Non-Opec-Plus: Brazil, Norway Spur Crude Production Breakout

Nonaligned producers are proceeding further on a record-breaking streak. In August, liquids output by these countries, grouped together as non-Opec-plus, amounted to 52.4 million barrels per day excluding refining gains, a preliminary assessment shows. This is a new monthly record and the first time output by non-Opec-plus surpassed the 52 million b/d threshold. Compared to July, August’s result represents a 640,000 b/d improvement, while versus August 2024, it is 1.3 million b/d higher. Crude output by non-Opec-plus was 36.7 million b/d — also a record — an increase of 330,000 b/d over July and 1.1 million b/d over August 2024.

Total liquids output by nonaligned producers is forecast at 51.81 million b/d this year, an increase of 1.3 million b/d over 2024 and some 500,000 b/d more than the forecast global demand growth for the year. Next year’s growth in liquids output is expected to come in a bit higher at 1.38 million b/d to 53.19 million b/d as countries like the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana continue their upward momentum.

Brazil is enjoying a surge in crude output. Official data shows that production amounted to 3.95 million b/d in July, a 200,000 b/d gain on June and a new record. August is expected to improve on this and push the country over 4 million b/d. To wit, crude exports from Brazil last month were a record 2.36 million b/d, according to Kpler, up 110,000 b/d over July, and the ship tracker is forecasting that September loadings will surpass 2.5 million b/d.

More records are expected into the fourth quarter as Brazil’s four big fields launch this year’s ramp up. Energy Intelligence now estimates that Brazilian crude production will average 3.83 million b/d this year, a gain of 470,000 b/d that will cement the country’s role as the crude oil growth driver outside Opec-plus. In 2026, crude production is forecast to reach 4.14 million b/d, or about 200,000 b/d less that China’s anticipated output. When including biofuels, Brazil this year is poised to become the world’s fifth-largest producer, a status that it failed to secure last year after several upstream setbacks.

Norway also experienced a bump. Official data for July shows that crude production was 1.96 million b/d, a muscular 280,000 b/d increase on June and the highest level in over 15 years, in large part due to the 220,000 b/d Johan Castberg field launched earlier this year. Kpler shipping data shows that Castberg deliveries averaged 120,000 b/d in June-August, suggesting there is further upside to its production.

In the US, crude production in June was 13.58 million b/d, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is 330,000 b/d higher than June 2024. July and August, however, are expected to see a small dip as West Texas Intermediate in the mid-$60s challenges smaller producers with higher break-even costs. US crude output is expected to dip 40,000 b/d in 2026.

Meanwhile, US NGL output in June was 6.57 million b/d, EIA data showed, a 340,000 b/d increase compared to the same month in 2024. For the year, US liquids production is seen at 22.34 million b/d, up 470,000 b/d year on year.