This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
MTN Group (MTNOY) is facing a liquidity dead-end in Iran. After years of trying to exit the country, CEO Ralph Mupita now calls MTN’s minority stake in Irancell a frozen asset, citing the impact of U.S. sanctions that block any movement of capital in or out. MTN has zero operational control over Irancell and has already offloaded its Afghanistan unit, as it pushes for a full retreat from the Middle East. The company is also cooperating with a U.S. Department of Justice grand jury probe related to its legacy operations in both Afghanistan and Iran. For now, no claims have been filed, and MTN has made no financial provisions tied to the investigation.
Back home, MTN’s eyes are scanning the consolidation chessboard. South Africa’s telecom sector is saturated and structurally under-earning, according to Mupita, who pointed to the country’s limited profit pool as a key constraint. A recent decision by regulators to greenlight Vodacom’s acquisition of Remgro’s fiber assets could mark a shift in sentiment, potentially opening the door to bigger M&A. Bloomberg reports MTN may be reviving its courtship of Telkom SA, with both companies said to be in early-stage talks with advisers. The deal had previously stalled, but the new regulatory tone might change the dynamics.
MTN now generates less than a third of its revenue from South Africa, making local consolidation and international exits even more critical. Yet the company is walking a tightropenavigating geopolitical chokeholds in Iran, mounting legal scrutiny in the U.S., and a reshuffling competitive landscape at home. Investors hoping for clarity may have to wait, but one thing is clear: MTN is repositioning, whether by dealmaking, divestments, or regulatory alignment. The next move could reshape its footprint across both Africa and the Middle East.