Italy vs Slovenia – Preview & Prediction (Sep. 07, 2025)

Italy vs Slovenia – Preview & Prediction: Italy will play against Slovenia on Sunday in the EuroBasket 2025 Round of 16.

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Italy vs Slovenia Preview

Italy somehow quietly navigated through Group C at EuroBasket, finishing with a 4-1 record, which in the end was enough for second place. They started with a loss to Greece, then went on to defeat Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Spain, and Cyprus. The most intense game came against Spain, where the winner was decided in the closing moments, but Gianmarco Pozzecco’s team made better decisions and stayed calmer. Now comes the phase of the tournament where nobody has the right to make mistakes, and if Italy wants to get involved in the medal fight, they will need to improve significantly on the offensive end.

The biggest issue for Italy on that side of the floor is the lack of a consistent difference-maker they can rely on. Simone Fontecchio scored an outstanding 39 points in the win against Bosnia and Herzegovina, but apart from that, he has shown very little—especially compared to the expectations surrounding him. Nicolo Melli is there to knock down shots and make the right decisions in crucial moments, while Marco Spissu and Darius Thompson need to hit when it matters most. Worth mentioning are also Saliou Niang and Mouhamet Diouf, who serve as defensive anchors for Italy, along with the ever-present Alessandro Pajola.

Slovenia finished the group stage with three wins and two losses, despite starting EuroBasket with defeats to Poland and France. However, even in those games, the offensive potential of this team was evident, and it has become a bigger surprise when they score under 90 points than when they surpass that mark. That’s hardly shocking when you have Luka Doncic on your roster, a player who creates advantages in every way imaginable. There is likely not a single player at this EuroBasket capable of slowing Doncic down in a 1-on-1 situation, and when you opt for a double-team, Aleksej Nikolic, Edo Muric, Gregor Hrovat, and Klemen Prepelic are there to hit open threes.

That offensive dynamic has worked well so far, and Slovenia certainly won’t stray from it. What they must improve, however, is their defense, which has been among the weakest in the entire tournament. Apart from Nikolic, very few are capable of stopping opposing guards when they attack 1-on-1, and Doncic is often targeted in hopes of drawing fouls against him. Alen Omic has had a couple of good outings, but he will need to be more consistent under the rim and quicker with his reactions when the ball comes into his hands, as his slow responses have already cost his team points on several occasions.

Italy vs Slovenia H2H

They have played five times so far, with Slovenia leading the head-to-head 4-1 against Italy.

Injuries and Suspensions

Donte DiVincenzo, Stefano Tonut, and Achille Polonara are players not available for Italy at this EuroBasket, though they would likely have been part of the team under different circumstances. Slovenia is without Josh Nebo, Vlatko Cancar, Jaka Blazic, and Zoran Dragic.

Where to Watch Italy vs Slovenia?

Italy vs Slovenia Best Betting Tip and Prediction

It’s hard to imagine this Italian defense being able to stop Doncic in any way. Slovenia will once again find their rhythm on that side of the floor unless their shooting percentages collapse spectacularly. On the other hand, Italy’s offense has been quite weak so far, and the question is whether they can impose themselves even against this shaky opposing defense. All in all, we trust Doncic and his teammates more, and we expect to see them in the quarterfinals. Therefore, the prediction is clear.

Tip-off Time: Sunday, 07.09.2025, 17:30 CET
Prediction: Slovenia +4.5
Odds: 1.80
Sportsbook: 22Bet

*Odds are active at the time the article is published

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