Has Japan really swung to the right? Robert Nordström explores how the collapse of one-party dominance has fuelled European-style populism — and opened the door to wider social change
On 20 July 2024, Japan held elections for its Upper House. Headlines focused almost entirely on the success of new far-right party Sanseitō and its anti-immigration, anti-gender rhetoric. The party’s leader, Sohei Kamiya, became famous for praising Donald Trump. He blamed gender equality policies for Japan’s falling birthrate, and warned voters about a ‘silent invasion’ of immigrants.
Crediting Donald Trump as an inspiration for his ‘bold political style’, Sohei Kamiya is the primary voice of political party Sanseitō, which saw a surge in support in the July 2025 elections for Japan’s Upper House.
These headlines, however, don’t fully explain the changing nature of Japanese politics that underlies Sanseitō’s success. The general elections of October 2024 and July 2025 signal more complex long-term changes in Japanese politics, many of which have gone largely unnoticed by international media.
Japan’s changing political landscape
The 2024 Lower House elections and 2025 Upper House elections led to significant changes in Japan’s political landscape. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government, which has governed Japan continuously since December 2012, generally faced little real opposition during this period. Yet while this may have been a period of political stability, it was also characterised by conservatism and nationalism. The dominance of the conservative LDP meant there was little hope for alternative views to be heard. Another apparent effect of LDP’s long-term dominance was that the number of women in politics remained woefully low.
Japan’s era of one-party dominance has ended. In the 2024 Upper House elections, seats were won by 11 different parties — most of which were formed only in the last decade
The elections of 2024 and 2025 brought an end to this era of one-party dominance. They ushered in an era of multi-partism not seen before in Japanese politics. The LDP-led ruling coalition lost its majority in both houses of the Japanese Diet. Instead, votes and seats were split over a vast number of parties of differing ideologies. In the 2024 Lower House elections, ten different parties won seats. In the 2025 Upper House elections, 11 parties won seats. Most of these parties were formed in the last decade, indicating a profound shift in Japan’s political landscape.
Seats by party, Japanese 2024 and 2025 general elections
Only half of Upper House seats are contested every three years. The graph shows seat proportions of those that were up for election. Figures based on 2024 and 2025 UTokyo-Asahi (UTAS) politician surveys.
One significant positive result of these last two elections has been the substantial increase in the number of women elected. The 2024 and 2025 elections recorded the highest-ever number of women in their respective Houses. In the 2025 Upper House elections, the number of newly elected women exceeded 30% for the first time. In the 2024 Lower House elections, meanwhile, the number of women increased from less than 10% to almost 16%. Turnout in the 2025 election was also notably higher than in the previous election.
To unpack how this has influenced Japanese politics, we can turn to survey data. Since 2003, UTAS surveys have asked candidates and voters about their views on major political issues in every Japanese general election. These surveys thus provide us with a unique window into how policy positions shift over time.
In recent times, on almost all political issues, elected politicians’ positions have become more liberal. The one exception is immigration: in Japan, fear of a ‘foreign invasion’ remains high
In recent times, elected politicians’ policy positions have also become notably more liberal. On social issues such as the right of married couples to hold separate surnames, and support for same-sex marriage, the 2024 and 2025 elections produced some of the most progressive legislatures ever seen in Japan. The increases were driven by the larger proportion of legislators representing liberal and left-leaning parties elected. The only issue on which policy positions became more conservative in 2024 and 2025 was on views towards foreigners. On this issue, there was intense backlash, especially in the 2025 election.
Proportion of elected females, and policy positions of Japanese legislatures, by election
Blue bars show the share of women elected in each election. Policy positions indicate the proportion of legislators ‘in favour’ or ‘somewhat in favour’. Graph shows positions only for years included in the survey. October 2024 and July 2025 elections highlighted in red.
Looking over the policy positions in UTAS voter surveys, we see substantial evidence of right-wing backlash against immigration and gender-related matters. Compared with the 2023 election survey, the early 2025 survey reveals a substantial drop in the number of respondents saying they were supportive of separate surnames and same-sex marriage.
However, views on these issues have been becoming more progressive over the last decade. Opinions thus remain significantly more progressive than they were only a few years ago.
Voter policy positions in post-election voter surveys
Values show the share of respondents ‘in favour’ or ‘somewhat in favour’. Positions are shown only for years policies were included in the survey. The 2025 survey is highlighted in red.
What do these results tell us? Japanese politics is becoming more similar to other developed nations, with growing polarisation around policy positions. When the LDP was dominant, there was little room for these disagreements to come out into the open.
The same type of right-wing populism which has become so ingrained in Europe has also penetrated Japanese politics in parties like Sanseitō
However, as opposition parties gain more influence over policy, such divisions have become more visible. One result of this is that the same type of right-wing populism that has become so ingrained in Europe has also penetrated Japanese politics in parties like Sanseitō. At the same time, Japanese politics is diversifying. There are more women in office than ever before, which encourages open debate on many issues. How the current government, led by LDP moderate Shigeru Ishiba, aims to tackle these issues remains to be seen.