By Joseph Puder
In the Muslim Middle East, plotting revenge is a way of life. So, it is not surprising that Iran is seeking to avenge the humiliating defeat inflicted by the United States and Israel in June. While Israel is the main focus of Iran’s revenge, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also targets for the ayatollahs of Iran.
With Hezbollah demobilized and now-defunct Syrian President Bashar Assad’s territory no longer available to transport arms to the terror group, the entire Shi’ite crescent has been disrupted and is close to elimination. Only the Houthis currently function as a viable proxy, although some Iraqi Shi’ite militias, loyal to the ayatollahs, might target American and Israeli interests as well.
The Iranians are experts at finding new clients for arms, especially when they can bribe warring factions, as in the case of Sudan. Sudan’s territory stretches along the Red Sea. Its port might provide Iran with a way to disrupt Israel’s navy along the Red Sea, thereby endangering the Jewish state’s ability to trade with Asia and Africa. Should that happen, the Red Sea would be locked on both sides, with the Houthis controlling the southeastern shore of the waterway.
Iran has significantly increased its military and economic involvement in Sudan’s ongoing civil war, leading many experts to warn that it might well be Iran’s next proxy. The recent rapprochement between Iran and Khartoum’s military leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the de facto head of state, follows an eight-year diplomatic rupture. It is designed to advance Iran’s strategic goals in the Red Sea and counter its regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of Sudan. (Source: Screenshot via JNS)
Ironically, under al-Burhan, Sudan was poised to join the 2020 Abraham Accords that President Donald Trump initiated during his first term in office. Sudan signed the “Abraham Accords Declaration” in January 2021, which normalized relations with Israel, but a full bilateral agreement was delayed by political instability and remains unratified. While Sudan signed the declaration, the unfolding of that country’s civil war, which began in 2023, stalled further progress.
In February 2023, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with al-Burhan and finalized the text for a formal peace agreement. The signing was contingent on the formation of a civilian government in Sudan. As part of it, the United States removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, which had blocked Sudan’s access to international loans and financial aid. The United States also loaned the country $1.2 billion.
The Islamic Republic, however, has been exploiting Sudan’s ongoing civil war and instability to expand its influence, raising fears that Tehran could turn the Sudanese Armed Forces into a proxy force. Since late 2023, Iran has been supplying this army with military equipment, notably Mohajer-6 drones, strengthening its position in the conflict against the rival Rapid Support Forces, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which the UAE supports.
Iran’s military support for the Sudanese Armed Forces is part of its broader campaign to re-establish a foothold on the Red Sea. Tehran has long coveted access to Sudan’s 530-mile coastline.
The Sudanese government broke off relations with Iran in 2016 in support of Saudi Arabia after Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Relations with Iran were renewed following the March 2023 restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, mediated by the Chinese Communist regime.
The war in Sudan has killed tens of thousands of people, with some estimates placing the death toll as high as 150,000, and more than 14 million people have been displaced, according to U.S. Envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello. (Note the absence of any protests on U.S. campuses over the butchery in Sudan.)
Israel is clearly concerned about any attempt by Tehran to make Sudan its new proxy. Iran’s influence in a destabilized Sudan would enable Iran to transfer weapons to Hamas and undermine regional stability. The potential for a new “proxy of terror” in Africa is seen as a dangerous escalation of Iran’s strategy to encircle and challenge Israel.
Israel has previously conducted airstrikes in Sudan, such as in 2009 and 2012, to prevent the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hamas. A renewed threat would likely lead to similar pre-emptive military actions.
Officials in Israel have argued that simply fighting another Iranian proxy is insufficient. They believe that Israel must directly confront Iran as “the head of the snake,” as it did in June. A more assertive Iranian move in Sudan could strengthen this line of thinking within the Israeli security establishment.
Iran’s move to exert its influence in Sudan is not just an Israeli problem. Saudi Arabia and the UAE would also be impacted by such meddling and threatened by an Iranian armed presence across the Red Sea. Arab states and America share concerns about destabilization in the region and the security of the Red Sea. And, American and European officials have charged that “external actors like Iran are pouring fuel on the fire.”
In response to this growing threat, Jerusalem is expected to increase coordination with regional and international partners. It must also warn al-Burhan of the consequences to his forces should he cooperate with Iran against Israel. ■
Joseph Puder is the founder and director of the Interfaith Taskforce for America and Israel.