THERE are ominous signs that NATO is being pulled closer to a military confrontation with Russia, as the war in Ukraine continues to escalate.
Incursions of Russian drones and fighter jets in the airspace of Poland and, more recently, Estonia, both NATO member-countries, have prompted the alliance to heighten vigilance against airborne threats.
On Sept. 10, 20 Russian drones entered Poland’s airspace. The Polish military said it shot down most of the drones, with the rest failing to inflict any damage.
It was Warsaw’s first direct military engagement with Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
Polish officials denounced the incursion as “an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of our citizens.”
Russia denies it launched drones at Polish targets, saying they were aimed at a military-industrial complex in western Ukraine.
Last Saturday, Russian MIG-31s flew over the Estonian island of Vaindloo in the Baltic Sea for 12 minutes, ignoring warnings from NATO fighter planes to turn back.
While it did not pose a military threat, NATO believes the Russian jets were probing its air defenses and response capability.
The incident did not escape the attention of United States President Donald Trump. “I don’t like when that happens,” Trump told reporters. “It could be big trouble, but I’ll let you know later.”
The American leader has had a falling out with Russian President Vladimir Putin following Putin’s refusal to accept Trump’s terms to de-escalate the war in Ukraine. That gave Putin the opportunity to increase and intensify drone strikes against Kyiv.
Few observers see the conflict in Ukraine spilling over to Poland and its other neighbors that belong to NATO’s fold. But it has sharpened the 32-member bloc’s awareness that a shooting war with Russia could flare up anytime, and that it must be fully prepared for it.
For close to seven decades, NATO and Russia have been locked in a geopolitical chess match, content with trading pieces to gain tactical advantage, and avoiding the inevitable showdown in the endgame.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was born in 1949, when the Cold War was beginning to grip Europe. The Soviet Union had consolidated communist states in Eastern Europe into a powerful bloc and did not hide its ambition to dominate the continent.
To stem the communist tide, the US and its Western allies banded together to form NATO.
NATO provided the deterrence that prevented the Soviet Union from imposing its will on Europe. Today, it is still standing guard, this time against threats from Russia.
Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty states that an “armed attack” against one or more NATO members in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all, requiring a retaliatory response that includes the use of armed force.
A consensus among NATO’s members is required to invoke Article 5, which was only called up just once — in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the US.
The Russian drones over Poland could justify the invocation of Article 5. But NATO is not likely to take that critical step.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, is urging for a strong NATO reaction, saying that Moscow was pushing “the boundaries of what is possible” by aiming drones at Poland.
“The Russians must feel the consequences. Russia must feel that the war cannot be expanded and will have to be ended,” Zelenskyy said.
If NATO is reluctant to invoke Article 5, Poland’s foreign minister is suggesting a more pliable option: enforcing a no-fly zone in Ukraine to protect it from further drone attacks.
The deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, has scoffed at the suggestion. “The implementation of the provocative idea of Kyiv and other idiots about creating a ‘no-fly zone over Ukraine’ and the ability for NATO countries to shoot down our UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) will mean only one thing — a war between NATO and Russia,” Medvedev said.
In yet another act of provocation, Russia has begun large-scale military exercises in Belarus, raising security concerns for neighboring NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
The chess match continues.