Analysts attributed the surge to a mix of factors: a major refinery’s surprise decision to advance maintenance, expected winter demand and looming EU sanctions that could shut Indian supplies. They expect European demand for Indian diesel to remain strong through the rest of 2025.
The late August push, particularly to Rotterdam, appears to be covering volume lost due to unexpected refinery maintenance, said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler. “Exports rose sharply as Shell’s Pernis (Netherlands) refinery advanced its planned turnaround from 2026. This has surprised the market,” he said.
An industry executive said that advancing maintenance could also be preparation for the post-January market, when Indian fuels refined from Russian oil may no longer enter Europe.
India has meanwhile come under heavy criticism from senior US officials, who accused its refiners of profiteering by buying discounted Russian crude and reselling it after processing to the West, thereby funding Moscow’s war machine. India has rejected this charge, arguing that the West can simply stop buying Indian fuels if it objects.
Indian exporters are expected to see continued strong demand from Europe this year. “European buyers may accelerate liftings from India given that Middle Eastern refineries will be having a high maintenance in October-November, echoing the stockpiling seen ahead of the February 2023 EU ban on Russian products,” Ritola said.
Europe counts Middle Eastern refiners as key suppliers.
Driven by the surge in European shipments, India’s total diesel exports increased to 603,000 bpd in August, up about 17% from both July and the year-ago period, according to Kpler.
When announcing sanctions in July, the EU said importers would have to provide evidence of the country of origin of the crude used in refining products from third countries. However, uncertainties remain around how the import curb will be implemented.
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