Major LNG development, check.
Oilsands carbon capture project, maybe.
New oil pipeline, not yet.
The Carney government unveiled the first batch from its major projects list on Thursday, identifying five nation-building infrastructure developments it wants to see fast-tracked for regulatory approvals.
If this was a boxing match, Thursday’s announcement would be a split decision for the country’s oil and gas sector, and the Alberta government.
They got part of what they want — a conventional energy project on the list and the potential for more to come. But they’ll have to wait on other developments to boost the exports of Canadian oil and natural gas, including more pipelines.
“It’s a start,” said Chris Carlsen, CEO of Birchcliff Energy, a mid-sized natural gas producer.
“They’re saying the right things, they’re making some of the right moves, but we need to see action.”
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Premier Danielle Smith’s government has been pushing for a new West Coast oil pipeline, more LNG export capacity and a massive carbon capture network in the oilsands to make the federal list.
In Edmonton, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the initial list that will be referred to the government’s new Major Projects Office for consideration, including mines, a port expansion and a nuclear development.
It also includes the second phase of the LNG Canada development on the British Columbia coast.
If the project now under consideration by its partners the development is led by Shell — ultimately receives a positive final investment decision, it would double the existing facility’s export of supercooled natural gas to Asia.
The first phase of the terminal, which began commercial operations this summer, will eventually be able to export about 1.8 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas per day. The expansion would help bolster chronically weak gas prices in Western Canada.
Yet, industry’s hopes for a new pipeline to send more oil from Alberta to the British Columbia coast for export didn’t make the list.
The GasLog Glasgow at LNG Canada’s berth in Kitimat, B.C.
The prime minister also identified six other projects in earlier development stages that could be considered and referred to the major projects office in the future — another list is expected by mid-November — including the Pathways Alliance’s carbon capture network.
The proposed $16.5-billion project by the country’s largest oilsands producers would include a 400-kilometre pipeline connecting more than 20 oilsands facilities to an underground CO2 storage hub in Alberta.
It’s been studied for several years, although negotiations between the federal and provincial governments and the producers’ group have not yet reached a final agreement.
Of note, Carney indicated the decarbonization project could help facilitate new growth in the oilsands “by pairing investments in Pathways with a new pipeline to a variety of potential markets.”
“We have the lowest risk oil in the world. We know exactly where it is. We know how to mine it and develop it. The marginal costs are among the lowest costs in the world,” he said.
“We need to move toward it being one of the lowest carbon sources of oil in the world.”
An employee with the Pathways Alliance explains how a proposed carbon capture and storage project based in Cold Lake works.
It would be a mistake, however, to think the industry was doing cartwheels after the list was revealed.
Given the benefits now coming from the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion — shrinking the oil price differential on Canadian crude, while opening export markets in Asia — an oil line should have been included, said Brian Schmidt, CEO of Tamarack Valley Energy.
“I’m quite disappointed because (the price) differentials, as we put more oil production on, we are going to need space. And we’re still beholden to the U.S., in that we sell so much crude there,” Schmidt said.
“I feel really good about the gas side and we need those projects . . . The oil egress remains an issue.”
Until the pipeline idea has a private-sector backer, it will likely be stuck on the sidelines, although Smith sounded confident it will go ahead — but emphasized federal policies such as the oilpatch emissions cap and tanker ban must be changed.
The premier said she was encouraged by the initial federal list and her meeting with the prime minister on Wednesday evening.
“When I looked at the first five projects, I thought, finally they get it because it’s all the projects that have been difficult to build. It’s mining projects, it’s LNG Canada, and I think that demonstrates a real shift in the focus of this government,” the premier said.
“I would just ask people to be patient.”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, left, greets Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, right, during the 2025 summer meetings of Canada’s Premiers at Deerhurst Resort in Huntsville, Ont., on Tuesday, July 22, 2025.
For gas producers, advancing the second phase of LNG Canada would be significant, boosting the amount of gas being exported out of Western Canada to Asia to more than four billion cubic feet per day, said Ian Archer, an associate director with S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“I think it is going to happen, but it may not happen as quickly as some people may like,” he said.
More liquefied natural gas projects will also be required in the future, along with an oil export pipeline, added Tristan Goodman, head of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada.
“As a general first step, I think this is constructive,” said Goodman.
“We’ve got to be a bit patient . . . To not have additional LNG projects and to not see an oil pipeline, that would be extremely frustrating.”
ARC Energy Research Institute deputy director Peter Tertzakian during the Global Business Forum at the Banff Springs Hotel on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.
And while the list garnered much of Thursday’s attention, the federal government’s change in attitude toward promoting natural resource development was also noteworthy.
“The Carney government is looking for quick wins right now, but they are not shutting the door to an oil pipeline,” said energy economist Peter Tertzakian, founder and president of Studio.Energy.
“It is a very significant moment in terms of tone but there is a lot of work to do, to put the proverbial ducks in a row, to even propose building a pipe right now on the oil side.
“But with a continued positive tone, I believe it could happen.”
Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.