The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has again set its base forecast for oil prices for 2025 at $70 per barrel, APA-Economics reports, citing the rating agency.
The agency predicted the price of Brent oil at $65 per barrel for 2026-2027, $60 for 2028, and the medium term. In other words, the forecast was left unchanged.
The price of WTI oil is forecast at $65 this year, $60 for 2026-2027, and $57 for 2028 and the medium term.
“Fitch” expects global oil demand to increase by 700,000-800,000 barrels a day in 2025 and 2026, reflecting slower economic growth and the impact of the energy transition.
The rating agency said the International Energy Agency forecasts global supply growth of 2.5MMbpd in 2025 and 1.9MMbpd in 2026, driven by OPEC+’s decision to unwind voluntary cuts and output increases in Brazil, Canada, and the US. The market remains oversupplied with expected production growth exceeding consumption growth by more than 1MMbpd in 2025 and 2026.
“Additional sanctions and tariffs targeting Russian and Iranian oil have added a risk premium to oil prices but are unlikely to tighten the market significantly, as Russian volumes continue to be sold into the oversupplied market. The EU has adopted a further sanctions package against Russia, including the lowering of the oil price cap to USD47.6 from USD60 a barrel and restricting imports of refined oil products derived from Russian oil. The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India due to the country’s purchases of Russian oil and sanctioned a network of shipping companies and vessels related to the transportation of Iranian oil,” Fitch added.