At Current Rate, Russia’s Entire Oil Refining Industry Faces Collapse Within a Year

by logicaceman

48 comments
  1. Good, they finance murder every day and should be burned to the ground. As Ukraine fights for freedom the USA has military observers in Belarus! Who in the world would ever believe republicans would become Russian allies?

  2. The only thing keeping Ukraine from striking the oil was Europe’s need for it. They have finally found other sources and Ukraine is free to attack the refineries, depots, pipelines and pumping stations without any concern they’re impacting the European suppliers to Ukraine… except for Hungary and somewhat Slovakia.

  3. Must be the reason they try to get back the S-400 from Turkey.

  4. Lol I wonder what their plan is once their oil infrastructure is completely decimated?

    Oil is such a huge industry, and they just decided it’s no longer important (apart from AK47 air defence). Oil workers are already very afraid of working because it’s like playing Russian Roulette. Every night there’s a chance Baba Yaga comes to visit and put them to sleep.

    They’re literally going to bankrupt their country, and millions of people will starve to death. The poverty will be off the charts. The government/mafia will no longer be able to pay people for their loyalty, and they can’t enforce their mob rules if they can’t actually pay the mob’s wages.

    I still can’t believe Ukraine is cutting this cancer out. Every day another critical piece of equipment gets destroyed, and they simply have no answer for it other than attacking Ukrainian civilians and sending some decoys to Poland.

    Ukraine is holding some cards here. Hope they can liberate Crimea soon.

  5. It’s what they need to do. We already see the animosity between Russians, and fights breaking out over fuel.

    I feel like the most likely way this war will end is a situation like what happened to Nicolae Ceausescu, and that the people will eventually turn on the dictator Putin and lynch him.

  6. At current rate…there is a distinction to be made between total destruction and the rest. Russia can buy spare parts from Iran and China and probably using other ways bypassing sanctions. Russis does it for spare parts from Boeing and Airbus, maintaining planes in **Kazakhstan…**

    Ukraine needs much more punch and much more destructive power. Where are the Flamingos ? The real disaster for Russia will be the total destruction of the 3 LNG facilities but the main on is far away on the eastern border 3000 kilometers from Ukraine.

    Yes there is many parts from western firms but if you look at Iran and its energy industry after almost 40 years of sanctions….even outdated it’s functionning.

    Germany in 1944 was producing much more fighter planes than in 1943..sustaining carpet bombing night and day…but was missing fuel and pilots…

  7. So better help Ukraine to pick up the pace. One year is awfully long with troops defending the frontlines. On the upside, Ukraine has prepared the battlefield pretty well the past months. Russian air defense is considerably weaker than it was. So Ukraine will be more successful in hitting refineries and transport infrastructure. Adding to that, Ukraine just started mass production of several long range weapons. A few nights of perfect drone storms and Russia’s only bigger source of money is dried out.

  8. With more help I’m sure they could get it down to 3 months

  9. Lol awesome. Guess Putin wasn’t quite as smart as he thought, the smug little worm is a stain

  10. The effects of a systematic destruction of the Russian oil and gas industry are linear as long as there is spare capacity (vis-à-vis demand) and capacity to repair broken and damaged systems. Once the systematic destruction and sanctions catch up with spare capacity the negative effects become geometric, at one point it becomes ‘catastrophic’ and society grinds to a halt. Even with rationing and strategic reserves it can only postpone the inevitable collapse of a fuel based economy for so long; assuming a constant or accelerating rate of destruction.

    In this particular facet of the war time is wholly on Ukraine’s side and I doubt putin would actively dedicate a disproportionate amount of its various air defence systems to guard refineries, storage or export terminals.

    Once the hardship of lacking refined goods become solid I hope Ukraine can take out Russia’s crude oil terminals; then the state finances really will begin to wobble.

  11. Sniff sniff… what’s that smell? Burning oil? No, that’s the smell of Putin’s inevitable defeat.

  12. A year if Ukraine slacks off targeting refineries.

    Probably less if they continue or increase their attacks.

    **Слава до України !!**

  13. A year? That’s still a long time, especially keeping in mind that the current pace has to be kept.

  14. Double the intensity so they cant make it to the next summer! Fuck russia

  15. What prevents russians to build makeshift refineries in the far east? Is that feasible?

  16. So you’re saying we need to ramp this up? Alright, let’s go Ukraine!

  17. You see, the “current” rate is doing nothing but accelerate

  18. Double down on the attacks and let’s see it collapse this winter.

  19. Hopefully Ukraine will start using their flamingos and they can collapse it by Christmas.

  20. How many refineries even still function? I feel like every week we’re hearing about another one being hit.

  21. I thought the economy was supposed to crash after a year I don’t understand how they can keep going and still have so much support to even begin new conflicts as well I don’t get it

  22. Call it a hunch, but sitting here wondering if Xi would be bold enough to move on Putin if weakened enough. They could become the largest nation on Earth.

  23. I totally support the initiative. Making projections based in linear extrapolations of current trends is never going to pan out, however. All actions to effect a complex system such as a nation’s hydrocarbon refining processes will always be subject to diminishing returns, requiring greater and greater efforts by Ukraine to have equal impacts on production capacity.

    Which is not to say it’s not worth doing. Just that we have to temper our expectations of completely collapsing the ruZZian petrochemical/refining capability. Ukraine only needs to impact it enough to siginifacntly impact the their revenue generation which funds this war. Also their military’s ability to maneuver. Plus make average ruZZians more acutely aware of the cost to them of supporting this illegal and unprovoked aggression against a sovereign state. Based on what I see, I think they are already coming close to that. The west now has to step up to cancel out ruZZia’s ability to export the remaining petrochemical products it can get to its shipping terminals

  24. Naive question but, how come they didn’t start with this sooner? I imagine it had something to do with the rapid development of UAVs, which weren’t as prevalent in the beginning?

  25. Not to mention the effect this will have on the farming industry. Can’t sell potatoes for $1 when it costs $2 to harvest.

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