We’re witnessing Putin’s reckless bid to get the Ukraine deal he wants

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1. Russian [drones shot down over Polish skies](https://eur02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Fnews%2Frussian-drones-shot-down-poland-europe-open-conflict-3909352&data=05%7C02%7CKit.Gillet%40theipaper.com%7C55489d8c8d75434c768208ddf464889c%7C0f3a4c644dc54a768d4152d85ca158a5%7C0%7C0%7C638935434829426609%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=%2BotWp5jCzj02YhOf3CLzX5ehq5kelDy0SO8uAHf86uw%3D&reserved=0), a drone breaching Romania’s airspace, and [military exercises in Nato-bordering Belarus](https://eur02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fputin-wargames-europe-doorstep-nato-3916855&data=05%7C02%7CKit.Gillet%40theipaper.com%7C55489d8c8d75434c768208ddf464889c%7C0f3a4c644dc54a768d4152d85ca158a5%7C0%7C0%7C638935434829440491%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=KtDw2gl5BIkYrEQtR4TsZ81v3m9OKYlwOcYspnKWn8w%3D&reserved=0) involving Russia’s [much-hyped experimental Oreshnik](https://eur02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Finews.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Frussia-oreshnik-missile-multiple-warheads-3394906&data=05%7C02%7CKit.Gillet%40theipaper.com%7C55489d8c8d75434c768208ddf464889c%7C0f3a4c644dc54a768d4152d85ca158a5%7C0%7C0%7C638935434829454610%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=YFsOYdrgZiZtfthRamQfipztLn0bKUsbORSNN2oNxv4%3D&reserved=0) missile.

   Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk may have warned that his country is “the closest to an armed conflict since the Second World War”, but rather than a prelude to an attack on Nato, this is negotiation, Putin-style.

   Last week, 19 drones crossed into Polish airspace. This was too many to simply be the result of targeting error or electronic warfare driving them off course. Nor was it likely just an attempt to sweep through Poland to attack Ukrainian targets from the west.

   Then, on Saturday, another Russian drone penetrated Romanian airspace before crashing harmlessly, probably the result of a malfunction. This was a Geran-2, an attack drone, but most or all of those over Poland seem to have been Gerbera models, a cheap decoy or reconnaissance drone built of plywood and polystyrene.

   Their cheapness is part of their appeal. One of the reasons why the Romanian air force shadowed rather than shot down “their” drone, while making sure it would not hit a populated target, was because their F-16 fighters were armed with AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles. It is not just that Romania has fewer than 100 of these, but that they cost £300,000 each, while a Geran costs a fraction of that.

   The use of Gerbera drones over Poland – if it was indeed a deliberate action – suggests the goal was reconnaissance and warning; it was not so much about testing how quickly and effectively Polish and allied air forces could respond, but political reconnaissance. How strong, how rapid, how united would the West’s response be?

   As it was, Nato acquitted itself reasonably well. It recognised that this was not an armed attack, but also moved quickly to bolster air defences along their eastern flank.

2. isn’t there a technology that disables drones? why aren’t countries like ukraine using these solutions?

3. Well, at least one of the indirect goals has been achieved by the Kremlin – some of the air defense systems will be deployed in Poland, not in Ukraine.
   P.s. The photo of the house – it was not destroyed by a drone, but by the storm.

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