Weekly Significant Activity Report – September 20, 2025

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1. SS: This post analyzes some significant geopolitical developments from September 13-20 involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

   Major events for this week included:

   1. Russia continued to test NATO’s resolve to defend the Baltic states with incursions of Estonian airspace, while simultaneously challenging the alliance’s northern defenses with extensive Arctic exercises during Zapad-2025.
   2. China ratcheted up pressure on US trade negotiators with new scrutiny and restrictions on Nvidia products, and a framework for a TikTok deal which withholds the company’s core algorithm.
   3. Iran suppressed a revival of the “Woman Life Freedom” protests on its third anniversary.
   4. Iran made an unsuccessful last-minute bid to delay the snapback of UN sanctions.
   5. New reports suggest North Korea has received Russian technology to advance its development of nuclear submarines.

   Things to keep a close eye on in coming days:

   1. Who exactly will control the TikTok algorithm? The US now claims it will, but China has given contradictory statements that it will be licensed.
   2. What will NATO’s response be to repeated Russian airspace incursions? Will these provocations escalate?

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