Farage overtakes Starmer and Badenoch in popularity following Rayner scandal, writes Ollie Corfe, Senior Data Journalist at The Telegraph

Reform is on course to win the next general election, according to The Telegraph’s Election Predictor.

Reform UK could win 331 seats if a vote were held today, clearing the 326-MP bar for a Commons majority, according to The Telegraph’s own election predictor tool.

It is the first time the data tool has put Nigel Farage’s party on track to win.

The latest polling shows just under a third of British adults would cast a ballot in Reform’s favour, double the proportion from July.

Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/06/majority-predicted-reform-nigel-farage-election-predictor/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/06/majority-predicted-reform-nigel-farage-election-predictor/

Posted by TheTelegraph

27 comments

  3. This is genuinely terrifying! How can the British fall for Farage’s lies a second time after the complete cluster fuck of brexit?

  4. The “Telegraphs own predictor tool” lol….constant bs from the FullOfShitoGraph , the paper for c**** who don’t want think they are.

  5. If things don’t change for better I can see them reaching 40% till 2029.

  6. Am sure it will implode some time soon. Farage is a fucking joke.

  9. Is a General Election going to be held today?

    If not, this is all bollocks, isn’t it?

  10. I hope this is a big enough kick up the arse for Labour to realise they cannot take the piss. Being less corrupt than the tories is not enough. Being less corrupt than Farage is also not enough.

  12. Once again the public’s majority view doesnt match up with lefty reddit.

    Redditors crying hugging their plushies

  13. Farage doesn’t give a fuck about the UK, our country is fukn spiralling.

  14. The Telegraph saying this is like the Obama rewarding himself a medal meme.

  15. Wait, the Telegraph has a *senior data journalist*?

    LinkedIn tells me that Ollie Corfe has only three years’ experience as a data journalist, before which he worked in events. He has a degree in economics. Otherwise he has no data background at all. Either he’s fooling the Telegraph into thinking he knows about data, or the Telegraph are trying to fool us.

  18. If people are that stupid, we’ll deserve it. He’ll burn the whole fucking country to the ground and cash in the insurance money. 

  19. A part of me thinks a reform government might have a long term positive effect on the country because it might actually grease the wheels for fundamental constitutional change which we desperately need as well as giving the electorate a kick up the arse with how bad they’ll be.

    Although saying that, I thought similar about trump, Brexit and Johnson

  20. Reform want a paid for insurance style NHS. Farage has said as much. And that’s before they start taking away working rights and the likes. I swear they need a system where to vote for someone you need to be able to name at least four of their policies…

  21. Good, as I recall there were plenty of predictions for a majority remain vote and for Corbyn to win, so I’m going to stuff my tinfoil hat on and assume this means he’s got no chance.

  24. All I can say is get your skills and money right and move out, cause the UK is done.

  25. This prediction is baseless and completely wrong in distribution.

  26. Depressing how easily people fall straight into Putin’s trap (manufactured migrants crisis to destabilise Europe, already worked spectacularly well with the Brexit). Critical thinking is a lost skill

  27. Shock as rightwing paper says rightwing grifters will win!

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