Global Scenarios Service – Tariff Endgame

The latest scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and policy uncertainty, the stance of monetary and fiscal policy, and financial market conditions.

Latest risk scenarios:

Worst-case trade war. The US hikes tariffs further, triggering greater retaliation from trading partners and significant supply-chain disruption.

Market Correction. Investor concerns over rising US public debt trigger a sharp and persistent rise in yields, pushing up lending rates and weighing on stock markets.

Mild US recession. The US economy falters as policy uncertainty weighs on business hiring and investment, consumer spending, and investor sentiment.

Reduced Policy Uncertainty. Global growth recovers strongly as investment rebounds amid greater clarity over US trade policy and a more certain economic outlook.

Government-led upturn. The global economy strengthens amid Chinese stimulus and reform, fiscal support in the US and EU, and increased OPEC production.

To learn how these scenarios impact key global economic indicators, download the executive summary.

Watch our recent webinar Quantifying the risks from trade policy uncertainty and other global risk scenarios