability reflected a mature market finding equilibrium despite supply chain disruptions affecting new vehicle availability.

You could also say that those supply constraints, with registrations declining 4.7% in the first half, contributed to the used market’s resilience, by limiting the influx of fresh inventory while consumer demand remained relatively stable despite external economic pressures.

Italy: unexpected growth

Italy delivered perhaps the most surprising H1 performance among the Big Five. Its strong domestic demand for used cars persisted despite significant struggles in the new car sector. 

Used car transactions reached just under 2.85 million units, representing robust 3.1% growth for the first half of the year. This performance stood in stark contrast to Italy’s new car market, which experienced a 3.5% decline, highlighting a clear consumer shift toward the used vehicle value proposition. 

The resilience demonstrates how economic-conscious consumers are increasingly viewing used cars as the optimal choice during uncertain times.

France: policy uncertainty

The French market faced particular challenges from policy uncertainty. This due to a vote in Parliament to abolish low-emission zones, pending full approval and constitutional review. This potential reversal of Crit’Air restrictions created market hesitation as consumers and dealers awaited clarity on future regulations affecting older internal combustion engine vehicles.

As a result, France’s used car market showed restraint in H1, with about 2.72  million transactions representing 0.9% growth. Momentum stalled in Q2 with a 0.3% decline – a performance also due to broader economic headwinds. 

Nevertheless, the electrification of the used market in France continues, with PHEVs up 43% in June (year on year), HEVs up 19% and BEVs up 15%, taking the overall EV share up to 11.1%. 

Spain: market of contradictions

Of the Big Five, Spain’s performance was the most contradictory. Used car transactions reached 1.03 million in H1, up 3%, a positive figure masking underlying challenges. 

The most concerning of which is the rapid ageing of Spain’s fleet, with over-15-year-old cars now representing more than 41% of all used carsales. This is in stark contrast to Spain’s booming new car market, growing 14% in H1 – helped no doubt by the reintroduction of MOVES III, a set of EV incentives worth up to €7,000. 

Here as well, used EV adoption surged, with used BEV sales surging 52% – but because of its small base still only representing 1.2% of all sales in H1. Used PHEV sales, for their part, increased by 41.5%.

Dramatic acceleration

Putting all those pieces together, the used car puzzle across Europe shows a picture of dramatically accelerating used EV sales. This is due to a number of factors:

Rapidly expanding supply of used EVs, thanks to lease returns and early adopter trade-ins.  Dramatically improved price accessibility, as used EVs reach price points attractive to mainstream consumers who previously wouldn’t have considered going electric.  Substantially grown availablility of EV charging infrastructure, largely (and perhaps terminally) reducing range anxiety.  Significantly improved EV awareness, thanks to growing experience and word-of-mouth among the general public. 

Looking ahead in the short term, the outlook for the European used car market in H2 2025 and H1 2026 appears generally positive, driven by the surge in EV supply, the maturing of EV technology, the extension of EV warranties, and rising consumer confidence. 

Structural change could see EVs making up to 20% of the used market across Europe by 2028, and online sales platforms capturing up to 40% market share. 

For the Big Five specifically,

The UK is likely to exceed 2019 by the end of this year. Germany is likely to see modest (1-2%) growth, with EVs reaching 8-10% market share by 2026.  Driven by value-conscious consumers, Italy is likely to see 2%4% growth.  France’s market uncertainty should clear up by mid next year, potentially giving rise to a market acceleration.  Spain needs policies to address its ageing fleets.  Lessons for stakeholders

And finally, what lessons can stakeholders take from these evolutions?

Dealers must invest in EV expertise and charging infrastructure and develop digital-first customer engagement strategies. Certified pre-owned (CPO) programmes will be increasingly important to capture buyers seeking assurance about the condition of EVs and their batteries.  Manufacturers must plan for accelerated EV lease return volumes and develop sophisticated EV remarketing strategies, such as direct-consumer formulas. Last but not least, policymakers face complex challenges. They need to address ageing vehicle fleets, must provide regulatory clarity, and develop support specifically for the used EV market (whereas most incentives now go to the new EV market). 

Targeted support for the used EV market is an underused pathway to achieving faster, broader and more sustainable way of electrifying Europe’s fleets. 

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