Political chess
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew into Warsaw on Monday to talk with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski.
“It was made very clear during the talks that in this situation, the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us, is being replaced by the logic of security. And that was expressed very clearly by Minister Sikorski,” Polish foreign ministry spokesperson Paweł Wroński said. He added that the Chinese side had made no direct demands to reopen the border.
Beijing had already said before the ministers met that it hoped Poland would “take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of the [rail link on the Belarus border] and the stability of international industrial and supply chains,” stressing that the China-Europe Railway Express was a “flagship project” in China’s cooperation with both Poland and the EU.
But China isn’t the only player in the game. “There is also the United States, and we have a very close relationship with them. I’m quite sure Washington is more than happy to see the routes closed — at least temporarily — because they have been pressuring the European Union to introduce additional tariffs on China over Russian oil and gas exports to China,” said Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency.
“I believe they are pleased that instead of tariffs, the main land gateway for Chinese goods is now blocked for a while,” he added. “I’m also quite sure the Americans are smiling and supporting the Polish government in not rushing to reopen it — at least not very soon.”
Europe is also at the table, but as Krawczyk noted, “I haven’t seen any reaction from any country — nothing from the Commission and nothing from the capitals. So maybe Europe as well is not unhappy to see the main gateway blocked.”