Russia-Belarus Exercise – Hidden Military Mobilization?
Express newspaper
14/09/2025 14:18
About 13.000 soldiers from Belarus and Russia have begun military exercises, Zapad, near the Polish border. The maneuvers are seen as a provocation to the West.
It is the first joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus on Belarusian territory since 2021. It is named Zapad, the Russian word for West, and involves practicing military activities in regions close to Europe’s most important borders, including significant deployment of equipment and troops.
The Zapad exercise takes place every four years. This time, the exercise comes at a very tense time – a week of massive Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian targets; two days after Russian drones penetrated deep into Poland. That is precisely why NATO countries are worried. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country has not been so close to an “open conflict” since World War II. In response to Zapad, Poland has closed its border with Belarus and begun its own military exercises, which it calls “Iron Defender.”
Russia is holding the exercise with its most important European ally, Belarus, on the territory of both countries, and it is considered the most important military exercise for the armed forces of both countries. Officially, the exercise aims to simulate potential conflicts and prepare the armed forces for them.
After Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, now years later, military analysts see the 2021 exercise as preparation for an invasion. Russia also attacked from the northwest, that is, from Belarusian territory. The leadership in Kiev now considers it impossible for Russia to invade again from Belarus, as Ukraine is now defending its border very well, says Andriy Demchenko, spokesman for the Border Guard of Ukraine.
Ukraine is following the maneuvers carefully.
“Our units, of course, are monitoring what is happening there, to what extent this maneuver further increases the risk for our country,” the spokesman said. “We can already see that there are Russian troops and military equipment on the other side of the border.”
In the early days of the invasion three and a half years ago, Russian troops advanced from Belarus, first to the site of the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant, then further towards Kiev. Russian troops stopped just a few kilometers north and west of the Ukrainian capital. But after a few weeks, Ukraine managed to expel Russian troops from there. Russia moved most of these troops to the Donbas, on the front in eastern Ukraine.
New reservists for the front?
At the very least, there could be provocations on the border during the Russian-Belarusian maneuvers, Ukrainian military expert Vasyl Pechnyo says on the Espreso TV channel. “Moreover, the exercise could represent a kind of hidden mobilization for Russia,” Pechnyo warns. The Russian military could send reservists to the exercise without saying that they are actually intended for what Russia calls a special military operation in Ukraine. “And after that, they would be sent, for example, to the front in eastern Ukraine,” the military expert says. This would provide Russia with new soldiers and allow it to intensify its attacks on the contested front lines.
Main goal: to intimidate the West
According to Kiev, this maneuver is intended to intimidate Ukraine’s Western partners. The Belarusian military leadership has announced that it will also practice the use of nuclear weapons and new medium-range missiles.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “the Russians are testing what they can do with impunity and how NATO countries will react.” According to him, “testing NATO’s reaction could be part of the plans for this military exercise.” /DW