Published on
September 14, 2025
In 2025, international tourism to the United States is showing a clear divide in visitor trends. Travelers from Mexico, Colombia, Spain, Japan, and Italy are driving a notable surge in arrivals, supporting key destinations such as New York, Chicago, and Denver. This growth is being fueled by new international flight connections, rising interest in U.S. cultural and leisure experiences, and targeted marketing strategies aimed at emerging global markets.
Conversely, Canadian tourism to the United States has dropped significantly, putting pressure on border cities and regional economies. Contributing factors include stricter immigration enforcement, political rhetoric perceived as unwelcoming, and safety concerns. Cities and states that traditionally rely on Canadian visitors, including Las Vegas, Minnesota, and Buffalo, are facing economic strain, prompting focused campaigns to attract travelers back. These contrasting trends underscore the dual challenge for U.S. tourism: capitalizing on emerging international markets while addressing the issues deterring longtime neighboring visitors.
Declining International Arrivals
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, international air travel to the United States has fallen by 7% compared to 2024. Travel research firm Tourism Economics forecasts that the country could experience 8.2% fewer international arrivals in 2025, placing overseas visitor numbers well below levels seen in 2019. Analysts warn that this decline could have significant economic repercussions for cities and states that depend heavily on international tourism revenue.
The slump is particularly pronounced among travelers from neighboring Canada. Historically one of the largest sources of international visitors, Canadian arrivals have dropped sharply, with year-to-date figures showing a 25% decline. This decrease is being felt acutely in border regions and destinations with strong cross-border tourism ties.
Impact on Key Regions
Several U.S. cities and states are experiencing substantial effects from declining Canadian travel. Las Vegas, long a top destination for Canadian visitors, has seen an 18% reduction in flights operated by Canadian carriers. As Canada has traditionally been the city’s largest international source market, the decline is placing additional pressure on the local tourism economy.
In Minnesota, which benefits significantly from Canadian tourism, a recent industry survey found that 62% of tourism businesses expect fewer visitors from the north this year. Similarly, Buffalo, located along the U.S.-Canada border, has initiated targeted marketing campaigns designed to entice Canadian travelers to return, highlighting the ongoing efforts by border cities to offset the decline.
Growth in Alternative Markets
Despite declines in some regions, other cities are seeing modest growth in international tourism, driven by visitors from markets beyond North America.
New York City anticipates welcoming 64.7 million visitors in 2025, a slight increase from 64.5 million in 2024, even though Canadian arrivals are projected to fall by nearly 19%. Chicago has seen year-to-date growth supported by travelers from Colombia, Spain, Japan, and Italy. Denver has benefited from the addition of new international flight routes, leading to higher foreign arrivals. Meanwhile, travel from Mexico remains steady, reflecting a degree of resilience despite long-standing political tensions between the two countries.
These shifts demonstrate that while the U.S. is losing some traditional markets, it is simultaneously expanding tourism opportunities from other regions. Diversifying visitor sources is becoming increasingly crucial for destinations seeking to stabilize revenue and maintain occupancy levels.
Economic Implications
International tourism continues to play a vital role in the U.S. economy. In the first half of 2025, foreign visitors spent nearly $127 billion on travel and tourism-related goods and services, marking a new record and highlighting the significant contribution of international travelers to economic growth.
However, declines from major source markets such as Canada could strain local economies, particularly in states and cities that rely heavily on cross-border travel. Reduced visitor numbers affect hotels, restaurants, attractions, and other service sectors, with ripple effects across broader employment and business revenue.
Perception and Safety Concerns
Beyond economic and policy factors, perception and safety concerns are influencing travel decisions. Reports of international visitors being detained by immigration authorities have created unease among potential travelers. Comments about Canada and the U.S. relationship have further complicated cross-border travel sentiment, discouraging some from planning visits.
These concerns are shaping traveler behavior, with some opting to delay trips, reduce their length of stay, or choose alternative destinations entirely. For border regions and cities with high reliance on Canadian tourism, these trends pose immediate challenges for recovery and growth.
Looking Ahead
Experts warn that without improvements in international perception and more welcoming travel policies, the United States could face continued declines in inbound tourism. While certain cities are seeing growth by attracting visitors from emerging markets, the overall outlook for international arrivals in 2025 remains challenging.
To reverse the downward trend, the U.S. tourism sector must focus on diversifying target markets, enhancing visitor experiences, and strengthening its global reputation. For regions heavily reliant on cross-border travel from Canada, strategic marketing initiatives and proactive engagement with international travelers will be crucial in offsetting losses and supporting sustainable long-term growth.
Mexico, Colombia, Spain, Japan, and Italy are driving a strong influx of international travelers to the United States, boosting major cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver, while a sharp decline in Canadian visitors is straining border cities and regional economies.
The contrasting trends in U.S. tourism in 2025 highlight both challenges and opportunities. While the strong influx of visitors from Mexico, Colombia, Spain, Japan, and Italy is helping to sustain major cities and diversify the market, the sharp decline in Canadian travelers is straining border regions and traditional tourism hubs. Addressing safety concerns, improving cross-border relations, and expanding outreach to emerging international markets will be key for sustaining growth and balancing the nation’s tourism landscape.
